FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, November 3, 2019 [1. What We Learned From The First House Vote On Impeachment]( [President Donald J. Trump]( Today’s House vote to formalize the impeachment process, spelling out its rules and procedures, isn’t the impeachment vote. That vote — on whether to make Donald Trump only the third-ever president to be impeached — will likely come later, after the House holds public hearings. But Thursday’s vote still told us a lot about how the House impeachment is likely to play out. [Read more]( [2. Why Democrats Are Moving Quickly With Impeachment]( [House Democrats Hold Meeting To Discuss Impeachment Inquiry]( House Democrats are running out of time. With a little over three months to go before the beginning of primary season, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced on Monday that the House will hold its first formal vote of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump on Thursday, signaling that the investigation, which has taken place almost entirely behind closed doors so far, is about to go public. This is an important step in expediting the proceedings, especially if Democrats are trying to avoid an impeachment process that stretches into an election year. But it’s also a sign that even after a judge ruled that their investigation was legal, Democrats aren’t waiting on the courts to help bolster their inquiry. [Read more]( [3. We’re Checking In On All Those 2020 Senate Races. A Few GOP Incumbents Look Vulnerable.]( [SENATE-ROUNDUP-1101-4×3]( You might not know it from the headlines, dear reader, but the presidential contest is not the only election happening in 2020. Control of the U.S. Senate is also up for grabs, and the party in charge of Congress’s upper chamber could determine the fate of many of the policies currently grabbing attention in the presidential campaign. As we noted right after the 2018 election, Republicans are favored to retain a majority in the Senate in 2020, but Democrats also have a realistic — if difficult — path to winning back control. This is the first of a series of regular updates on what’s happening in Senate contests around the country, so let’s take a look-see at the latest developments. [Read more]( [4. Why Beto O’Rourke’s Campaign Failed]( [Democratic Presidential Candidates Attend “Union For All” Summit In Los Angeles]( Beto O’Rourke has played games with the media before, but he got a last laugh of sorts — at least a wistful chuckle — by dropping out of the presidential race on Friday afternoon, sending political writers into a tizzy right before the weekend. And although his candidacy once had great promise, O’Rourke’s exit from the race came down to his weak poll numbers and reduced fundraising numbers, as well as the fact that he may never have had the base of support he needed to truly compete for the Democratic nomination. [Read more]( [5. Qualifying For The December Debate Will Be Difficult For Many Democrats]( [DEBATE-POLL-ISSUES-OCT-4×3]( For many Democratic presidential candidates, making the debates hasn’t been all that difficult. After all, 12 candidates made the stage in October, and nine have already qualified for the November debate. But on Friday, the Democratic National Committee released its strictest qualifying criteria yet, raising both the polling and donor thresholds for the December debate. And it looks like the new rules could be a thorn in the side of many candidates who have qualified for recent debates. [Read more]( [6. What Will Change When Impeachment Goes Public?]( [SlackChat-1030-4×3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [7. Which Mid-Tier NFL Teams Are Still In The Playoff Hunt?]( [SportsChat_1028-4×3]( sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): Last week, we talked about the teams we thought were the best in the league — the ones with at least five wins. This week, let’s focus on the teams just below that tier — those that had four wins last week and those that got to four wins this weekend. That’s the entire AFC South, the Cowboys, the Eagles, the Panthers and the Rams. [Read more]( [8. Buttigieg’s Centrist Pivot May Be Winning Him A New Base]( [Democratic Presidential Candidates Participate In Fourth Debate In Ohio]( Let’s play a game I’m calling “Guess That 2020 Candidate.” The person I’m thinking of is a fresh face who would make history if elected president. They have ties to Harvard University and are known for giving thoughtful, sometimes wonky answers to questions. They hail from the middle of the country, which they play up on the stump. They’re a trendy choice among cosmopolitan elites, but they face a real challenge in diversifying their coalition. [Read more]( [9. Primary Challenges Might Keep These Republican Senators From Voting To Remove Trump]( [Advocates With Type 1 Diabetes Testify Before The U.S. Senate Special Committee On Aging During The JDRF 2019 Children’s Congress In Washington, DC]( Much has been made about whether Republicans will ever cut ties with President Trump over his attempt to hold up military aid to Ukraine to get political dirt on former Vice President Joe Biden. And although there are some signs of the party breaking with Trump, one important reason why we haven’t seen GOP senators break with Trump en masse is because many are up for reelection — in total, there are 23 Republican-held seats up in 2020. [Read more]( [10. The Ultimate Halloween Candy Power Ranking]( [Halloween2017_THUMB_4x3]( Video by Christine Laskowski, Tony Chow and Emily Scherer [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Our 2020 (Super Bowl) Draft]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 147 Columbus Avenue, New York, NY 10023.