🤞 Seven recession facts

Data from the US job market blew past expectations | British home prices are on the decline | [Finimize](   TOGETHER WITH   Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for October 7th in 3:06 minutes.   ☕️ Finimized over a hot chocolate at [Cafe de Flore]( in Paris, France (🌤 26°C/78°F) Today's big stories - The US economy created twice as many jobs as expected in September, and that's got investors worried - Here’s what past recessions can tell you about today – [Read Now]( - British house prices continued to drop in September, but the bottom might be in sight A Hire Calling [A Hire Calling] What’s going on here? US jobs piled up in September, with the latest data [blowing past expectations](. What does this mean? The state of the jobs market serves as a vital pulse check for the US economy, hinting at the health of both the country’s businesses and consumer spending. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are a major indicator of the market’s status: they track how many US jobs are added or lost in any given month, excluding a couple of sectors like farming. September’s release revealed that 336,000 jobs were added over the month, double what was expected. And because July and August’s numbers were revised higher after their first release, it seems the labor market was also more robust over the summer than initially estimated. The takeaway: the job market’s strong. Maybe too strong. Why should I care? For markets: Up, up, and away. Remember, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has two jobs: to keep inflation in check and the job market stable. Inflation’s still well above target, and this robust jobs data may force the Fed to stick to its aggressive stance. No wonder, then, that investors are now expecting the central bank to hike interest rates – already sitting at a 22-year high – again before December. The bigger picture: The rate escape. Rates staying higher for longer would weigh on the economy, making it more expensive for both everyday folk and businesses to borrow the cash they need. Plus, they can make issues pop up in unexpected places – just think of the trouble rising rates brought to US regional banks a few months ago. They wreak havoc on investments, too: high rates make it more tempting to save cash and bank the interest, and riskier assets like stocks end up less appealing as a result. That’s exactly why stocks, bonds, and commodities have all taken a slide lately, with markets fearing higher-for-longer rates and pushing prices down. You might also: [What higher-for-longer rates mean for your portfolio](. Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=A Hire Calling&utm_campaign=daily-global-07-10-2023&utm_source=email) Analyst Take Seven Things You Need To Know About Recessions [Seven Things You Need To Know About Recessions]( By Theodora Lee Joseph, CFA, Analyst If you want to understand today, you have to search yesterday – or [so the saying goes](. And right now, with uncertainty and recession worries cranked up to 11, searching yesterday seems like [a smart idea](. Deutsche Bank did just that recently, digging into [170 years of market history]( and compiling a lengthy report about what the past might tell us about the present. I pulled out [the most important facts]( from that report. And that’s today’s Insight: [the seven things you need to know now about recessions](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( SPONSORED BY CHAIKIN ANALYTICS Wall Street’s “canary in a coal mine” just issued an AI warning Mad Money host Jim Cramer said he wouldn’t like to be on the other end of [a Marc Chaikin trade](. That’s because Chaikin has accurately predicted many mighty events: the 2012 Priceline collapse, the 2020 crash, and the 2022 bear market. Well, [he just issued a fresh warning](. Chaikin says [the AI trend is about to shift](, and by no small measures. This switch will, according to him, [catapult under-the-radar stocks up some 500%](, and [wipe out some current frontrunners](. “This is an extreme setup I haven’t seen since the 2020 crash,” Chaikin says. Last time he saw this happen, he reckoned one single stock could’ve doubled in value within a year. And he believes something similar this time too: Chaikin just announced his [top AI stock to buy today](, and you can [read his report for free right here](. [Find Out More]( DisclaimerThis ad is sent on behalf of Chaikin Analytics, 201 King Of Prussia Rd., Suite 650, Radnor, PA 19087. Privacy Policy - When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. The Property Ladder [The Property Ladder] What’s going on here? The British housing market took a slide in [September](, sending hopeful sellers back by more than a few places. What does this mean? UK house prices were staying true to the country’s spirit, remaining stoic and unemotional in the face of economic uncertainty. But a tremble on an upper lip quickly opened the floodgates, and property prices headed south, fast. September’s 0.4% drop from the month before means folk sold their keys for nearly 5% less than the same time last year, according to UK lender Halifax. That difference was slightly smaller in London, while the South of England saw the biggest change. Why should I care? For markets: I’m holding out for a bargain. September’s price dip was a lot less steep than August’s, though, which Halifax believes is a sign that prices are about to hit their lowest point. But property experts disagree: they reckon prices will end up about 10% lower than before they started falling. Either way, inflation will likely call the shots. If it hits the Bank of England’s 2% target over the next few months, mortgage lenders will anticipate lower interest rates and bring down their own borrowing rates. Would-be homeowners, then, should keep an eye on the next inflation reading, out on October 18th. Zooming out: Alexa, play Bills, Bills, Bills by Destiny’s Child. The British rental market’s moving in the complete opposite direction, with online property firm Rightmove saying rental payments jumped by 12% in August from the month before. That means regular tenants are scrambling to find £1,300 ($1,590) on average every month to put a roof over their heads. And unfortunately for renters, those bills could build: interest rates are still sending landlords’ mortgages higher, and those increases tend to be funneled into rents with a delay. You might also: [Interest rate cuts, rather than hikes, may be coming soon](. Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=The Property Ladder&utm_campaign=daily-global-07-10-2023&utm_source=email) 🪧 Forget the billboards Old-school tactics won't engage [modern investors](. Capturing the attention of clued-in whippersnappers takes something a little more [up-to-date]( – like a [promotional partnership]( with Finimize. [Find Out More]( 💬 Quote of the day "How inappropriate to call this planet Earth when it is quite clearly Ocean." – Arthur C. Clarke (an English science fiction writer) [Tweet this]( SPONSORED BY CHAIKIN ANALYTICS If you’re holding Nvidia, you need to read this [Nvidia](’s arguably the US’s top-performing stock, having more than doubled this year alone.  But whether you already hold Nvidia or are eyeing it up as your ticket into the multi-trillion-dollar AI market, you’ll want to [read Marc Chaikin’s prediction](. A regular on major US news outlets, Chaikin built the [stock indicator]( Wall Street uses to find winning stocks. It spotted [Tesla, Moderna, Riot Blockchain, and Nvidia]( before they exploded. And right now, Chaikin says there are [better AI stocks to own than Nvidia](. You can [discover them in his new report, Three Stocks to Watch During the AI Frenzy, for free](. [Discover More]( DisclaimerThis ad is sent on behalf of Chaikin Analytics, 201 King Of Prussia Rd., Suite 650, Radnor, PA 19087. Privacy Policy - When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🎯 On Our Radar 1. "Methamphetamine Rules". [Australian names]( are insane. 2. Bitcoin's the OG crypto. It's also tricky to value, but [this guide can help](.* 3. Children aren’t that fun anyway. You might want to [reconsider your friendship with your kid](. 4. Today’s top companies won't necessarily rule the roost tomorrow. [Brush up your investing skills]( with this rundown.** 5. Zombie brides aren’t just for Halloween. The red carpet’s newest trend is… [interesting](. **See important disclosures [here]( When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🌍 Finimize Live 🥳 Coming Up In The Next Week... All events in UK time. 💰 [Money Matters: Her Wealth Roadmap](: 5pm, October 25th 📈 [Accessible Strategies For Effective Trading](: 5pm, October 26th 🧰 [Mastering Tools for The Modern Trader](: 5pm, November 2nd 🎉 [Modern Investor Summit 2023](: 12pm, December 5th and 6th ❤️ Share with a friend Thanks for reading {NAME}. If you liked today's brief, we'd love for you to share it with a friend. 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