Morning Distribution for Thursday, October 1, 2020

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Thursday, October 1, 2020 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [Ohio Holds Limited In-Person Voting On Primary Day During COVID-19 Pandemic]( [We’ve Had 56 Statewide Elections During The Pandemic. Here’s What We Learned From Them.]( By [Nathaniel Rakich]( The 2020 primary season finally ended last month, meaning there have now been 56 statewide elections (presidential primaries, state-level primaries and even the occasional runoff) since the coronavirus outbreak was [declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization]( in mid-March — dress rehearsals of sorts for opening night on Nov. 3. And while, through mid-July, these “pandemic primaries” had an [inconsistent record of success]( more recent elections have settled into more of a groove. Here are three takeaways from a primary season like no other, and what they could mean for the general election: 1. Mail voting is still way up, but more people are voting in person The most obvious change that states have made to the way elections are held during the pandemic is to encourage mail voting. Going into the year, 16 states did not allow anyone who wanted to to vote absentee, but only two (Louisiana and Texas) kept that restriction in place for their primary after the pandemic hit. And voters largely embraced the new method of voting: In every election except Colorado, Oregon and Washington (which already conducted elections by mail before the pandemic), a greater share of people — and usually many more people — cast absentee ballots in 2020 than in the equivalent election in 2016. Overall, in 44 of the 55 elections for which we have data, at least 40 percent of the ballots cast were absentees. And 15 of the elections were almost entirely (95+ percent) conducted via absentee ballot. Mail voting spiked in 2020 primaries, especially early on Share of ballots cast absentee in statewide elections held during the pandemic, and how much that share increased from 2016 Date State Absentee Access share Absentee Change from 2016 March 17 AZ Anyone could vote absentee 89% +8 FL Anyone could vote absentee 46 +16 IL Anyone could vote absentee 9 +6 April 7 WI Anyone could vote absentee 75 +65 April 10 AK Mailed ballots 100 +100 April 17 WY Mailed ballots 100 +100 April 28 OH Mailed instructions 99 +85 May 2 KS Mailed ballots 100 +100 May 12 NE Mailed ballot applications 84 +63 May 19 OR Mailed ballots 100 0 May 22 HI Mailed ballots 100 +100 June 2 ID Mailed ballot applications 100 +86 IN Anyone could vote absentee 51 +35 IA Mailed ballot applications 78 +59 MD Mailed ballots 97 +93 MT Mailed ballots 100 +30 NM Mailed ballot applications 63 +56 PA Mailed instructions 51 +48 RI Mailed ballot applications 83 +79 SD Mailed ballot applications 58 +44 DC Mailed ballot applications 71 +64 June 9 GA Mailed ballot applications 48 — NV Mailed ballots 100 +89 ND Mailed ballot applications 100 +73 SC Anyone could vote absentee 22 +10 WV* Mailed ballot applications 50 +48 June 23 KY Mailed instructions 72 +69 VA Anyone could vote absentee 21 — June 30 CO Mailed ballots 99 0 OK Anyone could vote absentee 14 +10 UT Mailed ballots 100 — July 7 DE Mailed ballot applications 45 +42 NJ Mailed ballots or applications 88 +83 July 11 LA Excuse required 19 +16 July 14 AL Anyone could vote absentee 5 — ME Anyone could vote absentee 60 +50 TX Excuse required 16 — Aug. 4 AZ Mailed ballot applications 88 +4 KS Anyone could vote absentee 41 +28 MI Mailed ballot applications 65 +30 MO Anyone could vote absentee 15 +9 WA Mailed ballots 100 0 Aug. 6 TN* Anyone could vote absentee 10 +8 Aug. 8 HI Mailed ballots 99 +37 Aug. 11 CT Mailed ballot applications 59 — MN Anyone could vote absentee 59 +45 VT Mailed ballot applications 73 +54 WI* Anyone could vote absentee 64 +52 Aug. 18 AK Anyone could vote absentee 36 +25 FL Anyone could vote absentee 60 +17 WY Mailed ballot applications 47 +25 Sept. 1 MA Mailed ballot applications 48 +40 Sept. 8 NH Anyone could vote absentee 30 +25 RI Anyone could vote absentee 41 +36 Sept. 15 DE Mailed ballot applications 43 +38 *2020 data is preliminary. Elections highlighted in gray did not offer any in-person voting or offered it only to those who could not vote by mail (e.g., people with disabilities or without mailing addresses). No 2020 data was available in New York, so it has been omitted from the table. No 2016 data was available in Utah. Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia, Texas and Virginia did not have a 2016 election to make an apples-to-apples comparison to. Figures do not necessarily reflect the percentage of ballots cast by mail. Most states do not distinguish between absentee ballots cast by mail and those cast in person at a local election office. In addition, Arizona and Nebraska do not distinguish between in-person early voting and absentee voting. Source: State election offices But in recent months, there have been noticeably fewer of these universal mail-voting elections. Although a significant chunk of the electorate is still choosing to vote absentee, there have been more numbers like Connecticut’s 59 percent absentee-voting rate than Maryland’s 97 percent absentee-voting rate from earlier in the summer. Overall, 74 percent of voters cast absentee ballots in an average pandemic primary through the end of June — but only 50 percent have done so in the average statewide election since then. And that latter number would be even lower if it weren’t for the presence of states like Arizona and Washington that vote heavily absentee or by mail even under normal circumstances. The absentee-voting rate has increased by an average of 32 percentage points in primaries since July 1, whereas it increased by an average of 55 points in primaries between March 17 and June 30. This may partly be because people have adjusted to our new reality and [have grown more comfortable]( reengaging in in-person activities — from eating out to seeing friends to, yes, voting. But of course, it’s also because states are more open now than they were in the spring. For instance, as you can see from the shaded rows in the table, several states eliminated in-person voting altogether in their April, May and June primaries (although some still offered the option for voters who physically could not vote by mail, such as people with disabilities or without mailing addresses). And even those that did not, such as [Kentucky]( [Montana]( [Nevada]( [New Mexico]( and [Washington, D.C.]( still decreased access to in-person voting by closing many polling places. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- The Latest Data Latest Forecast [Latest Forecast]( How popular is Donald Trump? [How popular is Donald Trump?]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.