Happy 4th of July!

The FanGraphs Newsletter, July 3, 2023 [READ IN BROWSER]( July 3, 2023 Last season, Shohei Ohtani had one of the greatest seasons in history that did not result in taking home an MVP trophy. His misfortune in 2022 was running into one of the best offensive campaigns that anyone living can remember, with Aaron Judge putting up a 207 wRC+ and 11.5 WAR without any known pitching skills to utilize. Most writers still don’t vote entirely or even primarily based on WAR-type metrics, so Judge setting a new American League single-season home run record, with 62, was also quite helpful. Fast forward to 2023, and Judge’s toe injury has basically ended any chance of him repeating his MVP feat, but Ohtani has been doing his best to ensure that even a healthy Judge would have had trouble doing so. Ohtani’s never been a shabby hitter, with a .265/.364/.554 line, 146 wRC+, and 80 homers over the last two seasons. Those are star-level numbers, but not historic ones. This year is another matter entirely. He’s cranked his offense into overdrive and now stands at .306/.390/.670 with 31 homers as the Angels have played past the halfway point of the 2023 season. Over at Sports Illustrated, Emma Baccellieri made a solid argument that Ohtani’s June may have been the best month by an individual in major league history. He has crushed 10 homers in his last 16 games and now leads all of baseball in round-trippers, three more than Atlanta’s Matt Olson. So will Ohtani pass Judge? Well, I’ve got a projection system, and it would be a crime to not ask it. The full-version of the ZiPS in-season model gives Ohtani a final projection of 53 home runs, based on him hitting home runs in 22 of 303 projected plate appearances (7.3%). [Aaron Judge's American League Home Run Reign May Be Short-Lived, by Dan Szymborski]( [Rangers Boost Bullpen with Aroldis Chapman Trade]( After a miserable season in which he pitched his way out of the Bronx, the volatile fireballer joins another contender. | by Jay Jaffe [On Comfort, Perfect Games, and Domingo Germán]( How do we reconcile on-field achievements with the imperfect people who author them? | by Kyle Kishimoto [FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 26–July 2]( The Braves ascend to the top of the FanGraphs Power Rankings this week. | by Jake Mailhot [Kansas City Royals Top 42 Prospects]( This system is marked by an inability to develop pitching, with many high picks stagnating at their pre-draft skill level. | by Eric Longenhagen [Jazz Chisholm and Jean Segura Know Fastpitch]( Plus Connor Van Scoyoc's bloodlines, Al Pedrique on Johan Rojas, tomahawk chop negativity, official scoring and errors, facts and stats galore, and more. | by David Laurila [And Now, the Worst Team Defenses]( Another ladle dipped into the alphabet soup of defensive metrics. | by Jay Jaffe [The Lefty Ketel Marte Is Performing Better Than Ever]( After taking a year off, Marte is back to hitting right-handed pitching with authority. | by Esteban Rivers 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2027: The First Half of the Season, Summed Up]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [2023 MLB draft guide: Best fits, to-do list for all 30 teams]( by Kiley McDaniel, ESPN [If Reds take advantage of trade deadline, they could shock the world in October]( by Jim Bowden, The Athletic ($) [How is Dan Dunning Doing This?]( by Ben Palmer, Pitcher List [ASG deep dive: 11 fun facts on this year's rosters]( by Sarah Langs, MLB [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2023 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](