FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, September, 19, 2024 [1. How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024]( [How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024]( The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With the outsized importance of these states, it's worth taking a closer look at the data we have in each of them — not just where the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stands today, but also each candidate's path to victory and what issues could tip the election. First up: the Tar Heel State, North Carolina. [Read more]( [2. Polls show Harris gaining after the presidential debate]( [Polls show Harris gaining after the presidential debate]( A constant refrain in political analysis is, essentially, that nothing matters. Sometimes, it can feel like not even a massive gaffe or scandal can affect how voters feel about a candidate, and not even major news events can move public opinion on issues. [Read more]( [3. How to read political polls in 2024]( [How to read political polls in 2024]( It's the fall of an election year, which means you're probably seeing a lot of news stories about polls. But they can be confusing for the uninitiated: Which pollsters can you trust? How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? [Read more]( [4. Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries]( [Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries]( Incumbents [rarely lose primaries]( and 2024 was no different. Just four members of the U.S. House of Representatives overall — [two]( [Republicans]( and [two]( [Democrats]( — came up short in renomination contests over the past six-plus months of primary races. Notably, both of the Democrats who lost their primaries — Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri — were defeated in contests heavily shaped by the involvement of outside groups motivated by the conflict in Israel and Gaza. [Read more]( [5. Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries]( [Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries]( Over the last six years, a wave of upstart progressives have slowly chipped away at the old guard of the Democratic Party, toppling more centrist or establishment-aligned incumbents and pushing the party as a whole [further to the left](. These skirmishes have been one of the defining stories of Democratic primaries since 2018. But [newly energized challenges from pro-Israel groups]( like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee transformed much of the intraparty divide this year, forcing major progressive organizations to rethink their approach to primary season. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](