2022 Playoff Odds Are Now Available!

The FanGraphs Newsletter, March 15, 2022 [READ IN BROWSER]( March 15, 2022 Hi there! The FanGraphs [2022 Playoff Odds]( which take into account the new 12-team playoff structure, are now available on the site. Our playoff odds continue to use a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems with pro-rated playing time via our depth charts. We then use that projection to calculate BaseRuns for each team’s batters and pitchers, which are used as inputs in the Pythagorean expectation formula to get a team’s winning percentage. Each team’s winning percentage is then used in a Monte Carlo simulation of the full 162 game schedule, which is run 20,000 times. You can find more information about our playoff odds [here](. Since play-in games have been eliminated and the exact playoff tiebreaker rules have yet to be announced, we’re using the existing playoff tiebreaker rules until there is further clarification. Even if the tiebreaker rules change, it won’t have much of an impact on any of the preseason projected playoff odds. We have also stopped generating the [Tie Scenario report]( for the 2022 season. As of today, the Dodgers have the highest probability to make the playoffs at 95.7%. [2022 Playoff Odds]( The Matt Olson Trade Baseball’s second stab at an offseason continues at a brisk pace with the biggest move yet this week, a blockbuster trade that sees the A’s send first baseman Matt Olson to the Braves in a five-player deal. Atlanta didn’t get off lightly, parting with outfielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers (who were Nos. 72 and 70, respectively, on our preseason Top 100 prospects list), and pitchers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes to whatever the heck they’re calling the stadium in Oakland this year. (We’ll have much more on those four prospects coming later from Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein in a separate post.) 👉 [Braves Acquire Matt Olson as Freeman Replacement in Blockbuster Swap]( by Dan Szymborski 👉 [Oakland's Prospect Snowball Grows with Matt Olson Trade]( Oakland adds four prospects, including two who rank in the overall Top 100. | by Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein 👉 [The Braves Extend Their New First Baseman]( Atlanta wasted no time in getting Matt Olson inked to a long-term deal. | by Dan Szymborski [The Brewers Got Their DH in Andrew McCutchen]( McCutchen should provide solid production for Milwaukee as they shore up their lineup. | by Jake Mailhot [After 2021 Near-Misses, Mariners, Reds Go Different Directions With Winker Trade]( Seattle bulks up to contend, Cincinnati slims down to shed payroll. | by Jay Jaffe [Four More Relievers Signed]( Sean Doolittle, Brad Hand, Ian Kennedy, and Chad Kuhl all have new teams as the frenetic post-lockout signing period continues. | by Ben Clemens [Cruz Passes on Contenders (For Now), Signs with Nats]( Nelson Cruz signs with the Nationals in a move that feels a bit temporary. | by Kevin Goldstein [Angels Bring Back Kurt Suzuki But Are Running Out of Options To Do More]( Suzuki remains the veteran backup but won't shift the team's disappointing trajectory. | by Dan Szymborski [The Yankees and Twins Exchange Big Names, But to What End?]( A strange trade augurs further moves and inscrutable strategies for two AL teams. | by Ben Clemens [An Assortment of Reliever Signings, Part One]( The White Sox, Nationals, Rockies and Phillies all bolstered their late-inning core. | by Luke Hooper [An Assortment of Reliever Signings, Part Two]( These four relievers are set to provide late-inning utility to their respective teams. | by Justin Choi [Twins Improve, Reds Take a Step Back as Sonny Gray Heads to Minnesota]( The Reds eviscerate their rotation to Minnesota's gain. | by Dan Szymborski [Blue Jays Add Potential to Back of Rotation in Yusei Kikuchi]( Toronto takes a gamble on Kikuchi's stuff and upside. | by Jake Mailhot [Mets Continue to Fortify Rotation, Trade for Chris Bassitt]( Damn the Cohen Balance Tax, full speed ahead. | by Jay Jaffe The Mug in white! [ORDER HERE]( [Atlantic League alters DH rule, allows steal of 1B]( via ESPN [Explaining the Rays' pursuit of Freddie Freeman]( by Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic ($) [Why Move Mike Trout Off CF? Let's Look at the Numbers]( by Mark Simon, Sports Info Solutions [Lance McCullers Found A New Way to McCullers]( by Brian Menéndez, Baseball Prospectus ($) [Top 30 Shortstops for 2022 Fantasy Baseball]( by Scott Chu, Pitcher List [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2022 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](