The 2023 ZiPS Game-by-Game Postseason Odds Are Live!

The FanGraphs Newsletter, October 2, 2023 [READ IN BROWSER]( October 2, 2023 For those of you who are new to the ZiPS playoff projections, or who wisely don’t reserve portions of their brain for remembering Dan Szymborski stuff, the playoff model is much different than the generalized seasonal model you see utilized in the articles he publishes over the course of the season. The macro-level projections used to forecast a full 162-game season are less suitable when applied to the postseason, given the more compact nature of a three-, five-, or seven-game series. When you’re looking a week into the future rather than half a year, you’re able to take a more ground-level view of the relative strength of teams. You’re able to make educated guesses as to who is starting each game, what the lineups will look like, who is healthy and who is not, and so on. The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher’s and batter’s line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team’s generalized offensive strength. The playoffs also come with the benefit of being able to run the full, more robust model of ZiPS rather than the simpler model used during the regular season, a compromise necessitated by the fact that projecting a majors’ worth of players takes more than a day. These odds will be updated continually as we get closer to first pitch in each round and each game’s starters become clear. You can see what the current odds show for the Rangers x Rays series below. [The 2023 ZiPS Game-by-Game Postseason Odds Are Live, by Dan Szymborski]( [FanGraphs Power Rankings: 2023 Playoffs Edition]( Which teams look the strongest and which look like underdogs this October? | by Jake Mailhot [American League Wild Card Preview: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers]( Arguably the two most talented teams in the AL square off for the right to face the AL East champion Orioles. | by Kyle Kishimoto [National League Wild Card Preview: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies]( The Mariners couldn't quite pull it out. The Marlins didn't let a little water bother them. Randy Arozarena got wild, just like always. Joey Votto got ejected (?!). All that and more in the last Five Things of the year. | by Ben Clemens [Five Things I Liked (Or Didn't Like) As the Regular Season Wrapped Up]( Should the Blue Jays' top prospect follow the footsteps of the Giants' freshly-minted big leaguer, or look to blaze his own path? | by Tess Taruskin [An Illustrated Guide to the Postseason Celebrations: National League]( Not sure which team to root for during the postseason? Learn how they celebrate their victories and big plays. Up first, the National League. | by Davy Andrews [American League Wild Card Preview: Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays]( Two evenly matched teams enter, one misunderstood team leaves. | by Ben Clemens 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2066: Moral Tarpitude]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [2023 MLB playoffs: World Series odds, postseason preview]( via ESPN [The pitch clock meets the postseason: MLB’s new rules face October pressure]( by Andy McCullough, The Athletic ($) [J.P. Crawford Is A Whole New Player]( by Miles Schachner, Pitcher List [All 12 postseason lineups and pitching staffs, ranked]( by Anthony Castrovince, MLB [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2023 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](