😎 Goldman's feeling good

The US chip ban took a toll on Alibaba | Disney attracted a second activist investor | [Finimize](   TOGETHER WITH   Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for November 17th in 3:15 minutes.   🍳 Finimized over a banana toast at [Honey Toast Cafe]( in Akihabara, Japan (18°C/64°F 🌤) Today's big stories - Alibaba called off the spinoff of its giant cloud business, and that has a lot to do with the US’s chip export ban - After a winning 2023 forecast, Goldman’s sticking with optimism – [Read Now]( - A second activist investing fund joined Disney’s kingdom, optimistic that the stock could double in value Fall From Space [Fall From Space] What’s going on here? Alibaba [called off]( its cloud division’s much-awaited spinoff, landing back on Earth with a bump. What does this mean? Alibaba pledged to split its business into six parts back in March, so each division could focus better, compete harder, and prosper more. That could’ve been just the tonic after the pandemic and the government’s tech crackdown – but a stiff drink may be needed now instead. Alibaba was forced to cancel the spinoff of the cloud division, which competes against Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. It’s a biggie: the business serves most Chinese technology companies and half of China’s generative AI firms – including Alibaba’s own AI initiatives. Problem is, it needs super-smart chips – the type Nvidia makes – to run, and now that the US has banned exports of the tiny shiny tools to China, the division’s hanging in the balance. Add that to last quarter’s worse-than-expected results, and it’s no wonder that Alibaba’s stock initially slipped 10% after the release. Why should I care? For markets: China’s seeing stars (and stripes). Nvidia’s been trying to bypass the chip ban – after all, a sale’s a sale. But for now, Chinese tech firms need to scour the black market or rely on outdated chips. That’s left even the country’s biggest companies falling behind their US rivals, with some calling the curb “an existential challenge” for China’s development. After all, the longer you lag, the harder it is to catch up – especially when this tech moves at the speed of light. The bigger picture: The elephant in the room. The presidents of the US and China are sharing words and local delicacies as we speak. So far, they’ve managed to agree on problems like drug crises and military communications, but the export ban hasn’t yet made the agenda. Although given that the US tightened the restrictions on advanced AI chips only a few weeks ago, the issue’s unlikely to be squashed anytime soon. You might also like: [How to invest in AI](. Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Fall From Space&utm_campaign=daily-global-17-11-2023&utm_source=email) Analyst Take Goldman Nailed The Outlook For 2023. It Sees Another Rose-Colored Year Ahead. [Goldman Nailed The Outlook For 2023. It Sees Another Rose-Colored Year Ahead.]( By Russell Burns, Analyst Goldman Sachs has got to be feeling [a bit smug]( right now. When it first released its optimistic outlook for the US economy for this year, there were [some serious doubters](. But that rosy view has been on the mark. Now, the investment bank is out with another positive forecast – [this time for 2024]( – and is anticipating an upside in most of the world’s stock markets. That’s today’s Insight: [Goldman’s 2024 outlook and the investing ideas that’ll help you hop aboard the self-satisfied bandwagon](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( SPONSORED BY WINECHAIN Let the sommeliers simplify wine investing You could invest in wine by clearing your basement, taking a bet on bottles, and sitting tight. Or you could check out [WineChain](: the platform makes it simple to get a taste of the good stuff, [sourcing, storing, shipping, and selling bottles for you](. All the bottles on WineChain are selected by one of the best sommeliers in Europe, and each one has its own [digital token to prove its authenticity](. That means you can explore one of the world’s [most stable, highly appreciating assets]( without studying the world of wine or clearing a spare room to keep your stock in. And good job you saw this now: WineChain’s currently offering its [$295 concierge service for free in your first year, and 15% cashback too](.* [Find Out More]( *[Terms & Conditions apply](. When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. Lights, Camera, Activism [Lights, Camera, Activism] What’s going on here? Activist fund ValueAct Capital has been [building]( a major stake in Disney, according to news out on Wednesday. What does this mean? When activist investors buy a hefty chunk of a company, it’s because they plan to pressure the firm into changing its ways. So boy, Disney’s about to feel some force. Trian Fund Management bought a $2 billion-plus stake in the kingdom last year. And it turns out that while Disney’s stock was hanging around $80 this summer, ValueAct picked up an undisclosed stake that is suspected to be one of the fund’s biggest. The two outside influences could be just what the house of Mickey Mouse needs: streaming service Disney Plus has struggled to win over customers, leaving Disney’s stock stuck on pause. So despite former CEO Bob Iger recently returning to the hot seat, investors celebrated ValueAct’s involvement by giving Disney’s stock a lift. Why should I care? For markets: Let’s get straight to business. Since reclaiming the throne, Iger’s dropped hints about selling channels like ABC and finding a strategic partner for ESPN – a major sports league, for example. Plus, he recently bumped up Disney’s annual cost-cutting goal from $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion. But ValueAct has a track record of reworking companies including Salesforce, Microsoft, Spotify, and the New York Times. So even if Iger’s plans start panning out, ValueAct’s expertise may be more than welcome in the boardroom. The bigger picture: The ultimate Disney adult. ValueAct believes Disney’s theme parks and consumer products alone are worth the price it paid, since the duo brings in around $10 billion a year. But the activist reckons that if you iron out the creases in the media segment and make the company a little more slick, Disney’s shares could be worth up to $190 each. If ValueAct can realize that potential, the stock will have more than doubled since the activist arrived. You might also like: [How to invest like an activist.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Lights, Camera, Activism&utm_campaign=daily-global-17-11-2023&utm_source=email) 🤝 Partner with us Finimize is much more than just this newsletter: we’re a full-blown [one-stop shop]( for engaging with [modern investors](. So whether you’re a fintech, founder, or just a fed-up exec, rest assured – we’ve got [the solutions]( you need. [Book A Demo]( 💬 Quote of the day "What I don't like about office Christmas parties is looking for a job the next day." – Phyllis Diller (an American stand-up comedian) [Tweet this]( SPONSORED BY RUFFER Something’s up in the US tech industry [Rampant interest rates]( have forced investors to rebalance their portfolios this year. [Bonds]( received a fresh flush of popularity, while many [stocks]( were cast aside as they could no longer justify their higher risk with equally significant returns. [Major tech companies](, though, have managed to keep inching ahead. That’s not necessarily what you’d expect for stocks when interest rates rise. Ruffer doubts that [artificial intelligence]( is the silver bullet some investors are hoping it will be, at least for now. Instead, the asset manager thinks the move signifies [imminent risks for tech stocks’ future](. You’ll want to know more about what this could mean for the US stock market going forward – it could be big. You can find out by [subscribing to Ruffer’s monthly newsletter, the Green Line.]( [Find Out More]( DisclaimerThe views expressed in this article are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment or financial instrument, including interests in any of Ruffer’s funds. This financial promotion is issued by Ruffer LLP which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK and is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. © Ruffer LLP 2023. Registered in England with partnership No OC305288. 80 Victoria Street, London SW1E 5JL. For US institutional investors: securities offered through Ruffer LLC, Member FINRA. Ruffer LLC is doing business as Ruffer North America LLC in New York. [Read the full disclaimer](. When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🎯 On Our Radar 1. Take that, five-day office week. [Natural disasters]( are the next obstacle for commuters. 2. Proof of work versus proof of stake. Here's [how to check whether your crypto transactions are safe](.* 3. Green bubbles, we barely knew you. Apple may be [willing to change](. 4. Today’s top companies won't necessarily rule the roost tomorrow. [Brush up your investing skills]( with this rundown.** 5. Pucker up. [Kissing]( is back, baby. See important disclosures [here](.** When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🌍 Finimize Live [Modern Investor Summit]( ❤️ Share with a friend Thanks for reading {NAME}. If you liked today's brief, we'd love for you to share it with a friend. You stay classy, {NAME} 😉 We’d love to hear your thoughts. [Give feedback]( Want to advertise with us too? 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