FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, May 17, 2020 [1. Without A Vaccine, Herd Immunity Won’t Save Us]( [HERD-IMMUNITY-4×3]( Daniel Arlein has already had COVID-19. In March, the 36-year-old small business owner and DJ, who lives in Brooklyn, tested positive for the viral infection and suffered through two weeks of flu-like symptoms. [Read more]( [2. If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think He’ll Win?]( [SlackChat_0513-4×3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [3. Two Special Elections On Tuesday Could Hint At Another Blue Wave In 2020]( [EU-SPECIAL-0511_4x3]( Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump in most early polls, Democrats are leading polls of the generic congressional ballot by 2018-level margins, and general disapproval of the administration’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic threatens to sink Republican prospects across the board. On Tuesday, we’ll get a taste of whether Democrats’ electoral advantage on paper will hold up in practice, as California and Wisconsin hold special elections for two vacant congressional seats. The main event is in the California 25th Congressional District, a bellwether seat in the north Los Angeles suburbs, where both parties see a chance to add to their ranks in the House. But if Democrats are also competitive in the quickly reddening, rural Wisconsin 7th Congressional District, it could signal another blue wave in the fall. Here’s everything you need to know about the two races. [Read more]( [4. What To Make Of Those New Senate Polls That Have Democrats Way Ahead]( [IowaStateFair]( Before you read any further, let’s get one thing straight: It’s still pretty early to trust general-election polls. In addition to the small but significant error inherent in polls taken six months before Election Day, the coronavirus pandemic has made the fall political environment extremely uncertain. But some recent Senate polls have been so eye-popping that we’re compelled to write about them — if only to sound a note of caution. [Read more]( [5. Many Americans Are Getting More Money From Unemployment Than They Were From Their Jobs]( [As Coronavirus Pandemic Cripples U.S. Economy, Unemployment Rate Soars To 14.7 Percent]( Graphics by Jasmine Mithani [Read more]( [6. Michael Jordan Faced Better Competition Than LeBron James]( [MJ-LEBRON-4×3]( As we watch Michael Jordan vanquish each of his contemporaries in ESPN’s “The Last Dance” — which wraps up with its final two episodes on Sunday — it’s hard not to imagine the best of today’s game lacing up against them. What if LeBron James had played against these guys? [Read more]( [7. How Close Are We To Herd Immunity?]( [Pod3Art_notitle-4×3]( This week on FiveThirtyEight’s COVID-19 podcast, PODCAST-19, we hear some good news about COVID-19 antibodies both in humans and … llamas?! Also, without a vaccine, just how many more people need to get sick before we reach herd immunity? [Read more]( [8. Will The Supreme Court Finally Force Trump’s Tax Returns To Be Released?]( [TRUMP-TAX-RETURNS_4x3]( Remember President Trump’s tax returns? It seems like a relic from the distant past, but only last December, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear a trio of cases on whether the president could block his accounting firm and two of his banks from turning over eight years of tax returns and other financial records to Democratic-led House committees and New York City prosecutors. Trump’s lawyers have offered an extraordinarily expansive vision of his power as president, arguing that as chief executive he is immune from criminal investigations and congressional subpoenas. The cases were supposed to be heard in late March but were delayed over a month due to the COVID-19 crisis. Now, on Tuesday morning, the justices will finally hear arguments in one of the most momentous disputes over congressional power and presidential immunity in recent memory. [Read more]( [9. We’ve Got Some Early Trump vs. Biden Swing State Polling]( [0501_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [10. Democrats Lead The Race For Congress — But The National Environment Will Probably Change]( [skelley-generic-ballot-4×3]( The 2020 electoral environment currently looks pretty good for Democrats. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [How To Get Butts In Seats When Sports Return]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.