Morning Distribution for Friday, July 26, 2024

[FiveThirtyEight]( Morning Distribution Friday, July, 26, 2024 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table]( [What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table]( By [Mary Radcliffe](/author/mary_radcliffe) and [Cooper Burton](/author/cooper_burton) President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race on Sunday set off a whirlwind of activity among Democrats to coalesce around Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's pick to replace him. And while Harris seems to have [secured enough delegates]( to win the Democratic nomination at the party's virtual roll call nomination [next week]( speculation has [been swirling]( about [who she'll pick]( to join her on the ticket, from a [shortlist of roughly a dozen]( potential running mates. Not all vice presidential picks are created equal, though, so we took a look at the polls to see what Americans think about eight of the most-talked about names on the shortlist. Their resumes notwithstanding, some of these candidates are more popular than others, and most are broadly unfamiliar to the general public: Among Democrats, though, the potential field is viewed quite favorably. Each of the top candidates (for whom we have data) has a net positive favorability rating among members of their own party, though again, some are much more widely known than others. With [such a short time frame]( to vet and pick a running mate, the door is wide open for anyone on the shortlist to make their case for why they should be America's second-in-command. Here's a look at the strengths and weaknesses of some of the most (and less) likely names in the mix for the job, along with what the polls are saying about each candidate and what each could potentially bring to the ticket. More likely Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona [PHOTO: Sen. Mark Kelly speaks about the southern border outside the West Wing of the White House, on June 4, 2024, in Washington, D.C.] Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP PHOTO: Sen. Mark Kelly speaks about the southern border outside the West Wing of the White House, on June 4, 2024, in Washington, D.C. Mark Kelly's resume alone makes him an attractive vice presidential pick. Before becoming a senator, he was a Navy captain and [an astronaut]( both professions that [automatically bestow]( some [amount of standing]( upon candidates seeking elected office. (While we don't have any polling on astronaut credibility, it is our firm belief that the majority of Americans think astronauts are cool.) Additionally, Kelly has been a leader in gun policy reform, co-founding one of the [foremost gun violence prevention organizations]( in the U.S. after his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords, was shot in the head by a constituent. The Arizona Senator also has a [record of winning]( multiple [tough races]( in a [key swing state]( building a profile as a pragmatic centrist focused on issues like health care affordability. During those runs, he was [one of the most prolific fundraisers]( in the Senate, which could endear him to a campaign that will be [playing catch-up]( in the money race against former President Donald Trump (although Harris [doesn't seem to be having too many problems]( on that front so far). Kelly also represents a key border state, and has staked out [tougher stances on immigration]( than some of his Democratic colleagues. That could help combat Republican attacks in a policy area that is seen as [one of Harris's weak spots](. He's also quite popular: Three polls from this week showed that while only an average of 43 percent of respondents had an opinion of him, that opinion was positive, with net average favorable ratings of +2 percentage points among all adults nationwide and +35.3 points among Democrats. In polls conducted since the June 27 presidential debate, the former astronaut is the only potential VP pick on this list who has a net positive average favorability rating among the general public. There are some potential downsides to choosing Kelly, though: In [a YouGov/Yahoo News poll]( from Monday that asked outright who respondents thought should be Harris's VP, Kelly ran near the bottom of the pack, though that could be due in part to low name recognition. He's also been [criticized by some labor unions]( for being one of only two Senate Democrats* to not formally sponsor [the PRO Act]( which would make it easier for workplaces to unionize — though he [clarified his support for the bill]( Wednesday. Additionally, the prospect of a special election to fill his seat in 2026, should the ticket win in November, might give the Harris campaign pause, since that special election would put another Democratic Senate seat in danger in a year when they would probably already be [swimming against the tide](. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro [PHOTO: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro delivers remarks following a briefing on Interstate-95 highway emergency repair and reconstruction efforts, in Philadelphia, on June 17, 2023.] Julia Nikhinson/AFP via Getty Images PHOTO: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro delivers remarks following a briefing on Interstate-95 highway emergency repair and reconstruction efforts, in Philadelphia, on June 17, 2023. Josh Shapiro was first cast into the national spotlight in 2023, when an I-95 bridge collapse in Philadelphia made [headlines across the country](. While initial speculation was that rebuilding would take months, the highway actually reopened in [just 12 days]( earning Shapiro significant good press and a reputation as a politician who gets things done. Since then, he's continued to work across the aisle to pass compromise legislation: Pennsylvania is the only state in the country with a split legislature, so any bills require bipartisan support to become law. Even so, Shapiro has been able to tackle big priorities in Pennsylvania on issues like [school funding]( and [health care]( which has earned him a bipartisan reputation and high approval ratings in the commonwealth: In our [look earlier this year at governors' approval ratings]( Shapiro had the eighth-highest net approval rating of any governor in America, at +25.9 points, and was the highest-rated swing state governor. That said, the first-term governor and former attorney general is still relatively unknown on a national stage; in an average of 7 national polls conducted since the June debate between Trump and Biden, just 37 percent of respondents had an opinion of Shapiro, with a net favorability of -1.3 points nationally and +18 among Democrats. So while he starts slightly underwater, he has plenty of room to grow with the public. Running in the VP slot would be fairly low risk for Shapiro. If the campaign loses, he would presumably run for a second term as governor in 2026 and set himself up with a robust national profile if he decides to run for higher office. (If Shapiro became vice president, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis would become the first Black governor of the commonwealth and the youngest governor in the nation.) Like Kelly, Shapiro's inclusion on the ticket could juice the campaign's support in a critical swing state where the [party has been trailing](. Moreover, boosting Democratic turnout in the commonwealth could help ensure the party keeps control of the state House of Representatives, which [flipped to a Democratic majority in 2022]( for the first time in 12 years, and shore up Sen. Bob Casey in a [potentially competitive Senate race](. On the other hand, Shapiro does come with some downsides for the Harris campaign. He's not always in lockstep with the Democratic Party on policy: He supports [school vouchers]( for example, and has a more moderate position on environmental issues like [fracking]( a big industry in Pennsylvania. These policy differences may make him a divisive figure within the party at a time when Harris will be looking to maintain the [unity the party developed in the wake of Biden's exit](. Shapiro's [pro-Israel stance]( could also be off-putting to some of the Democrats who criticized Biden on the same issue — including many younger and nonwhite voters that Harris's campaign will be hoping to turn out in force. A Harris-Shapiro ticket would be the first in American history not to include a white Christian (Shapiro is Jewish), which may be viewed as a liability in the ticket's broader appeal. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear [PHOTO: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear speaks in the Rotunda of the state Capitol, Mar. 26, 2024, in Frankfort, Ky. ] Timothy D. Easley/AP PHOTO: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear speaks in the Rotunda of the state Capitol, Mar. 26, 2024, in Frankfort, Ky. One of the most buzzed-about potential VP picks is Andy Beshear, who is currently [the most popular Democratic governor in the country](. His popularity is even more impressive given that he hails from a state that voted for Trump by 26 percentage points in 2020. Beshear has endeared himself to Kentuckians through a combination of name recognition (his father is a popular former governor) and his response to various emergencies during his time in office. Early in his tenure as governor, Beshear gained praise online for [his response to the COVID-19 pandemic](. But his popularity really took hold after [a pair of devastating natural disasters]( a tornado in western Kentucky and massive flooding on the eastern side of the state. Beshear's role as a "consoler-in-chief" during that time has been credited with [helping him win reelection]( last year in the deeply conservative state against [a formidable opponent](. At 46, Beshear is one of the youngest candidates on the VP shortlist and he's term-limited as governor, so he doesn't have all that many years left in state office anyway. (If he became vice president, his lieutenant governor would serve out the rest of his term.) While he's one of the only candidates on the list who doesn't hail from an important swing state, he could provide a counterweight to Trump's vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. Vance has [played up his Appalachian roots]( on the campaign trail, despite the fact that he is [not actually from the area]( and Beshear, who governs one of the [core regions of Appalachia]( has already taken to [criticizing the senator]( as a "phony" with "no conviction." But Beshear is poorly known outside of the Bluegrass State; in our average of national polls taken in July, he had one of the lowest name recognitions of any potential VP on our list, with just 27 percent of respondents expressing an opinion of him. That's not to say that he's disliked, though; that same average showed he had a net favorability rating of +17.3 among those in his own party, and was only ever-so-slightly underwater among all adults. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper [PHOTO: North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper touts Medicaid expansion reaching 500,000 enrollees during a news conference at the North Carolina Executive Mansion, July 12, 2024, in Raleigh, N.C.] Makiya Seminera/AP PHOTO: North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper touts Medicaid expansion reaching 500,000 enrollees during a news conference at the North Carolina Executive Mansion, July 12, 2024, in Raleigh, N.C. Harris seems to have a particular interest in putting North Carolina in play in November, so it's no surprise that Roy Cooper has appeared on her vetting lists. She's visited the state at least [seven times so far this year]( appeared alongside Cooper at several events and seems to have a [positive relationship with him](. A Democrat hasn't won the state in a presidential election since Barack Obama in 2008, but margins since then have been thin: Trump carried it by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020. Notably, Cooper won both his gubernatorial races in 2016 and 2020, at the same time that Trump carried the state, so he may have some split-ticket appeal with moderate voters. Moreover, having Cooper on the ticket could improve the party's chances in a [tightly fought gubernatorial election]( to fill Cooper's office. Despite rumors swirling about his inclusion on the list of candidates being vetted by the Harris campaign, we've only seen one poll asking Americans their opinion of Cooper, and he was underwater by 2 points (though relatively few Americans knew him well enough to express an opinion about him). In surveys [conducted in 2023]( he had a net approval rating in North Carolina of +11.6 percentage points, putting him in the middle of the pack of governors nationwide. Like Shapiro, Cooper has been limited in what he can achieve as governor due to his state's Republican-led state legislature, but he's still been able to address some Democratic priorities. In 2023, after years of trying, Cooper finally was able to [expand Medicaid in the Tar Heel state](. He's also prioritized less divisive issues like [increasing teacher pay]( [funding for child care]( and [broadband access](. One possible downside of making Cooper a running mate is that he may be limited in how much he can campaign. According to state law, any time the governor leaves the state, the [lieutenant governor becomes the acting governor]( able to wield all the powers of the office — that's a problem for Democrats because the state's lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, is a highly controversial Republican. On the other hand, Cooper could cancel any executive orders or appointments as soon as he returns to North Carolina, so there may not be as much downside here as it first appears. Meanwhile, Cooper's age sets him apart: At 67, Cooper is older than the other candidates being vetted, and would be in his mid-70s by the end of a second vice presidential term. That could give the Harris campaign pause in a race where age has proved to be a significant issue for voters, though it could also be a positive for Democrats hoping to leave the door open for a new generation of leaders in 2028 or 2032. Less likely U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg [PHOTO: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg offers remarks on the continued flight disruptions affecting Delta Air Lines passengers and DOTs investigation into Delta, at the U.S. Department of Transportation, July 23, 2024, in Washington.] Rod Lamkey/AP PHOTO: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg offers remarks on the continued flight disruptions affecting Delta Air Lines passengers and DOT's investigation into Delta, at the U.S. Department of Transportation, July 23, 2024, in Washington. Pete Buttigieg [exploded onto the national scene]( in the 2020 primary race, rising from obscurity as the millennial mayor of South Bend, Indiana, to become the possible winner of the 2020 Iowa caucus (we're still not sure who [really won that caucus]( and runner-up in the New Hampshire primary. While his presidential campaign fizzled from there, his national popularity ultimately earned him a spot in Biden's cabinet. One possible benefit of a vice presidential pick like Buttigieg is his ability and willingness to communicate across the political spectrum; during the 2020 campaign, for example, he made [frequent appearances on Fox News]( a practice that he has continued as transportation secretary. He's extremely popular among Democrats, with a net favorability of +46.6 percentage points, on average, in polls conducted since the debate, and barely underwater with the American public. Like Vance, he's from a community that [significantly declined in the wake of manufacturing job losses]( in the latter half of the 20th century, and he served in the military, deploying to both Iraq and Afghanistan. Those similarities might make him a good foil against Vance in a debate. On the other hand, Buttigieg does come with some baggage. He's served as transportation secretary during some particularly rough times, managing the [oversight of Boeing]( during a series of [well-publicized disasters]( for the company. And early on in the Biden presidency, there were [reports that Harris and Buttigieg clashed over the direction of the party]( while both have denied these rumors, Harris may be reluctant to pick a running mate who has been seen as a [potential rival]( within the party. At 42, Buttigieg would be among the youngest vice presidents in American history; just six vice presidents have been younger than he would be at the start of his term. Moreover, a presidential ticket featuring a nonwhite woman and a gay man might not be as broadly palatable to the American public as other options. And while his net favorability among the American public is only a tad underwater, with five years of time on the national stage, he may have less room to grow than other possible candidates. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker [PHOTO: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker addresses the crowd at the Old Post Office, June 28, 2023, in Chicago. ] Evan Vucci/AP PHOTO: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker addresses the crowd at the Old Post Office, June 28, 2023, in Chicago. While Pritzker's name has appeared on virtually every VP shortlist in recent days, he has not generated the same amount of chatter among party activists or rank-and-file Democrats as many of the other contenders. That may be because he's not actually all that popular: In our average of favorability polls, he had the worst net favorability rating of any candidate on this list, at -5.8 points. And he's one of the least popular governors in America as well, according to [our analysis from April]( (though he still has a positive net approval rating). But he also has extremely low name recognition, with an average of just 27 percent of respondents holding an opinion about him in polls conducted since June 27. That could give him room to improve his numbers. Prtizker has [a solid record of progressive policy achievements]( as governor. Perhaps most notably, he signed [a sweeping criminal justice reform bill]( into law that ended cash bail in the Prairie State and required police officers to wear body cameras, among other provisions. That resume item could help soothe worries among some progressives about Harris's record on criminal justice as her state's "[top cop]( Ultimately, though, Pritzker is an unlikely pick. With a net worth of $3.5 billion, he is currently the [richest politician]( in the U.S., a fact that could help Harris in the money race but would almost certainly play poorly with working-class voters of both parties. Illinois is also a safe blue state, so Pritzker would not bring a notable home-state advantage to the ticket. He's also [expressed "disappointment"]( with calls for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which could present similar concerns for Democrats as Shapiro. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer [PHOTO: Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer appears on Good Morning America, on July 9, 2024.] ABC News PHOTO: Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer appears on "Good Morning America," on July 9, 2024. Whitmer has long been considered one of the Democratic Party's rising stars. The governor of an important swing state, she's a national co-chair of the Biden (now Harris) campaign and [no stranger to a VP shortlist](. Despite her claims that she is not interested, [multiple news outlets]( have reported that [she's been asked to submit vetting materials]( by the Harris campaign. Whitmer starts in a fairly strong position: She's one of the most nationally popular politicians on the shortlist, with an average net favorability of +40 points among Democrats and a roughly-even average net favorability among all adults. She also has a much higher name ID than other candidates in contention, as well as an impressive policy record to run on, having passed a [slate of high-profile legislation]( alongside a newly Democratic state legislature last year. And she can point to [her work with the Republican-controlled state legislature]( during her first term as proof that she can work across the aisle. But the Michigan governor isn't the most natural fit for the Harris ticket this year. For one, she's a woman, and some Democrats are wary about nominating an all-female presidential ticket (though others have [advocated strongly for it](. And while she has [a high approval rating]( in her home state, it's solidly middle-of-the-pack compared to other governors. But perhaps the biggest reason she isn't likely to be picked is because [she's said that she doesn't want to be](. It's true that politicians are [often a no]( until they're [suddenly a yes]( but Whitmer has [repeatedly said]( that she plans to [serve out her full term]( as governor. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz [PHOTO: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks at a Biden-Harris campaign and DNC press conference, on July 17, 2024, at venue name in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. ] Jim Vondruska/Getty Images PHOTO: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks at a Biden-Harris campaign and DNC press conference, on July 17, 2024, at venue name in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Walz brings two elements to the Harris campaign that could be beneficial: deep establishment party connections that could be a boon to fundraising and a history of progressive lawmaking that will appeal to Democratic voters. Walz leads the [Democratic Governors Association](, and the organization raised a [record $71.5 million last year]( under his leadership, 66 percent higher than the last non-election year. He's unlikely to steal the spotlight from Harris, given his reputation as a party loyalist and ties to the party apparatus. He also has a reputation for enacting progressive policy in Minnesota; after Democrats took full control of the state legislature in 2022, Walz signed laws [legalizing recreational marijuana](, enacting [stricter gun control measures]( and [protecting abortion rights](, and signed an executive order [reaffirming protections for gender-affirming care]( in the state. However, despite (or maybe because of) his ability to deliver on progressive priorities, he's relatively unpopular; in [2023 polls]( his net approval rating in Minnesota was just +5.9 percentage points, the 12th-worst among governors for whom we had data available. And his potential VP candidacy doesn't seem to be making a lot of waves; no pollsters have included him in their questions about favorability since June 27, and it's probably safe to say that he's fairly unknown nationwide. Footnotes *One of the four independents who caucus with the Democrats, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, has also not signed on to the bill. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]() [Unsubscribe](