A Rotation in the Red

Cincinnati's rotation woes, the top prospect who isn't, and more. [View this email in your browser]( A Rotation in the Red Last year, the Reds became [the first pitching staff in modern history]( to finish with a negative WAR. (Including a [truly terrible bullpen]( though that's a subject for another day.) Bad as they were, though, there were a few bright spots—perhaps most notably [Anthony DeSclafani]( who will now be missing his first start of the spring due to "tenderness" in his elbow. The team has stressed that it's not cause for alarm, but it's still not a particularly inspiring note for a guy who missed the first two months of last season with injuries. Especially given the fact that success from DeSclafani this year could be one of the best outcomes possible for a Reds rotation looking to repeat the ignominy of last season. The team's offseason moves reveal a different strategy from last year, but not one that should have meaningfully different results. Instead of skewing young, as they did last year with 27-year-old [Tim Adleman]( as their most senior rotation member, this season will be anchored by some veterans—[Bronson Arroyo]( is back and [Scott Feldman]( has been added. Each has pitched as many career innings on their own as the five other guys in the mix for a rotation spot have combined. The pair add seniority, but not much in the guaranteed productivity, and the rotation is otherwise fundamentally the same from last year's disaster. A strong performance from DeSclafani, then, is likely the best chance for the rotation to escape last year's lows. As Corinne Landrey analyzed at the end of last season, he managed to [put together some of the pieces for success]( in 2016. He was still plagued by troubles with lefties, and he didn't quite replicate the high points of his 2015, when a stretch of unfortunate circumstance in the second half hid some fantastic peripherals: one of baseball's top ten strikeout-to-walk ratios got covered by a BABIP over .350 and a HR/FB over 12%. But his curveball and his success against righties showed that hope for a breakout year isn't necessarily misplaced just yet—which is good for the Reds, as hope for a DeSclafani breakout is perhaps their best hope of a collective rotation being at least somewhat adequate this year. [FanGraphs produces over 400 articles each month, in addition to our ever-growing database of stats and graphs. Support our efforts today!]( Coming Soon: [FanGraphs on Tour with PitchTalks This Year!]( FanGraphs is teaming up with PitchTalks for another season's worth of events—you'll be able to catch the gang this year in Boston, Brooklyn, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Kansas City, D.C., St. Louis, and beyond! Check the schedule now and [stay tuned]( for info on how to buy tickets. [Subscribe to our Podcasts!]( Catch up on past newsletters or pass along to a friend [here](. Data Visualization of the Day: [The Top Prospect Who Technically Isn't]( Five years after being drafted, [Byron Buxton]( has lost some of his luster alongside his prospect eligibility, and Neil Weinberg analyzes how and why on FanGraphs today. Excerpt: ["Oral Examination—Testing the Stories of 'The Glory of Their Times'"]( by Shane Tourtellotte "This is the risk of oral histories. The interviewer has to let his subjects speak, and picking at their stories is a sure way of drying them up. The reader values these participants and their words, and is thus inclined to take their word for it." [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2017 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312 Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](