Will Shohei Ohtani go 50-50? If so, when?

The FanGraphs Newsletter, September 6, 2024 [READ IN BROWSER]( September 6, 2024 There are a lot of great baseball storylines to keep tabs on this month. Aaron Judge is on yet another historic tear. Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals are crashing the playoff party. The Brewers and Guardians are showing the league that you overlook the Central divisions at your own peril. It all pales in comparison to Shohei Ohtani’s pursuit of 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases. The 50-50 club doesn’t have any members. Ohtani is alone in the 44-44 club, the highest current rung he’s attained, and it doesn’t look like anyone else will be joining him anytime soon. Ohtani himself probably won’t repeat this; this is a career high in steals by a mile, and don’t think it’s a coincidence that it’s happening in a season when he isn’t pitching. Next year, he might rein himself in more, but right now, we’re seeing what it looks like when a fast player decides that they really do want to steal all the bases they can. Of course, it helps that he’s also one of the most powerful hitters in the game – both to aim for the 50-50 target and because opposing pitchers walk him quite often. Will he do it? The sum probability of Ohtani hitting both totals is around 56%. The distribution of days where Ohtani might go 50-50 looks like this: [READ MORE]( [Matt Chapman Cashes In Early... or Late]( After settling for a short-term deal this spring, the slick-fielding third baseman has landed a much larger contract without the hassle of free agency. | by Jay Jaffe [Hopes and Skenes]( The mustachioed man with the power arm is returning the Pirates to relevance and providing Pittsburgh fans a reason to believe that better days are ahead. | by Matt Martell [Let's Act Like the White Sox Don't Exist]( What would happen if this year's White Sox had their stats wiped from the record? And which opponents would lose the most? | by Michael Baumann [Top of the Order: Matt Chapman and the Giants' Payroll Obligations]( Matt Chapman will be a Giant for six more years, affecting the team's payroll significantly. | by Jon Becker [Corbin Carroll Has Powered Up]( The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year struggled mightily over the season's first few months, as did the Diamondbacks, but his second-half tear has helped the team surge into a Wild Card spot. | by Jay Jaffe [The Closer You Stand, the Scarier Josh Smith Gets]( On Tuesday night, the Texas third baseman hurdled Tommy Kahnle, striking fear in the hearts of everyone in the immediate vicinity. | by Davy Andrews 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2213: (Get) Out of Left Field]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [Are we witnessing the best non-MVP season ever?]( by Mike Petriello, MLB [2024 MLB Awards Watch: MVP, Cy Young, ROY hit final stretch]( by Bradford Doolittle, ESPN ($) [Updated Tp 30s for every team]( via Baseball America ($) [Mets are employing winning formula of a playoff team]( by Joel Sherman, NY Post [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2024 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 3017 N Underwood StArlington, VA 22213 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](