FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular In Politics] Thursday, May 14, 2020 [1. If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think He’ll Win?]( [SlackChat_0513-4×3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [2. What To Make Of Those New Senate Polls That Have Democrats Way Ahead]( [IowaStateFair]( Before you read any further, let’s get one thing straight: It’s still pretty early to trust general-election polls. In addition to the small but significant error inherent in polls taken six months before Election Day, the coronavirus pandemic has made the fall political environment extremely uncertain. But some recent Senate polls have been so eye-popping that we’re compelled to write about them — if only to sound a note of caution. [Read more]( [3. Two Special Elections On Tuesday Could Hint At Another Blue Wave In 2020]( [EU-SPECIAL-0511_4x3]( Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump in most early polls, Democrats are leading polls of the generic congressional ballot by 2018-level margins, and general disapproval of the administration’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic threatens to sink Republican prospects across the board. On Tuesday, we’ll get a taste of whether Democrats’ electoral advantage on paper will hold up in practice, as California and Wisconsin hold special elections for two vacant congressional seats. The main event is in the California 25th Congressional District, a bellwether seat in the north Los Angeles suburbs, where both parties see a chance to add to their ranks in the House. But if Democrats are also competitive in the quickly reddening, rural Wisconsin 7th Congressional District, it could signal another blue wave in the fall. Here’s everything you need to know about the two races. [Read more]( [4. There Is No Evidence That Voting By Mail Gives One Party An Advantage]( [MAIL-PARTISAN-4×3]( If the coronavirus pandemic rages on, most Americans will probably vote by mail in November. But like most political issues in the U.S., voting by mail is an increasingly partisan affair, with Democrats more likely to support it than Republicans. [Read more]( [5. Will The Supreme Court Finally Force Trump’s Tax Returns To Be Released?]( [TRUMP-TAX-RETURNS_4x3]( Remember President Trump’s tax returns? It seems like a relic from the distant past, but only last December, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear a trio of cases on whether the president could block his accounting firm and two of his banks from turning over eight years of tax returns and other financial records to Democratic-led House committees and New York City prosecutors. Trump’s lawyers have offered an extraordinarily expansive vision of his power as president, arguing that as chief executive he is immune from criminal investigations and congressional subpoenas. The cases were supposed to be heard in late March but were delayed over a month due to the COVID-19 crisis. Now, on Tuesday morning, the justices will finally hear arguments in one of the most momentous disputes over congressional power and presidential immunity in recent memory. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts How popular is Donald Trump? [How popular is Donald Trump?]( [See all polls]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide When We Reopen]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.