👀 Morgan Stanley’s eyeing metal

PayPal missed the mark | The UK dodged a recession | [TOGETHER WITH]( Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for February 13th in 3:09 minutes. ❤️ Valentine’s Day might be all about celebrating your one true love, but you can be a bit more experimental when it comes to investing. Join IG’s Martin Harris for [How To Build A Smart Portfolio]( on February 14th, and discover the benefits of keeping your options open. [Get your free ticket now]( Today's big stories - The UK avoided a recession by the skin of its teeth last quarter - China could be putting a new shine on iron ore and aluminum – [Read Now]( - PayPal’s disappointing results left investors with a pretty painful headache Near Miss [Near Miss] What’s Going On Here? Data released on Friday [revealed]( that the UK economy had a brush with disaster, narrowly escaping a recession last year. What Does This Mean? Economists were biting their nails as this report approached: after all, the previous quarter’s economic shrinkage meant the slightest stumble would catapult Britain into a technical recession, with the economy contracting for two straight quarters. But the UK dodged that fate by a hair’s breadth, scraping by with zero growth last quarter thanks to a bonus bank holiday and some extra World Cup spending. That said, the UK could be in for even more trouble if the tail end of the period is anything to go by: December fell short of even the gloomiest predictions, with output dropping 0.5% as folk economized and strikes walloped the country. Why Should I Care? The bigger picture: Long haul. This result means the UK economy is still down 0.8% from where it was at the same time in 2019 – making it the only G7 economy that hasn't yet bounced back from the pandemic. To put that in context, the US has grown an impressive 5.1% in the meantime, and even the war-plagued eurozone has managed a decent 2.4%. But the Bank of England says the UK’s in for a marathon before it gets back to where it was: with energy prices and borrowing costs set to shrink the economy this year, the central bank thinks it’ll be 2026 before the economy’s in pre-pandemic shape ([tweet this](). For markets: FTSE’s flying. The British economy might be staggering, but the FTSE 100 – which tracks the country’s 100 biggest stocks – strode ahead last week and [smashed]( its own record highs. It's not hard to guess why: 80% of the revenue that FTSE 100 companies make comes from abroad – so when the pound takes a nosedive, the exchange rate works in their favor. Plus, financial, commodity, and energy firms make up a big chunk of the index, and they’re all cruising high right now. You might also like: [Morgan Stanley says the UK could deliver a huge surprise in 2023.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Near Miss&utm_campaign=daily-global-13-02-2023&utm_source=email) Analyst Take These Two Assets May Gleam Especially Brightly With China’s Reopening [These Two Assets May Gleam Especially Brightly With China’s Reopening]( By Luke Suddards, Analyst In terms of [market-moving events](, they don’t get much bigger than what’s going on in China right now. The [government’s decisions]( to reverse its Covid restrictions and to inject its moribund property market with fresh stimulus [are huge](. It means a boost for stocks, sure, but also for the stuff right under your feet. And [Morgan Stanley]( believes that two commodities – [iron ore and aluminum]( – are in prime position to benefit. That’s today’s Insight: [why China may put a new shine on iron ore and aluminum.]( [Read or listen to the Insight here]( Finimize x Revolut You’re buzzing with renewed optimism and energy – we can practically feel it from here. So if you want to revamp your financial setup this year, this deal might do the trick. If you sign up for [Revolut Premium]( today, you’ll get three months of the financial super-app for free. Zero. Zilch. You’ll also unlock six free months of [Finimize Premium](, so you can brush up on the best investment opportunities for free. Oh, you’ll find £10 (or equivalent) in your new Revolut account too: just [sign up today](. SPONSORED BY IG Fall in love with diversification all over again You might’ve been lucky enough to find your one true love, perfect in every way. But when it comes to investing, you might want to stay in the dating pool a little while longer: see, no one asset can give you everything you want, so [you’ll need to mix it up a bit](. Yup, we’re talking polygamy: [a diversified portfolio]( could get you through the tough times, and build you up during the good ones. And this Valentine’s, IG is walking you through your options. You’ll find out the [pros and cons of different asset classes](, and when they tend to thrive and fail. By the end of the session, you’ll know which ones could make your portfolio’s heart flutter. Join IG’s Martin Harris online on February 14th, and [find out everything you need to know about diversification](. (It’s at 1pm UK time, so you won’t need to cancel that romantic dinner for two.) [Register Here]( Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. PayPain [PayPain] What’s Going On Here? PayPal left investors squirming late last week, with some painful quarterly [results](. What Does This Mean? It might have been the festive season, but last quarter’s spending won’t have anyone celebrating: after all, Visa and Mastercard both felt the chill of the lackluster holiday, and now it looks like PayPal’s wound up in the same, sad boat. The total value of payments made on the platform grew by a measly 9% last quarter, marking an even starker slowdown than analysts predicted. And sure, overall revenue did hit the mark, but consumer spending looks set to stay tight – leaving the firm with only one real option: slashing costs. So far, 7% of the workforce have been shown the door, which might be why the firm gave a hopeful profit forecast for the year ahead. But spooked investors were more skeptical, and shares took a tumble when the news broke. Why Should I Care? The bigger picture: Winning a losing game. Squeezed consumers do present PayPal with one upside: more interest in its buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services. Data out last month showed demand for BNPL offerings is on the up across all age groups, including a concerning rise among the elderly. The thing is, though, that’s not really the kind of business PayPal needs right now: offering interest-free loans is a tough gig, what with central banks on an all-out rate-hiking crusade. And that’s not to mention the higher risk of bad loans now that so many households are in dire straits… Zooming out: A soft Affirm. Pure-play BNPL firms certainly aren’t having a good time right now: late last week, US-based Affirm [reported]( whopper losses that confirmed investors' worst fears. The business said it's planning to right things by cutting flailing crypto offerings and (surprise, surprise) axing jobs, but investors have been hearing that spiel a lot lately, and they lost no time in ditching its stock. You might also like: [Those mass layoffs in tech don’t mean we’re diving into a recession.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=PayPain&utm_campaign=daily-global-13-02-2023&utm_source=email) 💬 Quote of the day “Between two evils, I always pick the one I never tried before.” – Mae West (an American stage and film actress) [Tweet this]( Our community wants to know your name Building a good brand is hard work. So if you’re proud of the work you do, you best make sure everyone knows about it. You could start by [introducing yourself to our one-million-strong community](: they’re a global bunch of switched-on, savvy retail investors who want to take their investing skills up a notch. 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