Morning Distribution for Friday, April 19, 2024

[FiveThirtyEight]( Morning Distribution Friday, April, 19, 2024 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [Americans really love their governors]( [Americans really love their governors]( By [Cooper Burton](/author/cooper_burton) and [Mary Radcliffe](/author/mary_radcliffe) On a cool day last October, while federal officials in Washington, D.C., were squabbling to elect a new speaker of the House, Phil Scott was talking about construction. The Vermont governor stood in a spacious workshop outside Montpelier, the state capital, surrounded by wooden beams and workers wearing bright blue hard hats. Over the sounds of power drills, Scott spoke for almost an hour about promoting careers in the trade industry, building more housing and expanding the state's workforce by encouraging immigration. He promoted his work with the state's all-Democratic congressional delegation twice and name-checked Patrick Leahy, the state's former Democratic U.S. senator, saying "we miss him." A casual observer that day could have been forgiven for assuming the governor was a Democrat; it would be only natural, given his rhetoric and the fact that Vermont is one of the most liberal states in the country, voting for President Joe Biden [by 35 percentage points]( in 2020. And according to [polling from Morning Consult]( Scott is the most popular governor in America right now. But the four-term incumbent is actually a Republican, and [a lifelong one]( at that. Focusing on non-divisive issues like economic development is part of what's allowed Scott to not just survive, but thrive in the left-leaning state. And while ticket-splitting as a whole [has been in decline]( over the years, the phenomenon of a deep-blue or red state electing a highly popular governor of the opposite party [is certainly nothing new.]( But a new analysis by 538 suggests that while governors remain broadly popular across the country, Scott and his fellow pols may not have as high of approval ratings as it appears at first glance. Morning Consult has long released quarterly approval ratings for the nation's governors and U.S. senators. Those results are cited widely by [national]( and [local]( news outlets alike, [including by 538](. But [some observers have noticed]( that these ratings, which consistently show all or most governors with a positive net approval rating, seem shocking given today's political polarization. In Morning Consult's most recent round of polling, only one governor, Tate Reeves of Mississippi, had a negative net approval rating. We were curious if other polling backed this up, so we compiled every state-level poll from 2023 that asked a governor approval question (182 polls in all) to see if data from other firms matched Morning Consult's findings. On the whole, these other polls affirm Morning Consult's conclusions that America's governors are highly popular. But Morning Consult's data was still a bit rosier than that of other pollsters. Morning Consult governor approval ratings are unusually high How much higher Morning Consult’s 2023 quarterly governor approval ratings were than the average governor approval ratings from all other polls conducted in the same quarter, and how many more respondents expressed an opinion compared to all other polls Quarter Number of Polls Average Net Difference Average Opinion Difference 1 45 4.6% 1.8% 2 38 5.9 2.5 3 35 4.9 2.7 4 64 9.4 10.3 All 182 6.6 5.1 Only includes questions that asked if respondents approved or disapproved of the job their governor was doing. Questions that asked respondents to rate their governor’s job performance in a different way, such as on a scale of excellent, good, fair or poor, were not included. If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the broadest available sample (i.e., adults over registered voters and registered voters over likely voters). Sources: Morning Consult, Polls Across each quarter of 2023, we found that the net gubernatorial approval ratings in Morning Consult's surveys exceeded non-Morning Consult polls by an average of 7 percentage points. We also found that Morning Consult polls had a higher share of respondents who expressed any opinion, positive or negative, about how their governor is doing — an average of 5 points higher across each quarter. That means fewer respondents said they weren't sure, or that they hadn't heard enough about their governor to have an opinion. Crucially though, much of that difference came in the fourth quarter due to surveys from Emerson College, which had much higher rates of respondents who said they didn't have an opinion compared with other pollsters. When Emerson's polls aren't included, the average overall opinion difference drops to just 2 points. A spokesperson for Morning Consult pointed to the differences in question wording and response options between Morning Consult and other pollsters as one reason why its results may be different. Morning Consult's polls allow respondents to express the strength of their opinion by asking whether they "strongly" or "somewhat" approve or disapprove. Some other pollsters only allow respondents to choose "approve," "disapprove" or an undecided option, although many provide similar options as Morning Consult. Another consideration is that Morning Consult polls registered voters, who are more likely to have an opinion on political questions like approval and vote choice than the broader adult population. "We are the only outlet who releases governor approval in all 50 states," the spokesperson said in an email. "It's the only standard metric for comparing elected leaders across state lines using the same question format, mode, and population." To the firm's credit, when we compared Morning Consult's data with just local pollsters, the differences were smaller. When considering only polls conducted by pollsters who are based in the same state that the poll was fielded in, the average quarterly difference dropped by over 2 points, and the difference in respondents who express any opinion shrank by 3 points. Local pollsters usually know their states best, so it's a point in Morning Consult's favor that its data matches the local experts at a higher rate than the overall average. Morning Consult’s data aligned more with local pollsters How much higher Morning Consult’s 2023 quarterly governor approval ratings were than the average governor approval ratings from polls conducted by local pollsters in the same quarter, and how many more respondents expressed an opinion compared to local polls Quarter Number of Polls Average Net Difference Average Opinion Difference 1 29 1.6% 1.6% 2 21 6.1 1.9 3 14 2.2 0.9 4 26 7.2 3.9 All 90 4.3 2.2 A local poll is defined as one fielded in the same state in which the pollster is based. Only includes questions that asked if respondents approved or disapproved of the job their governor was doing. Questions that asked respondents to rate their governor’s job performance in a different way, such as on a scale of excellent, good, fair or poor, were not included. If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the broadest available sample (i.e., adults over registered voters and registered voters over likely voters). Sources: Morning Consult, Polls But setting aside the differences between the datasets, almost half of the nation's governors still had a net approval rating of +10 points or higher among the non-Morning Consult polls. And in that same dataset, only three governors had a net negative approval rating last year: Reeves, Brad Little of Idaho and Jim Pillen of Nebraska. Those results come with a lot of uncertainty, though: We had only one qualifying poll each in Idaho and Nebraska last year, both from Emerson College, which contrary to Morning Consult found consistently lower approval ratings compared to the rest of the pollsters in our dataset. And in six states, there wasn't a single qualifying poll asking about governor approval. That includes Oregon, where Gov. Tina Kotek was consistently ranked as one of the least popular governors in America last year, according to Morning Consult, but with which we have no other polls to compare. Governors are highly popular across the U.S. Average approval and disapproval rating of each governor in the U.S. in 2023, according to all non-Morning Consult polls conducted last year, along with the number of polls conducted in each state State Governor Number of Polls Average Approval Average Disapproval Net Approval Delaware John Carney 1* 68.0 25.0 +43.0 Utah Spencer Cox 3 62.0 28.7 +33.3 Vermont Phil Scott 4 62.5 30.8 +31.8 Maryland Wes Moore 3 56.1 25.8 +30.3 Massachusetts Maura Healey 3 56.3 26.3 +30.0 Connecticut Ned Lamont 1* 60.0 33.0 +27.0 New Hampshire Chris Sununu 11 59.2 32.7 +26.5 Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro 9 52.2 26.3 +25.9 Georgia Brian Kemp 2 60.1 35.2 +24.9 Kentucky Andy Beshear 2 52.3 28.6 +23.7 North Dakota Doug Burgum 2 49.6 26.4 +23.3 West Virginia Jim Justice 3 51.1 28.0 +23.1 Nevada Joe Lombardo 3 47.9 26.2 +21.7 Wyoming Mark Gordon 1* 34.8 16.3 +18.5 Maine Janet Mills 6 54.7 38.3 +16.3 South Carolina Henry McMaster 5 49.6 33.3 +16.3 Virginia Glenn Youngkin 13 52.9 37.3 +15.6 Tennessee Bill Lee 4 46.9 32.7 +14.2 Michigan Gretchen Whitmer 9 52.0 38.9 +13.1 Colorado Jared Polis 2 45.2 32.7 +12.5 Indiana Eric Holcomb 1* 37.0 25.0 +12.0 North Carolina Roy Cooper 15 48.1 36.4 +11.6 Montana Greg Gianforte 1* 36.7 26.2 +10.5 Florida Ron DeSantis 4 53.5 43.1 +10.4 Wisconsin Tony Evers 4 50.7 41.0 +9.8 New Jersey Phil Murphy 8 48.5 38.8 +9.8 Kansas Laura Kelly 1* 39.2 29.6 +9.6 Arkansas Sarah Huckabee Sanders 2 44.2 34.9 +9.3 California Gavin Newsom 11 50.5 41.7 +8.7 New York Kathy Hochul 10 49.0 42.3 +6.7 South Dakota Kristi Noem 1* 43.2 36.5 +6.7 Arizona Katie Hobbs 3 42.4 36.2 +6.2 Minnesota Tim Walz 3 48.5 42.5 +5.9 Missouri Mike Parson 4 44.5 39.0 +5.5 Oklahoma Kevin Stitt 2 41.5 36.4 +5.1 Ohio Mike DeWine 2 37.7 32.8 +4.9 Louisiana John Bel Edwards†3 44.3 40.0 +4.3 New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham 1* 47.0 43.0 +4.0 Texas Greg Abbott 9 46.8 42.8 +4.0 Illinois J.B. Pritzker 2 44.3 41.0 +3.3 Iowa Kim Reynolds 4 43.7 43.0 +0.7 Mississippi Tate Reeves 3 45.7 46.0 -0.3 Idaho Brad Little 1* 28.1 28.7 -0.6 Nebraska Jim Pillen 1* 25.6 26.4 -0.8 Alaska Mike Dunleavy 0 N/A N/A N/A Alabama Kay Ivey 0 N/A N/A N/A Hawaii Josh Green 0 N/A N/A N/A Oregon Tina Kotek 0 N/A N/A N/A Rhode Island Dan McKee 0 N/A N/A N/A Washington Jay Inslee 0 N/A N/A N/A Only includes questions that asked if respondents approved or disapproved of the job their governor was doing. Questions that asked respondents to rate their governor’s job performance in a different way, such as on a scale of excellent, good, fair or poor, were not included. If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the broadest available sample (i.e., adults over registered voters and registered voters over likely voters). *Denotes states with only one governor approval poll in 2023. Results should be interpreted with greater care. †Edwards is no longer in office, but we included him in this analysis since he was governor for all of 2023. Source: Polls One reason that governors are so consistently well-liked across regional and partisan divides is the simple fact that they are not federal officials. That allows them to stay out of the fiery disputes and mudslinging that often roil Washington, D.C., like the drama that accompanied the House of Representatives' attempts to elect a new speaker last fall. (Of course, some governors choose to [wade into these debates]( anyway in an effort to raise their national profile, but [that doesn't always end well.]( Most governors also [have trifectas in their states]( allowing them to campaign on tangible policy achievements. Whereas a federal representative's ability to bring home the bacon is affected by whether or not their party is in power nationally — and federal "trifectas" across Congress and the presidency [occur less frequently]( than in the states — governors are able to pass their legislative priorities much more easily. That allows them to build up [a laundry list of achievements]( that they can use to ingratiate themselves to voters. Alternatively, governors like Scott can appear like the voice of reason [when they oppose measures]( passed by the dominant party in their state that the public [may view as going too far]( — although that [might not stop]( the legislature from overriding a veto if it has the votes. So, despite the fact that Morning Consult's data is more favorable to governors than some other polls, that difference doesn't really change the overall takeaway from the pollster's results. Governors in every corner of the U.S. are extremely popular, often the most popular politician in their state. There's a reason why party leaders in D.C. [have had such trouble]( luring governors to run for Congress lately: The chaos and theatrics in the nation's capital are making many of them feel like they have it pretty good right where they are. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](