🤓 Goldman’s recession manual

Chipmakers aren't foolproof after all | Copper sinks | [TOGETHER WITH]( Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for July 4th in 3:12 minutes. 👴🏼 One day you’ll be telling your grandkids stories about these crazy times – in your 10-bed mansion, of course. Well, that’s if you join BlackRock’s Henry MacLeod and Penfold’s Chris Eastwood for [Managing Your Pension In A Cost-Of-Living Crisis]( on Wednesday, where you’ll find out how to set yourself up for your later years. [Grab your ticket]( Today's big stories - Chipmaker Micron doesn’t have high hopes for the future - Goldman Sachs has published a manual on previous recessions, and it could tell you a lot about where this one goes next – [Read Now]( - Copper dropped to its lowest price since early last year Supply And… Supply [Supply And… Supply] What’s Going On Here? Micron [revealed]( a disappointing outlook for this quarter late last week. What Does This Mean? Micron – the biggest maker of memory chips in the US – saw its revenue climb 16% last quarter from the same time last year to an all-time high. But that was its most modest uptick in over a year, and the company – which admitted that demand was tailing off fast – gave a far worse-than-expected revenue outlook too. Shoppers, after all, are cutting down on the big-ticket technology that houses Micron’s semiconductors, leading the makers of the devices to scale back on their own orders. So Micron is doing what every self-sacrificing young professional is doing in these overpriced times: it’s planning to cut spending on new plants. That way, it can slow down manufacturing and burn through existing stockpiles. The company even said it would start walking away from orders where the customer exploits the oversupply to negotiate big price cuts, which it hopes will minimize any impact on its profit. Why Should I Care? The bigger picture: South Korea is a warning. You can see this situation playing out more widely too: data out last week [showed]( that stockpiles of chips in South Korea – the world's biggest producer of memory chips – was 53% higher in May than the year before. The last time inventory grew this fast was in March 2018, and it preceded a drop-off in revenue growth across the entire industry. Zooming in: Boom or bust? These are all the hallmarks of an industry slipping into a boom-and-bust cycle, where producers overproduce in the good times only to be left with a glut when demand drops off. But at least memory chips are essential to just about everything these days, which means that a chipmaking boom-and-bust should be far less severe than it would’ve been in the past. Micron certainly thinks so: it said it’s expecting a rebound in orders in the next year or so. You might also like: [The tools you need to value Micron’s stock.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Supply And… Supply&utm_campaign=daily-global-04-07-2022&utm_source=email) Analyst Take What Goldman’s Recession Manual Is Telling Us About This Recession [What Goldman’s Recession Manual Is Telling Us About This Recession]( [Photo of Stéphane Renevier] Stéphane Renevier, Analyst Goldman Sachs is famous for its [recession manual](: a how-to handbook on past recessions and what brought them about. And now, with almost every economist predicting that the US is headed for a slowdown, it’s the perfect time to pick up the manual and dig into [the three metrics]( it focuses on. It shows, for example, that share prices have fallen less and for a shorter period of time than during [the usual recession-era bear market](. So if stocks experience a loss of 50% like they have done in the past, they’ll fall another 37% from where they are now… So that’s today’s Insight: [what Goldman’s recession manual can tell you about what’s next](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( SPONSORED BY PENFOLD You wouldn’t treat your other investments like this… Your pension will probably be the biggest investment you ever own. So why do so many of us lose sight of how much we’re earning, not to mention accept it as a given when we lose track of pots from old jobs? With [Penfold](, you can transfer all your old pensions to one pot and let [its powerful digital pension technology]( grow your money for you. You get to choose from [four investment plans](, all managed by BlackRock and designed to help you reach your savings goals. [Penfold]( will even claim your 25% tax relief bonus for you. And if you want to get into the nitty-gritty, take a deep-dive with Penfold’s [Explore Your Pension]( tool and track your pension’s growth from one month to the next. Unlock your pension’s potential today: [download Penfold](. [Power Up Your Pension]( Capital at risk. It’s important to compare providers’ fees & any guaranteed benefits when deciding on whether to transfer, and be sure that the investments available are suitable for you. We cannot accept defined benefit pension transfers. If you decide to close your Penfold account and the value of your pot has gone down, the amount returned to the provider may be less than what you originally transferred. Cop-Out [Cop-Out] What’s Going On Here? The price of copper [hit]( its lowest in around 18 months on Friday, in a grim sign for the global economy. What Does This Mean? Here’s our elevator pitch for why you should care about copper: it’s essential to everyday appliances, electric vehicles, construction, transportation, and infrastructure, and demand for the red metal is seen as a good way to gauge the health of the global economy. So somebody dial 911: the price of copper sank below $8,000 a ton on Friday – its lowest since the world was still in the grips of the pandemic in early 2021. It could slip even more if the US and Europe end up stumbling into a recession, with analysts speculating that the supply of copper will be 10% higher than demand in the next couple of years. And to think, it wasn’t so long ago that the world was struggling to get its hands on the stockpiles it needed… Why Should I Care? The bigger picture: Do your thing, China. Copper investors are pinning their hopes on China to at least partially fill the hole in demand, and they might be onto something. For one thing, data out late last week [showed]( that the country’s manufacturing activity grew in June for the first time in four months. And for another, the government [announced]( $45 billion worth of support measures on Friday to finance infrastructure projects and boost the economy. Zooming out: Europeans are in this for the long haul. It’s not just copper either: an index tracking the prices of six "[base metals](" had its steepest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis last quarter ([tweet this](). That makes them a bit of an outlier among commodities, with energy prices having risen by a record 42% in Europe last month. That [pushed]( inflation in the region up to a record 8.6%, which some economists think will only come down to around 7.5% by the end of the year if the European Central Bank sticks to its current rate-hiking plan. You might also like: [Copper falling further could mean there’s finally something worth buying.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Cop-Out&utm_campaign=daily-global-04-07-2022&utm_source=email) 💬 Quote of the day “The best way to cheer yourself up is to try to cheer somebody else up.” – Mark Twain (an American writer, humorist, and entrepreneur) [Tweet this]( SPONSORED BY BITCOIN.COM A safe and secure crypto future Crypto has been in the news for all the wrong reasons recently, with companies in the space taking on too much risk and falling into insolvency. And since their customers probably won’t recover their money, you’d be forgiven for being skeptical about the rest of the industry. 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