Six Takeaways from our Playoff Odds

The FanGraphs Newsletter, February 17, 2023 [READ IN BROWSER]( February 17, 2023 Hi there! This is a code red. The Dodgers are projected for fewer than 90 wins. This is not a drill. Please proceed directly to the panic room. FanGraphs began calculating playoff odds and projected win totals in 2014. We’ve projected the Dodgers for 90-plus wins (or a pro-rated version thereof in 2020) every year. Until now, that is. Why is that? In a word, pitching. We’re projecting the Dodgers to have average run prevention overall, which is a far cry from their recent form. In the past six years, they’ve allowed the fewest runs in baseball three times and the second-fewest three times. Our central projection has them allowing 150 more runs than they did in 2022. That’s, uh, a lot of runs. [Six Takeaways From Our Playoff Odds, by Ben Clemens]( [We May Never Find Out How Good Umpires Can Be]( Umpires are still getting better at calling balls and strikes, but before they can reach their ceiling, the robots will likely take matters into their own metal hands. | by Davy Andrews [Updating the 2023 Draft Prospect Rankings]( As the NCAA baseball season gets underway, so too does this year's Prospect Week, starting with an update to the 2023 draft rankings. | by Eric Longenhagen [Michael Wacha and the Padres Swap Risks, Contractually Speaking]( Club options, player options, incentives... Wacha's new deal with San Diego has it all. | by Ben Clemens [Padres Bet There's Magic in This Mike: He Ain't an Ace, but Hey, He's All Right]( Sometimes you have to go back to the grocery store and get a no. 4 starter. | by Michael Baumann [As Pitchers and Catchers Report, Gary Sanchez Is Still Looking for Work]( Despite a solid season with the Twins after years of diminishing returns with the Yankees, the 30-year-old backstop hasn't found a fit. | by Jay Jaffe [An Age-Adjacent Arm Angle Addendum]( Another arm-angle article, another alliterative title. | by Alex Eisert 🎧 [EFFECTIVELY WILD EPISODE 1970: Season Preview Series: M]( and White Sox]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [How MLB pitch clock would impact famous baseball moment]( by David Schoenfield, ESPN [2023 PECOTA Comparables and the Ghosts Within]( by Steven Goldman, Baseball Prospectus ($) [2023 Spring Training survey: MLB insiders on the players, teams and stories to watch]( by Jayson Stark, The Athletic ($) [Tim McCarver, Catcher in the Hall of Fame as a Broadcaster, Dies at 81]( by Bruce Weber, New York Times [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2023 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](