NLCS Preview: Diamondbacks vs Phillies

The FanGraphs Newsletter, October 16, 2023 [READ IN BROWSER]( October 16, 2023 If you need a reminder that anything can happen in a short postseason series, this is it, because the Phillies and Diamondbacks just pulled off two of the biggest upsets in postseason history as defined by [regular season winning percentage differentials](. The Phillies (90-72, .556) upended the Braves (104-58, .642) in a four-game thriller that left presumptive NL MVP [Ronald Acuña Jr.]( [speechless]( the Diamondbacks (84-78, .519) swept the Dodgers (100-62, .617) into oblivion, holding MVP candidate [Mookie Betts]( hitless and knocking [Clayton Kershaw]( out in the first inning. Perhaps the results shouldn’t have been quite as shocking as they were, given that we’ve all seen our share of October upsets. The Phillies should remind us of that, as a cast very similar to this year’s knocked off a powerhouse Braves team on the way to their first pennant in 13 years just last season. It’s worth remembering as we evaluate any postseason team that they’ve all undergone substantial changes — some for the better, some for the worse — on their way through the 162-game season and the first two rounds of the postseason. By the regular season numbers, this would appear to be a mismatch, with the Phillies having an edge in every category except strikeout and walk rates, stolen bases, and baserunning. Thus far in the postseason, however, the two teams have been very similar, each thumping 13 homers and producing similar slash lines [READ MORE]( [Jordan Montgomery Shines in Pitcher's Duel, Rangers Take ALCS Game 1]( The Battle of Texas was highlighted by a fantastic pitching duel won by the southpaw, Montgomery. | by Esteban Rivera [Pressure Makes Diamond(back)s: Arizona Bullpen Clicking at the Right Time]( A wobbly Diamondbacks bullpen has found stability at the right time, but the NLCS is another animal. | by Chris Gilligan [ALDS Managerial Report Card: Rocco Baldelli]( The Twins didn't win the ALDS, but Baldelli consistently made decisions that gave them the best chance at it. | by Ben Clemens [Gabriel Moreno Is Peaking at the Right Time]( With improvements in framing and offensive pop, Moreno has quickly ascended into stardom during the playoffs. | by Esteban Rivera [Sunday Notes: Five Years and a Rule-5 Later, Ryan Noda Receives a Third Comp]( Plus Patrick Kivlehan's unique path, Dixie Howell's obscure records, Mookie was almost a Padre, a Brooklyn Dodgers redux, facts and stats galore, and more. | by David Laurila 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2072: Can You Take Me Higher (or Lower)]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [Kim Ng won't return as Marlins general manager]( by Christina DeNicola, MLB [How Jordan Montgomery finally beat Yordan Alvarez]( by Jeff Passan, ESPN [Phillies didn’t just target bullpen velocity — they built something that would last into October]( by Matt Gelb, The Athletic ($) [Ranking Dodgers Playoff Exits since 2013]( by Pablo Figueroa, Pitcher List [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2023 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](