Morning Distribution for Monday, May 11, 2020

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Monday, May 11, 2020 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [TRUMP-TAX-RETURNS_4x3]( [Will The Supreme Court Finally Force Trump’s Tax Returns To Be Released?]( By [Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux]( Remember President Trump’s tax returns? It seems like a relic from the distant past, but only last December, the [U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear]( a trio of cases on whether the president could block his accounting firm and two of his banks from turning over eight years of tax returns and other financial records to Democratic-led House committees and New York City prosecutors. Trump’s lawyers have offered an extraordinarily expansive vision of his power as president, arguing that as chief executive he is [immune from criminal investigations]( and [congressional subpoenas](. The [cases were supposed to be heard]( in late March but were [delayed over a month]( due to the COVID-19 crisis. Now, on Tuesday morning, the justices will finally hear arguments in one of the most momentous disputes over congressional power and presidential immunity in recent memory. The timing could be bad for Trump, as the [accounting firm]( and [banks]( have already indicated that if the Supreme Court deems the requests for his records valid, they would turn over the documents. That would give Trump’s political opponents a new source to mine for information on [how he makes and spends his money]( right before the 2020 presidential election. On the other hand, a ruling in Trump’s favor could ensure that his financial documents remain hidden for the foreseeable future. But the outcome might not be that simple. A few weeks ago, the [justices asked both sides]( to weigh in on whether the dispute between Trump and House Democrats is fundamentally political and, therefore, beyond the reach of the courts. A ruling that the courts are powerless to resolve this fight could translate into a loss for Trump since he wouldn’t have any power to stop his accounting firm or banks from handing over his records. But it’s not clear exactly what would happen if the Supreme Court stepped aside — and losing the courts as a referee in fights over subpoenas could also be a longer-term victory for the presidency, as Congress could lose its ability to make high-level executive branch officials actually comply with their subpoenas for documents or testimony. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- The Latest Data How popular is Donald Trump? [How popular is Donald Trump?]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: How Long The Unemployment Pain Could Last]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.