Daily Briefing: May 4, 2021

You can never have too much pitching [READ IN BROWSER]( By Jeffrey Bellone - May 4, 2021 🟢 NEVER TOO MUCH PITCHING When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed [Trevor Bauer]( for $102 million this offseason, it felt like the rich were using their riches to get richer. Already stacked with a rotation that included Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urías, as well as David Price, Tony Gonsolin, and Trevor May, the addition of Bauer felt like almost too much for one staff. How would all of these guys find innings? Well, less than 45 days into the season, the Dodgers are already digging into their depth as they learned the terrible news yesterday that Trevor May will require Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow and is lost for the season. Besides the unfortunate news for May - a 23-year-old with a 100-plus MPH sinker that he was starting to learn how to deploy - it means the Dodgers will need to get creative to fill out their rotation, as both Gonsolin (four weeks away from being stretched out after battling shoulder inflammation) and Price (out until June with a hamstring injury) aren't close to returning. While the Dodgers could get creative in skipping a fifth starter by taking advantage of their off days, it could also mean Bauer will get the [opportunity]( he has craved to pitch on three days' rest. 🟢 MORE INJURIES As if the May news wasn't bad enough for people who like to watch really good baseball players, we learned yesterday that White Sox center fielder Luis Robert will not be able to resume baseball activities for 12-16 weeks due to a Grade 3 strain of his right hip flexor. The 23-year-old, who won a Gold Glove Award and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting last season, was off to a strong start before his injury, batting .316/.359/.462 (136 wRC+). In terms of impacting playoff odds, Robert is [one of the most irreplaceable players]( according to ZiPS. Meanwhile, Anthony Rendon was pulled from Monday's game after fouling a pitch off his kneecap; Bryce Harper is out a few days with a sore left wrist; and Shohei Ohtani was scratched from his scheduled start after taking a ball off his right elbow while batting on Sunday (although, that didn't keep him from going 2-4 with a double and a home run at the plate). ⚫️ WHAT ELSE HAPPENED? ▫️ Minor League Baseball finally returns to action today, 588 days after the last minor league game was played before the 2020 season was cancelled due to the pandemic. Under the new structure, there will be four affiliate levels (Triple-A, Double-A, High-A, Low-A) for each major league team, in addition to a rookie level team hosted at each spring training complex). ▫️ The New York Mets fired their hitting coach Chili Davis and his assistant Tom Slater, replacing them with Hugh Quattlebaum and Kevin Howard. While the Mets were hitting close to league average overall (96 wRC+), they struggled with runners in scoring position and ranked dead last in runs scored per game. This newsletter is made possible due to the generous support of our members. If you are reading this email or use FanGraphs in your daily baseball routine, please consider supporting us. [BECOME A FANGRAPHS MEMBER]( YESTERDAY'S MOST PIVOTAL PLAY Signed to a one-year deal in the offseason, [Eddie Rosario]( hasn't quite found his stroke in the early going for Cleveland (80 wRC+); but he found it last night, smacking a three-run home run in the top of the seventh inning to give his new team a 6-3 lead that they would later build on to secure an 8-6 victory over the Royals on Monday. SCORES (HOME TEAMS IN CAPS) Cleveland 8 ROYALS 6 Rays 7 ANGELS 3 PHILLIES 4 Brewers 3 CARDINALS 6 Mets 5 TWINS 6 Rangers 5 PADRES 2 Pirates 0 ATHLETICS 5 Blue Jays 4 Orioles 5 MARINERS 3 Track every game using our [LIVE SCOREBOARD](. [A Simple Fix for Barrels in 2021]( by [Alex Chamberlain]( Thanks to the ball being bouncier, “hard” hits are coming more cheaply than ever — yet the higher seams, causing more drag, are suppressing the efficacy of these “hard” hits. Predictably, production specifically on barrels has taken a hit, too, trailing prior Statcast-era seasons [by anywhere from 50 to 150 points of wOBAcon](. I propose a simple, temporary fix: increase the minimum EV threshold, and all other dynamic calculations therein, just one mile per hour, from 97.5 mph to 98.5 mph: if EV < 98.5 mph, then barrel = no if LA > 25.5° and LA < 30.5°, then barrel = yes if LA < 25.5° and (25.5 – LA) < (EV – 98.5), then barrel = yes if LA > 30.5° and ((LA – 30.5) * 2) < ((EV – 98.5) * 3), then barrel = yes if EV > 98.5 mph but none of these apply, then barrel = no [READ MORE ]( 📝 RECENTLY PUBLISHED [Gerrit Cole Has Made a Tweak]( by Carmen Ciardiello [Enhancing Prospect Outlooks Using Scouting Report Text]( by Chris Russo [Front Office Conference Call Agendas: American League]( by Kevin Goldstein [Hitter xwOBA Overperformers]( by Mike Podhorzer [Are They Real?]( by Paul Sporer [Throwing Heat Week 5]( by Michael Simione [Kenta Maeda Has Made a Lot of Mistakes]( by Luke Hooper [A Healthier Version of Buster Posey is Swinging a Hot Bat]( by Jay Jaffe [FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 3-9]( by Jake Maihot [Roto Riteup: May 4, 2021]( by Justin Mason [Bullpen Report: May 4, 2021]( by Jason Martinez 🔑 SITE TIP MINOR LEAUGE STATS: With the minor league season kicking off this week, you can track how your favorite prospects are doing using the [Minor League Leaderboards](. Use the drop-downs to filter on league type (i.e. AAA or AA), minor league team, or MLB organization. 🎮 FANGRAPHS GAMING Each week, Paul Sporer hosts a salary-capped tournament in Out of the Park Baseball 22 appropriately dubbed Sporer’s Sandlot. Tonight at 5:30 PM PT/8:30 PM ET, Paul and Ben Clemens will each build teams to enter it and compete, live on Twitch. Join us on the FanGraphs homepage or [the FanGraphs Live Twitch channel](. 🔝 TOP PERFORMERS Some additional performances not noted above. 🔺 KENTA MAEDA (SP/MIN): 5.1 IP, 8 SO (10 swinging strikes), 2 BB, 2 H and 2 ER. 🔺 VINCE VELASQUEZ (SP/PHI): 6.0 IP, 6 SO (18 swinging strikes), 2 BB, 4 H and 1 ER. 🔺 TOM MURPHY (C/SEA): 1-2 (1 HR, 1 BB, 3 RBI) 🔺 JOSH NAYLOR (RF/CLE): 2-4 (1 HR, 1 BB, 3 RBI) Check out our [Live Daily Leaderboards]( to track each day's top performers in real-time. ⚾️ ROSTER REPORT ACTIVATED FROM INJURED LIST - Diamondbacks 1B Christian Walker, Diamondbacks OF Tim Locastro, Cubs OF Joc Pederson, Brewers OF Lorenzo Cain, Brewers OF Christian Yelich, Pirates RP Michael Feliz were all activated from the 10-Day IL. - Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright was activated from the COVID-19 IL. PLACED ON INJURED LIST - Rockies RP Carlos Estévez and Mets 3B J.D. Davis were placed on the 10-Day IL. - Royals SP Daniel Tillo was placed on the 60-Day IL. TRANSACTIONS - Dodgers RP Mike Kickham was designated for assigment. - Former Mariners RP Brandon Brennan was claimed off waivers by the Red Sox. - Former Brewers RP Phil Bickford was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. For the latest roster information, please visit our [RosterResource]( pages. [Freddy Peralta is showing he's a starter]( by Kenny Kelly, Beyond the Box Score: "In 28 innings, the righty has struck out 45 batters including 7 in 6 innings against the Dodgers in his most recent start. Among qualified starters, Peralta ranks fourth in strikeout percentage with a 40.2 mark, sandwiched between Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. 2020 was a high-water mark for Peralta’s strikeout rate at 37.6 as he hovered around 30 percent in his first two years in the majors." [Tony La Russa, under scrutiny, justified some of his critics' skepticism in April]( by Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic ($): "While some players already are frustrated with him, many others offer little complaint, sources say. A measure of unrest is not unusual in a major-league clubhouse; few managers, at any given moment, enjoy the support of their entire 26-man roster. And the biggest initial concern with La Russa — that, at 76, he would be unable to relate to the “Let the Kids Play” generation — does not appear to be his biggest problem." 📚 MORE READS: [Inside Minor League Baseball's experimental rules: Oversize bases, robot umps and moving the mound]( by Jesse Rogers, ESPN [MLB Scouts Identify 28 Prospects Turning Heads Entering 2021 Minor League Season]( by Josh Norris, Baseball America ($) [A Look at the Early Season 90th Percentile Exit Velocity Leaderboards]( by Jeremy Siegel, Pitcher List [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2021 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. 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