📉 Okay, here comes the recession

The US has jobs to spare | Everyone say, "no deal" | [TOGETHER WITH]( Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for April 4th in 3:17 minutes. 🌊 The new wave of the internet is about to roll in. Join The Funding Crowd’s Dr Hannah Forbes for [How DAOs Are Changing The Money Game]( on Monday, and find out how to ride that Web3 era better than you ever imagined was possible. [Grab your ticket]( Today's big stories - The US added fewer jobs than expected last month - Here’s how to protect your portfolio now this near-perfect indicator has predicted a recession – [Read Now]( - Global dealmaking fell to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic last quarter The Not-So-Great Resignation [The Not-So-Great Resignation] What’s Going On Here? Data out on Friday [showed]( that the US added fewer jobs than expected last month, and companies are getting to a point where they’ll take what they can get. What Does This Mean? The US has beaten economists’ expectations for the last two months, but clearly it couldn’t handle the mounting pressure: the country posted 431,000 new jobs last month – some way shy of the 490,000 economists were expecting. And while that’s nothing to be sniffed at, there are still almost twice as many job openings as there are job seekers. Still, let’s look at the bigger picture: the US added nearly 1.7 million jobs last quarter, which puts economists’ expectations to shame. What’s more, the proportion of people in or looking for work – known as the “labor force participation rate” – is back to within a hair’s breadth of pre-pandemic levels. Why Should I Care? The bigger picture: We’re spiraling. Desperate times call for desperate measures: a near-record 49% of small US businesses [raised]( salaries in March in an effort to fill their vacant roles, helping push the average hourly pay up 5.6% from the same time last year. Thing is, businesses will probably just pass those higher costs back onto customers by raising prices, and that potential “wage price spiral” could push up inflation and put more even pressure on the economy as a whole. For markets: A recession is nearly inevitable. Investors are worried that Friday’s strong data will encourage the Federal Reserve to push ahead with plans to raise interest rates multiple times this year, potentially even with bigger increases than the typical 0.25%. And since investors are aware of the short-term damage that could do to economic growth, they’re flocking to longer-term assets like 10-year bonds. In fact, demand for them [pushed]( their yields lower than those of 2-year bonds on Friday. That “inversion” is as rare as it is foreboding: it’s historically been a sign of an imminent recession. You might also like: [The markets that could inherit a fortune from rising interest rates.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=The Not-So-Great Resignation&utm_campaign=daily-global-04-04-2022&utm_source=email) Analyst Take Could This Near-Perfect Recession Indicator Have It Wrong? [Could This Near-Perfect Recession Indicator Have It Wrong?]( [Photo of Stéphane Renevier] Stéphane Renevier, Analyst What’s Going On Here? Cue the dramatic duh-duh-duhhh: the [“yield curve”]( briefly inverted last week. That’s usually agreed to be a pretty unequivocal sign that the global economy is set to shrink, not least because an inversion has predicted [all but one recession]( since the 1950s. But some dissenting voices – the Federal Reserve among them – believe [this time will be different](. So, will it? That’s today’s Insight: why the yield curve is such a reliable indicator of recessions, and [whether you should believe what it’s telling you now](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( SPONSORED BY DACXI Crypto, the simple way There’s a lot to think about when you start your crypto journey, not least which coins to choose. That’s why [Dacxi]( decided to simplify the process: it’s made it easy to [get to grips with crypto]( and [build up the portfolio]( you’ve always wanted. Just pick your favorite [Dacxi bundle]( – like [blue chip]( or [precious metals]( – to stock up on some of the world’s top coins. But you’re not locked in: you can sell your coins individually too. Then just sit back and enjoy your new portfolio. Well, unless you fancy using [Dacxi’s educational tools]( to develop your skills, or feel like meeting fellow crypto fans in [Dacxi’s community](. Discover how simple crypto can be: [check out Dacxi](. [Find Out More]( *The information provided in this article does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of this article’s content as such. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding Cryptocurrencies is suitable for you relative to your financial position. The price of cryptocurrency can go down as well as up and past performance is not a guide to future performance. Investors may not get back the full amount originally invested. The information in this article is believed to be reliable. Dacxi has taken reasonable care to ensure the information stated is accurate. However, Dacxi makes no representation, guarantee or warranty that it is wholly accurate and complete. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial adviser before making any investment decision. Top Dollar [Top Dollar] What’s Going On Here? Data out last week [showed]( that global dealmaking hit its lowest level since the start of the pandemic last quarter, now that every cent has become that much more precious. What Does This Mean? It was a [record]( year for [mergers and acquisitions (M&A)]( last year, and there were a couple of key reasons why. First, interest rates were so low that companies would’ve been crazy not to borrow cheap money while they could. And for another, they didn’t even need to borrow cash: stock prices were so high that companies could pay up using their own shares instead. But this year’s taken a turn: central banks have been hiking interest rates to slow down rising prices, which has made it more expensive to borrow cash. And last quarter’s stock market dip meant companies’ shares suddenly didn’t go nearly as far. All that, at a time when higher costs are weighing heavier on their bottom lines. Say no more: the value of deals struck was 23% lower than the same time last year. Why Should I Care? Zooming in: Silver linings. Still, it’s all relative, and companies were still keen to buy up other businesses. Firstly, this was the seventh-straight quarter where companies shook hands on a total of over $1 trillion worth of M&A. Secondly, they signed more deals worth over $10 billion than the same time last year. And thirdly, private equity groups – which buy struggling firms, improve them, and then sell them on for a profit – spent a record amount on deals during the first quarter of the year. The bigger picture: Your luck is running out, big banks. Investment banks charge fees for advising on M&A, so this slowdown has analysts [expecting]( some of the world’s biggest banks – including Citigroup and JPMorgan – to report a drop in quarterly profits for the first time in nearly two years. That might explain why JPMorgan’s and Citi’s stocks have fallen around three times as much as the US stock market this year. You might also like: [How to protect your investments from the dealmaking drop-off.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Top Dollar&utm_campaign=daily-global-04-04-2022&utm_source=email) 💬 Quote of the day “Scribble out the world since it was not to your liking and make up a new one, something better.” – Alice McDermott (an American writer and university professor) [Tweet this]( SPONSORED BY DACXI Knowledge in crypto is key It’s hard to make the most of the crypto boom without knowing the ins and outs of the market. So why not check out [Dacxi Learn’s free courses](: they’re an easy way to boost your crypto skills, whether you’re a finance pro or a complete novice. New to crypto? Get up to speed on everything from the very basics to [security and wealth-building tips]( with [Dacxi’s starter course](. 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