FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, December 24, 2017 [1. Voters Are Skeptical Of The GOP Tax Bill Overall — Not Just Whether They’ll Get A Cut]( In reading coverage of the Republican tax bill, which passed the House on Wednesday and is ready for President Trump’s signature, I was reminded of this famous clip of the 1992 “town hall” presidential debate between Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, in which a voter asked the candidates a question about the “national debt” and how it had “personally affected” their lives. [Read more]( [2. Here Are The Most Absurd NFL Playoff Scenarios]( With just two weeks of regular season left, the number of teams that can still make the playoffs -- who haven’t already secured their berths -- has been whittled down to 14. Out of those, five teams enter Week 16 with at least an 87 percent chance, and two teams with a chance of 3 percent or lower, according to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL predictions. But the real fun lies with those teams in the middle that do not control their own destiny over the remaining two weeks. [Read more]( [3. The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is “Fame” from the television show “Fame.” [Read more]( [4. Got A Flu Shot? Great. Wash Your Hands, Too.]( If you’re headed to an airport, train station, shopping mall or other public space swarming with people this holiday season, there’s a pretty good chance you’ll come into contact with the flu. (That recluse life is looking better and better, I know.) Flu season is just starting (see the map below for where it's hitting hardest so far), but if the H3N2 viruses that are circulating now continue to predominate, “it could mean that this could be a pretty bad flu season,” said Brendan Flannery, an epidemiologist for the CDC’s Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network. Don’t want to catch it? Sure, get a flu shot. But there are other more routine steps to take too: Stock up on soap and consider wearing a face mask. It turns out that good hygiene is one of your best defenses against the flu and flu-like illnesses. [Read more]( [5. The Goals Of The GOP’s Anti-Mueller Campaign And Their Likelihood For Success]( President Trump, officials from his administration and political operation, many Republicans in Congress, and conservative pundits and activists are criticizing special counsel Robert Mueller and his team and questioning the fairness of his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections. Liberals see the anti-Mueller campaign -- which has cast the investigation as akin to an attempted coup and in the last week escalated to calling for Mueller’s dismissal -- as the obvious prelude to Trump firing Mueller. [Read more]( [6. Can Trump’s Pick To Lead The Weather Service Really Be Independent Of His Family Business?]( As Trump tweets, government acts. Welcome to Meanwhile, our recurring look at what federal agencies are up to and how their work affects people’s lives. [Read more]( [7. Want Competitive Elections? So Did Arizona. Then The Screaming Started.]( The disappearance of competitive congressional elections is one of the starkest political trends of the last half century. According to an analysis by the Cook Political Report, during the last 20 years alone, the number of competitive House districts has declined by more than 50 percent. In the 2016 election, just 17 percent of districts were competitive. [Read more]( [8. The ‘Most Powerful Political Players Of 2018’ Draft Extravaganza!!]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [9. The NHL Has Accomplished Its Goal(s)]( If you’ve been paying attention to the 2017-18 NHL season, you may have noticed something: There is no shortage of goals. We’re more than a third of the way through the season, and scores are, on average, the highest they’ve been since 2005-06. Through Sunday, there have already been 31 games settled in regulation in which the teams combined for double-digit goals. A year ago there were only 45 such games across the whole season. We’re still a long way away from the 1980s golden era of goals, but for a league that’s been repeatedly criticized for being too low-scoring, this sudden glut can only be read as a positive development. [Read more]( [10. Kobe May Go Down As the NBA’s Last True Gunslinger]( Retiring a number is the ultimate recognition of a former player’s contribution and legacy to a franchise. But for Kobe Bryant, one number apparently doesn’t do his years with the Los Angeles Lakers justice: Tonight, he’ll become the first player in NBA history to have two different numbers lifted to the rafters by the same team. It’s a fitting honor for a man who played more than 1,300 games, scored more than 33,500 points and won five titles for Los Angeles -- yet couldn’t settle on one number to wear. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [The Paul George And Carmelo Anthony Trades Are Looking Less One-Sided]( Lastly, The Riddler Edited by Oliver Roeder From Jeffrey Hope, open up your junk drawer and pull out those decks of cards: Your challenge is to take any 50 cards from a standard 52-card deck and arrange them into 10 poker hands, one of [each type]( from a royal flush down to a lowly high card.[2](#fn-2) The hands you build always rank as the highest type of hand possible,[3](#fn-3) and a card may not be reused across the hands. (This means, for example, that a four-of-a-kind better than four nines is impossible because it’d use a card you’d need to make a royal flush.) As in actual poker, it doesn’t matter what order the cards are arranged within a hand. Sounds easy enough, and indeed there is more than one solution. But: Exactly how many solutions are there? [Solve it!]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ESPN]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 147 Columbus Avenue, New York, NY 10023.