FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, June, 20, 2024 [1. Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate]( [Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate]( The clock struck midnight on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s window to qualify for CNN's June 27 general election debate, and the network [formally announced]( that he won't make the stage. That hour on Thursday marked the deadline to meet CNN's [qualification requirements]( which included being constitutionally eligible to become president, having at least four qualifying national polls with at least 15 percent support that meet CNN's guidelines and having confirmed ballot access in enough states to potentially win a majority in the Electoral College (270 electoral votes). Kennedy ultimately came up short on both polls and ballot access in his bid to get a spot on the debate stage alongside President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. [Read more]( [2. It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.]( [It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.]( There's a question journalists, economists and President Joe Biden's campaign have been puzzling over for months: Why, when every traditional indicator is positive, are Americans so displeased with the economy? [Read more]( [3. Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast]( [Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast]( Today 538 published our [official forecast for the 2024 presidential election](. The model builds on our [general election polling averages]( by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in November. At least once per day, we'll rerun our simulations of the election with the latest data, so [bookmark our interactive]( and check back often. [Read more]( [4. How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works]( [How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works]( For 2024, 538 built a [new presidential election forecast model]( from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. [Read more]( [5. A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about]( [A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](