🇨🇳 China, the world’s overperformer

China shattered expectations | Delta thinks the sky's the limit | [TOGETHER WITH]( Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for April 14th in 3:15 minutes. 📈 Investing’s supposed to be about empowerment – but women's pensions, often much smaller than men's, don't match that lofty aim. So join Maike Currie for [Women And Investing: Powering Up Your Pension]( on April 25th, and take control of your financial future. [Get your free ticket]( Today's big stories - China gave the world a shock, with exports that overshot everyone’s expectations - These finely tuned indicators are all pointing toward a recession – [Read Now]( - Delta Air Lines is readying for liftoff and predicting bumper times ahead China’s Onward March [China’s Onward March] What’s Going On Here? Data out on Thursday [showed]( that March was kind to China, with exports defying economists’ expectations. What Does It Mean? Nobody was holding out much hope for China’s exports this time around. They’d already dropped 6.8% in January and February, and with South Korean exports – normally a global trade bellwether – plunging further last month, a weak March seemed to be written in the stars. At any rate, it was written in the forecasts, with economists betting on a 7%-plus drop that never actually materialized. See, despite the sluggish US market, demand remained strong elsewhere – especially in Southeast Asia – and it didn’t hurt that China’s factories finally returned to business as usual. Cars were the top performers, with yearly exports up 82% in dollar terms, followed by steel products and clothing. In the end, then, total exports grew by a wholly unexpected 14.8% – the biggest divergence from expectations in years. Why Should I Care? The bigger picture: No training wheels. Thriving exports were a life-support machine for China’s economy during the country’s Covid lockdowns – and this upswing will only help propel the country toward its growth targets. Mind you, the World Trade Organization sees global trade dipping below historic growth trends this year – and things could get especially thorny if the US stagnates in the second half of 2023. That might hit China’s exports – but if economists are right that there’s a new consumer-focused stimulus program in the pipeline, then there’s hope the domestic economy could plug the gap. Zooming out: Bei-bling. The world’s biggest luxury group, LVMH, is feeling pretty bullish about China’s prospects after its own strong results this week. While its US business struggled, its Asian operations, led by China, picked up the slack. That could be good news for other European luxury firms too – which might be why the likes of Richemont, Hermès, and Moncler also saw their stocks jump. You might also like: [Five spicy stocks for China's reopening.]( Copy to share story: [/chinas-onward-march]( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=China’s Onward March&utm_campaign=daily-global-14-04-2023&utm_source=email) Analyst Take Keep An Eye On These Three Big Real-World Recession Indicators [Keep An Eye On These Three Big Real-World Recession Indicators]( By Paul Allison, Analyst Don’t look now (or actually maybe do): Bank of America has recently put together 12 economic charts – what it’s calling the “[dirty dozen](” – and they’re all pointing toward a recession. These ugly-looking indicators reach [beyond the usual yield curve]( recession signals, and offer a clear look at what lies ahead across the economy. I’ve pulled out three that you’ll want to keep [an extra close eye on](. That’s today’s Insight: [the recession warnings you’ll want to watch and the steps you can take to protect your portfolio.]( [Read or listen to the Insight here]( SPONSORED BY HARGREAVES LANSDOWN Save your future self from feeling stressed out Nice one: you survived the panic that can come with the end of a tax year. But if you found yourself scrambling to use your account allowances before the clock struck tax o’clock, you’ll probably want to save yourself from feeling the same stress this time next year. If you're 18 to 39 and looking to invest toward your first home or later life, you could consider a [Lifetime ISA](. You can [tuck away up to £4,000]( every tax year until the age of 50. But you wouldn’t be the only one: for every £4 you save, [the government will add £1]( – granting you up to £1,000 per tax year. You can withdraw the money tax-free to purchase a qualifying first home, or after the age of 60. Other withdrawals will usually come with a 25% government withdrawal charge, so you could get back less than you put in. Tax rules can change and benefits depend on individual circumstances. [Find Out More]( When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. Hit The Skies Running [Hit The Skies Running] What’s Going On Here? Delta Air Lines is [gearing]( up for brighter skies. What Does It Mean? Delta's last quarter was more turbulence than smooth sailing, with fluctuating fuel prices and flight-grounding storms racking up a worse-than-expected $363 million loss for the airline. Add to that a new pilot’s contract including raises of 34%, and you'd expect Delta to be hitting the panic button. But the airline’s actually optimistic about the future: after all, it typically rakes in the majority of its revenue during the bustling spring and summer travel season, and international demand is currently flying high. In fact, Delta’s already experiencing a surge of momentum, citing record bookings for the summer and boasting ten of the highest sales days in its history last month. That might be why the airline forecast better-than-expected revenue and profit for this quarter, sending stock skyward. Why Should I Care? Zooming in: Going up in the world. Consumer demand could still falter if a recession hits, but Delta's staying positive. See, the firm's got a backup plan in case adversity strikes: [doubling down]( on premium travel offerings. The thinking is that an economic nosedive might clip the wings of budget-conscious coach passengers, but it’ll be barely noticed by well-heeled jet-setters (who are a whole lot more profitable for airlines anyway). The upshot: every day this year, Delta’s planning to offer 15,000 more premium seats than it did in pre-pandemic times – including premium options on each flight from this summer onward. For markets: Crash landing. Airline stocks kicked off the year strong, but concerns that demand could fizzle out have investors biting their nails. Add in the recent oil price spike following the OPEC meeting earlier this month – which could further hike fuel costs – as well as the industry's lingering debt burden, and it’s no wonder sentiment has reversed. In fact, investor bets against the industry are now at their [highest]( since Covid struck. You might also like: [The highs and lows of investing in the airline industry.]( Copy to share story: [/wing-and-prayer]( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Hit The Skies Running&utm_campaign=daily-global-14-04-2023&utm_source=email) 💬 Quote of the day "History never looks like history when you are living through it." – John W. Gardner (an American educator and public official) [Tweet this]( SPONSORED BY RAISIN You could cut the uncertainty in the air with a knife And in an environment like that, a bit of peace of mind sounds more appealing than ever. That’s why [Raisin UK]( – the platform where you can [hold multiple savings accounts]( under one roof – is offering [FSCS-protected returns of up to 4.6%](. You can [pick from a batch of easy-access savings accounts](. And what’s more, notice and fixed-term products that start from just [three months]( can give you all the flexibility you need. That gives you faster access to your money – and to [Raisin’s multiple savings offers]( – on your terms. You can find out more about [fixed returns with Raisin UK](. [Find Out More]( When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🌍 Finimize Live 🥳 Coming Up This Week... All events in UK time. 🌎 [How To Invest Like A Venture Capitalist](: 6pm, April 17th 💰 [How To Build Wealth In The New Tax Year](: 1pm, April 18th 👀 And After That... 🙋‍♀️ [Women And Investing: Powering Up Your Pension](: 5pm, April 25th 🚀 [Meet The Founder: Selina IPO](: 5pm, May 3rd 💥 [Investing 101: The DIY Investor](: 1pm, May 4th 🎉 [Modern Investor Summit 2023](: 12pm, December 5th and 6th 🎯 On Our Radar 1. Hot take showdown. After a few warning shots, Twitter and Substack have [called a truce]( for now. 2. Alternative investments could be worth $23 trillion by 2026. This online event can help you [separate the up-and-comers from the has-beens](.* 3. A remote possibility. Remote-working nomads are [pricing out locals]( in communities across the world. 4. The tech world has some awe-inspiring brains. They reveal what makes them so special [on this podcast](.* 5. Wordle 2.0. Let's hope the NYT’s [latest game]( is as addictive as our favorite lockdown puzzle. 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