FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, April, 25, 2024 [1. Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally]( [Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally]( It's the moment you've all been waiting for: Today, 538 launched our interactive polling averages for the 2024 presidential general election. They show incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump essentially tied in national polls and Trump with a tenuous lead in key swing states. [Read more]( [2. Voters under 30 are trending left of the general electorate]( [Voters under 30 are trending left of the general electorate]( Voters under the age of 30 have largely been part of the Democratic camp since former President Barack Obama [won two-thirds of them]( in 2008. That same age group may have helped [put President Joe Biden over the top]( in 2020, and assisted Democrats in [broadly overperforming expectations]( in the 2022 midterms. And there's some evidence that these young voters [are staying liberal even as they age]( defying the trend of previous generations. That's especially true of millennials, the now-27 to 42 year-olds who were so taken with Obama's first campaign. (Throughout this analysis, we use the [Pew Research Center's definitions]( of millennials and Generation Z.) [Read more]( [3. What the polls say about Trump's hush money trial]( [What the polls say about Trump's hush money trial]( Jury selection begins Monday in Donald Trump's New York hush money case, the first of the former president's four criminal trials. The charges are related to an alleged cover-up of a $130,000 hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election. But the polls suggest that a guilty verdict would be unlikely to have a big influence come November. [Read more]( [4. Americans really love their governors]( [Americans really love their governors]( On a cool day last October, while federal officials in Washington, D.C., were squabbling to elect a new speaker of the House, Phil Scott was talking about construction. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](