A 95% Chance of Double-Digit Gains in 2023

Editor's note: Regular Empire Financial Daily readers will recognize our friend and colleague Marc Chaikin... Marc spent decades on Wall Street as a trader, stockbroker, analyst, and the head of the options department for a major brokerage firm. While on the Street, he developed computerized stock selection models and technical indicators that have become industry […] Not rendering correctly? View this e-mail as a web page [here](. [Empire Financial Daily] Editor's note: Regular Empire Financial Daily readers will recognize our friend and colleague Marc Chaikin... Marc spent decades on Wall Street as a trader, stockbroker, analyst, and the head of the options department for a major brokerage firm. While on the Street, he developed computerized stock selection models and technical indicators that have become industry standards. He also pioneered the first real-time analytics workstation for portfolio managers and stock traders. Marc went on to found our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, where he uses his Power Gauge system to deliver analytics to everyday investors and traders. And in today's essay, Marc explains how one indicator points to the possibility of big gains through the rest of the year... --------------------------------------------------------------- A 95% Chance of Double-Digit Gains in 2023 By Marc Chaikin --------------------------------------------------------------- [Bestseller: Our Income Trading Strategy]( Enrique Abeyta has agreed to demonstrate the most winning trading strategy of his career, using real money. He'll choose a stock... Put 60 seconds on the clock... And ask a 37-year-old man to collect $368 – instantly – without buying a single share upfront. [You can watch the trade right here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Folks, we've endured a wild month... Stocks started March with a pullback from their early February high. And before long, the [banking crisis]( made everything worse. The S&P 500 Index fell nearly 5% in a single week. So I get why many people might still be feeling startled. But over time, the market gives us strong historical data. As investors, we can't deny that data. And today, I'm once again seeing a nearly indisputable signal in the market... Going all the way back to 1950, this signal has only led to losses for the S&P 500 over the next year on two occasions. And each of those times, the return was barely negative. Through 37 samples dating back 73 years, this indicator has a 95% positive rate. Even better, as I'll show you today, this indicator gives us an idea what to expect from the S&P 500 for the rest of this year. And as investors, you're not going to believe it... --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Link: [New Vehicle Shocks EV Market]( The Wall Street Journal calls it "an American manufacturing triumph." – [Will this disrupt the entire $1.3 trillion EV boom]( --------------------------------------------------------------- I won't draw things out any longer... The indicator we're looking at today reveals that the market is capable of hitting an 18% total return this year. Seriously. And as I said, this indicator is correct 95% of the time. You see, this indicator is related to the S&P 500's lowest point in December. That low was 3,783.22 on December 28. You can see it on the following chart... Now, as you can also see in the chart, we've completed the first quarter of 2023. And despite all its twists and turns, the S&P 500 stayed above that December low. That's an incredibly powerful signal throughout history... According to Carson Investment Research, this signal has happened 37 times since 1950. In every case except two, the S&P 500 produced a positive return over the next year. The two exceptions were in 2011 and 2015. But the worst result was a 0.7% drop. This is where the data gets really interesting... The average one-year return after this signal is 18.6%. And the median return is 18.1%. In other words... one or two big winners aren't skewing the results. Now, I understand that this might feel like a contrarian statement right now. It seems like many folks are still busy preparing for the next collapse. But the data is clear... The market is recovering. The S&P 500 is up about 7% so far this year. [And as I detailed recently]( the Power Gauge just turned "bullish" on the benchmark index. Now, this huge historical signal is behind us... The market completed the first quarter of the year above its December low. History tells us that means big gains are possible through the rest of the year. And even if that doesn't happen, the downside should be relatively mild. That means our job is to find the best opportunities. I recommend you do the same. Regards, Marc Chaikin April 6, 2023 Editor's note: In a brand-new presentation, Marc is stepping forward to explain the one thing he believes investors need to do this year to be on the right side of history... and how his rarest indicator just flashed in a major way – one that has predicted the stock market's next move with a 100% success rate since 1950. [Get the full story here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Additionally, please note that the Empire Financial Research offices are closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. 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