MLB's Competitive Balance Tax Is Anything But

The FanGraphs Newsletter, March 8, 2022 [READ IN BROWSER]( March 8, 2022 Hi there! Today we lead with some insight into MLB's competitive balance tax. MLB’s argument is that the CBT is needed to increase competitive balance. Yet there’s very little evidence that it actually has increased competitive balance, and if anything, teams are farther apart since the CBT was implemented, not closer together. From 1984 to 2001, leaving out shortened seasons, the standard deviation of winning percentage was about 67 points. From 2002, the first year of MLB’s modern CBT, to ’21 (excluding the shortened 2020 season), that increases to 74 points; since the start of 2016, when salaries have been static, it’s 80 points. Having more money, naturally, is better than having less money, but there’s a limited relationship between winning and total salary. Again, going back to 1984: Only about 14% of the variance of team winning percentage has been explained by the variance in team payroll. Now, 14% isn’t zero, but you want there to be some relationship; it would be odd if there were absolutely no relation. 👉 [READ MORE]( by Dan Szymborski We’re Asking for Your Help as We Navigate the Lockout Here we are again. Just two years after a global pandemic led to the cancellation of part of spring training and a delayed Opening Day, the lockout has resulted in the loss of more baseball. This time around, there are no PPP loans to help soften the blow. FanGraphs is in slightly better financial shape than we were in 2020 due to all of our [Member]( support, but that doesn’t change the fact that the lockout is already starting to put the site at risk. Lost revenue is lost revenue, and the longer this goes on, the worse shape we’ll be in. It took us all of last year to climb out of the financial hole the pandemic put us in, and now we’re being dragged back into that uncertainty. So for the second time in three years, we’re asking for your assistance to keep FanGraphs, the baseball resource that you’ve come to rely on, alive and well. If you’re already a Member, thank you so much for your support. We’re excited to continue to bring you great analysis and new site features, and hope you will renew your Membership when the time comes. Now and in the future, you make FanGraphs possible. If you aren’t a Member and you value what we do, now is the time to up and help ensure that we’re here for you when baseball returns. Better yet, become an [Ad-Free Member]( You won’t regret it. It’s the best way to both experience the site and sustain its future. [HELP US OUT]( [Making the Case for Bat Speed]( An argument for why it should be prioritized over bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions. | by Justin Choi [Amid an Oblong Journey, Twins Prospect Matt Wallner Aims For Home]( The power-hitting Minnesota native is on the rise after circumstances led him down south. | by David Laurila [Minnesota Twins Top 39 Prospects]( The top of this system is down due to a combination of graduations and injuries. | by Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin [Even With Holdouts, Path to New CBA Runs Through Competitive Balance Tax]( Four of the 30 owners reportedly wouldn't even agree to raise the tax threshold in MLB's last pre-deadline offer. | by Jay Jaffe [Mid-Tier Hitting Prospects I Like in 2022]( Just in time for (two weeks after) Prospect Week, my list of some hitters outside the Top 100 who I nonetheless think could turn into something exciting. | by Ben Clemens [Summation of 2021 Projection Accuracy]( by Jeff Zimmerman [Welcome to Splitsville]( by Nicklaus Gaut The Mug in white! [ORDER HERE]( [MLB, Apple link up for "Friday Night Baseball"]( by John Ourand, Sports Business Journal [Why Druw Jones could be the best MLB draft prospect since Bryce Harper]( by Kiley McDaniel, ESPN [The Athletic’s ’30-Team Era’ MLB Franchise Rankings: How each club stacks up since 1998]( by Stephen J. Nesbitt, The Athletic ($) [Statcast Lab: Throw Accuracy and Frequency on SB attempts of 2B]( by TangoTiger [How to Quantify Breakout Hitters]( by Jeremy Siegel, Pitcher List [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2022 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](