📉 Oil could slip up central banks

A key oil price benchmark hit its highest point for more than a year | The number of global deals made sunk to a decade low | [Finimize](   TOGETHER WITH   Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for September 29th in 3:13 minutes.   🤓 Ray Dalio's unlikely to reply to your LinkedIn message, sorry to break it to you. But grab a ticket for this year's [Modern Investor Summit](, and you'll get the answers you're asking for straight from the legendary investor himself. [Get your free Summit ticket]( Today's big stories - A key benchmark of US oil prices hit its highest point in over a year, as supply cuts continued to pile pressure onto the market - Meet the weight-loss drug market's potential big losers and even bigger winners – [Read Now]( - Global deal activity sunk to a decade low, indicating that high interest rates are slowing down both businesses and banks Essential Oils [Essential Oils] What’s going on here? A key benchmark of US oil prices [hit]( its highest level in over a year. What does this mean? West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil’s price ticked up by 3.6% on Wednesday evening, landing above $93 a barrel for the first time in over a year. That came on the heels of a report that showed supply at a key US oil storage site hit its lowest level since July 2022, with inventory verging close to the minimum needed for the site to function properly. This bigger-than-expected dip is the latest evidence that supply cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia – set to stay put for the rest of the year – have been piling pressure onto the market. And with OPEC (the group of major oil-producing nations) forecasting earlier this month that global markets may face the biggest deficit between supply and demand in over a decade, many market watchers see a $100-a-barrel price tag as inevitable. Why should I care? For markets: Just when we thought we were out, oil pulls us back in. Hedge funds are backing that $100 prediction, pulling their bets on oil futures up to an 18-month high. If they’re right, the price of oil will have climbed over 40% in the second half of this year. That’s more than enough to light up inflation, and could potentially undo central banks’ hard-won progress and force them to keep economy-busting interest rates higher for longer. The bigger picture: Green linings. Still, the International Energy Agency may be cheering on this whole debacle, since higher oil prices could encourage the world to use more alternative energy sources. After all, the agency’s latest assessment concluded that if governments want to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2050, demand for fossil fuels will need to fall by a quarter by the end of the decade. Specifically for oil, that’s a plunge from today’s 100 million barrels a day to 77 million by 2030 – and that could be a long shot. You might also like: [How to invest in the energy industry.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Essential Oils&utm_campaign=daily-global-29-09-2023&utm_source=email) Analyst Take The Biggest Winners And Losers Of The Weight-Loss Drug Theme [The Biggest Winners And Losers Of The Weight-Loss Drug Theme]( [Photo of Reda Farran] Reda Farran, Analyst [Weight-loss drugs]( have been the talk of the doctor’s office this year. You've probably already noticed [a handful of brand names]( making headlines after successfully taking inches off folks’ waistlines. And now that research in the area is ramping up, you can bet more innovative [medicine-makers will cash in from slimming down](. At the same time, companies that currently make money from soothing the effects of obesity could lose out. So that's today's Insight: [the weight-loss drug trend’s biggest losers and even bigger winners](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( SPONSORED BY IG These are the UK stocks to watch now The FTSE 250 isn’t having the best year, as any hardened UK stock investor can tell you. The country’s hot inflation, slow growth, and rising interest rates have been especially unkind to it – [leaving the index down by about 2.7% so far this year](. Its peers haven’t had it nearly so rough: the FTSE 100 is up 1.7%, and the S&P 500 is up an eye-grabbing 16%. Now, that’s worth spending a moment considering. See, when unhappy investor sentiment pulls a whole index lower, you can usually snap up some nice stocks [for a lot less than you'd usually pay](. And you don’t even have to go hunting for them: [IG's made a list of the FTSE 250 stocks to watch right now](. DisclaimerYour capital is at risk. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. [Check It Out]( Undone Deals [Undone Deals] What’s going on here? Global deal activity has [plummeted]( to a ten-year low. What does this mean? Barely any boardrooms have witnessed a firm negotiation and a handshake to match lately. In fact, only $2 trillion worth of merger and acquisition deals have been signed so far this year – the lowest total since 2013 and a 28% slip versus the same period in 2022, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group. And sure, three multi-billion-dollar deals got the finance world talking in September, but a murky outlook and sky-scrapingly high financing costs mean you shouldn’t bank on many more following suit. Case in point: there were 42% fewer $10 billion-plus deals made in the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same period last year. That puts the total value of global deals on track to post a double-digit dip for two years in a row – a first since the 2008 financial crisis. Why should I care? For markets: It’s all too quiet. Big banks make big money from advising on deals, so empty boardrooms aren’t a good sign for their books. Worldwide investment banking fees slipped 12% over the first nine months of this year versus the same period last year, with the third-quarter total hitting its lowest mark since the start of 2016. That’s an issue for the payroll, so major banks are set to slash over 11,000 roles this year. The bigger picture: Climate, please change. This slowdown in dealmaking is yet another sign that high interest rates are taking their toll on the economy. Rising rates have made it ridiculously expensive for companies to borrow the cash they need to fund acquisitions. And it’s been especially tough for private equity firms, which tend to be more aggressive and rely heavily on cheap financing to magnify their returns. You might also like: [What you need to know about dealmaking.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Undone Deals&utm_campaign=daily-global-29-09-2023&utm_source=email) 🤝 Partner with us Finimize is much more than just this newsletter: we’re a full-blown [one-stop shop]( for engaging with [modern investors](. So whether you’re a fintech, founder, or just a fed-up exec, rest assured – we’ve got [the solutions]( you need. [Book A Demo]( 💬 Quote of the day "I didn't like the play, but then I saw it under adverse conditions - the curtain was up." – Groucho Marx (an American comedian, actor, and writer) [Tweet this]( Maximize your open rates in a few simple steps If you’re reading this, it means the Finimize newsletter stood out in your teeming inbox – and that says a lot about the kind of [subject lines]( that we write. After years of work, millions of emails, and countless A/B tests, we've figured out [the formula]( for industry-leading open rates. And at long last, we’re letting everyone in on our secrets – with a [simple guide to world-class subject lines](. [Check It Out]( 🎯 On Our Radar 1. Your work crush really isn't all that. A [10 in the office]( isn't the same as a 10 at the bar. 2. Preparing for real-world investing. Discover [the theoretical elements of investing and portfolio construction](.* 3. Spooky season is here. 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