🍀 Russia gets lucky

A hoax report wasn't too far off | Russia isn't giving out oil | [TOGETHER WITH]( Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for July 14th in 3:05 minutes. ☕️ Finimized over a lemon and lime bitter at [TwinFin]( in Lagos, Portugal (🌥 33°C/91°F) Today's big stories - US inflation continued to climb last month, if not as much as a fake report would have had you believe - Russia’s poised to shut off a major gas line to Europe, so now might be a good time to give a new trade a try – [Read Now]( - Russia’s oil exports fell in June, but a rising price kept the country of out trouble The Price Is Wrong [The Price Is Wrong] What’s Going On Here? Data out on Wednesday [showed]( that US consumer prices continued to climb by more than expected last month. What Does This Mean? Earlier this week, a report emerged [claiming]( that US consumer prices were 10.2% higher in June than the same time last year. And while it turned out to be a hoax, it certainly seemed plausible enough: the US government has, after all, been downplaying the latest inflation numbers ahead of the real update. It was so plausible, in fact, that stocks slumped following its release. Fake or not, it wasn’t far off: consumer prices rose 9.1% in June, well above May’s 8.6% and April’s 8.3%. That was mostly down to – you guessed it – energy and food prices, which were 42% and 10% higher than the same time last year. And even though salaries have been rising lately, clearly they haven’t been rising fast enough: the data showed that inflation-adjusted hourly wages fell 3.6% – the biggest drop since 2007. Why Should I Care? For markets: Are stocks about to rally? Higher prices and lower salaries could lead to a drop in consumer spending, which is bound to be flagged as a concern this earnings season. But Deutsche Bank doesn’t think it’ll lead to another stock market selloff: the bank [argues]( that the writing has been on the wall for a while now. In fact, Deutsche has pointed out that the market has historically rallied during an earnings season that follows a selloff like the one we’ve just seen. The bigger picture: The almighty dollar. This data only makes it more likely the Fed will hike interest rates substantially again later this month, which will continue to make the US dollar an appealing prospect for international savers and investors. The ECB’s reluctance to hike rates, meanwhile, is having the opposite effect on the euro. That might be why the euro [fell]( below the value of the greenback for the first time in 20 years on Wednesday. You might also like: [With the euro and dollar trading at parity, Europe’s in a tough spot.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=The Price Is Wrong&utm_campaign=daily-global-14-07-2022&utm_source=email) Analyst Take How To Hedge Yourself If Russia Pulls The Plug On European Gas [How To Hedge Yourself If Russia Pulls The Plug On European Gas]( [Photo of Reda Farran] Reda Farran, Analyst And we’re off. Russia has now halted the flow of gas through the [Nord Stream pipeline]( – Europe’s main gas import infrastructure – for 10 days of scheduled maintenance. The taps will come back on again on the 21st July. Or at least, that’s what Europe is [hoping](. It’s nervous that Russia might be taking the chance to [cut off its supply for good](, and that it might only be a matter of time before the aggrieved country does the same to the other key pipelines. But while the move would have major consequences for consumers, the economy, and your portfolio, there is [a way to protect yourself](. So that’s today’s Insight: [how to hedge yourself if Russia pulls the plug](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( SPONSORED BY YONDER Get credit card points you’ll actually use Points aren’t that fun when you can only use them on flights to unknown cities on a Tuesday in November. But with [Yonder](, you can spend your hard-earned points on things you actually want to do in London. Think meals at [snazzy restaurants](, tickets to [Secret Cinema](, and [luxury countryside getaways](. That’s not the only reason to try [Yonder](, mind you: you’ll also get [worldwide family travel insurance](, [Mastercard Priceless benefits](, purchase protection, and a darn good-looking [metal card](. You can also spend away without paying any foreign exchange fees, and you can talk to a real person anytime with Yonder’s [24/7 customer support team](. Yup, all for [just £15 a month](. Oh, and there’s one more thing: apply now and you’ll get a [£50 experience and your first 3 months free](. [Check It Out]( Approval is subject to eligibility. Over 18 & UK residents only. Membership fee applies. Borrow responsibly. T&Cs apply. Rep 59.3% APR var. Oils Of War [Oils Of War] What’s Going On Here? The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Wednesday [estimating]( that Russian oil exports dropped off last month. What Does This Mean? Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe – by far the country’s biggest oil export market – has gradually been phasing out its oil. And while the Middle East and elsewhere are still buying the country’s slippery elixir, they haven’t been taking enough to make up for Europe’s principled stand: the IEA estimates that Russian daily exports fell by 250,000 barrels in June. But Russia has had one saving grace: the price of oil averaged $117 a barrel last month, as global supplies continued to fail to keep up with a post-pandemic rebound in demand. So even though Russia exported far less of the dusky earth juice, the value of its oil exports still rose by $700 million to over $20 billion in June ([tweet this](). Why Should I Care? The bigger picture: More demand, please. Oil’s higher price is already impacting demand for the commodity by more than the IEA first thought, which might be why the agency has lowered its estimates for global demand. It now thinks demand will overtake pre-Covid levels next year rather than this one, and also [warned]( that faltering demand poses a real risk to the global recovery – not to mention the economic stability of emerging economies. Zooming out: It’s up to the governments. The US is urging Middle Eastern producers to help boost supply, but it’s not quite that simple: Saudi Arabia and the UAE only have the capacity to increase their daily output by 2.2 million barrels a day. That might sound like a lot, but the world gets through about [4 million]( an hour. So the IEA is recommending governments create their own policies to limit energy use, in a bid to keep their economies on track. You might also like: [No one’s ignoring energy prices, so why is everyone ignoring utilities stocks?]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Oils Of War&utm_campaign=daily-global-14-07-2022&utm_source=email) 💬 Quote of the day “Some people want it to happen, some wish it would happen, others make it happen.” – Michael Jordan (an American businessman and former professional basketball player) [Tweet this]( SPONSORED BY NOBIAS Analyze the analysts [Nobias]( is on a mission to make financial media more transparent for young investors. 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