FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

1 A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, September 23, 2018 [1. Why Manafort’s Flip May Matter More Than 25 Russian Indictments]( [US-POLITICS-TRIAL-MANAFORT]( For much of the past year, whenever a major new indictment has come down in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, we’ve been showing you a version of this chart. [Read more]( [2. Will Democratic Senators Lose Despite The ‘Blue Wave’?]( [ELECTION-UPDATE_09-17_4x3]( Our congressional forecasts reflect a blend of several different methods of prediction. But for the most part, those methods tell a fairly consistent story. In the House, for instance, district-by-district polls, the generic congressional ballot and historical trends in midterm elections all point toward Democrats winning the national popular vote by somewhere in the range of 8 to 10 percentage points, which would very probably be enough for them to take control of the chamber. So do what we call the “fundamentals,” non-polling indicators that have empirically been useful predictors of races for Congress, such as fundraising totals, past margins of victory and several factors related to incumbency. [Read more]( [3. Beto O’Rourke Is Crafting His Own Mythology]( [The Late Show with Stephen Colbert]( The Beto O’Rourke brand is a strong one right now. [Read more]( [4. What Happens To Brett Kavanaugh’s Nomination Now]( [Senate Holds Confirmation Hearing For Brett Kavanaugh To Be Supreme Court Justice]( The fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination looks much different after Christine Blasey Ford came forward in a Washington Post interview and said that he attempted to sexually assault her when the two were in high school. What happens next? Will President Trump and Senate Republicans stick with Kavanaugh? Right now, we have more questions than answers. Here are the big ones ... [Read more]( [5. Can A Democrat Really Win A Senate Race In Tennessee? Or Mississippi?!?!]( [ELECTION-UPDATE_0920_4x3]( Republicans don’t have a lot of exposure in the Senate this year -- but they’re doing what they can to help Democrats make the most of it. The GOP entered this election cycle with only eight of their own seats up for grabs. Republican incumbents retired in three of those seats, however, and while Democrats don’t really stand a chance in Utah -- where Mitt Romney will almost certainly succeed Orrin Hatch -- the races to replace Sen. Jeff Flake in Arizona and Sen. Bob Corker in Tennessee are highly competitive. [Read more]( [6. How Will The Troubled Kavanaugh Nomination Affect The Midterms?]( [Sept19-Chat_4x3]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [7. The Best College Football Programs Of The 1990s Are Suddenly Terrible]( [Florida State v Syracuse]( When I was growing up in the 1990s, it was hard to imagine the football programs at Florida State and Nebraska ever losing steam. The Huskers won national championships in 1994, 1995 and 1997; FSU took its own titles in 1993 and 1999 (plus went to two more BCS Championship Games, in 1998 and 2000). The two dynasties edged out Florida and Tennessee for the most victories in Division I-A in the ’90s, winning 218 games combined during the decade. [Read more]( [8. Vegas Doesn’t Usually Set Huge Underdogs In Week 3. For The Bills, They’ll Make An Exception.]( [Los Angeles Chargers v Buffalo Bills]( On its face, Sunday’s game between the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills doesn’t seem like a matchup of particular historical significance. Though they do remain one of the NFC’s top contenders, the 1-0-1 Vikes are coming off a tie with the Green Bay Packers -- apparently ties are a weekly thing now -- while the 0-2 Bills are reeling after a second straight embarrassing defeat. For most of the country, it’s just another routine game to indifferently monitor via RedZone. [Read more]( [9. Kavanaugh May Be Getting More Unpopular]( [Senate Holds Confirmation Hearing For Brett Kavanaugh To Be Supreme Court Justice]( Brett Kavanaugh was already one of the most unpopular Supreme Court nominees in recent history, and while we don’t have a lot of polling data since Palo Alto University professor Christine Blasey Ford’s accusation that he sexually assaulted her when the two of them were in high school, the surveys we do have suggest the allegations have made him more unpopular. [Read more]( [10. Election Update: Who’s Leading In Obama-Trump Districts]( [ELECTIONUPDATE-0919-4×3]( Welcome to our Election Update for Wednesday, Sept. 19! [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Could Be In Trouble]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](d9A1MaCutkx+BKNs83hCN2kWWgUpSa3lzpz07A3ZXWfaoNaB%2Fw=/Rml2ZVRoaXJ0eUVpZ2h0Xy1fVG9wX1N0b3JpZXNfTg==/en-US?espData=%7B%22bcastId%22%3A1394142945%2C%22userId%22%3A%225b40482aca64953bf42325bf%22%7D) Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 147 Columbus Avenue, New York, NY 10023.