Christmas Creep and Holiday YOLO Spending

Coming at you like a pumpkin spice latte ad that you see poolside in August, get ready for an onslaught of Christmas music this week... Last night, before I even got home from trick-or-treating, #MariahSZN was already trending on Twitter (TWTR), as holiday enthusiasts can't wait to start playing the 1994 hit "All I Want […] Not rendering correctly? View this e-mail as a web page [here](. [Empire Financial Daily] Christmas Creep and Holiday YOLO Spending By Berna Barshay Coming at you like a pumpkin spice latte ad that you see poolside in August, get ready for an onslaught of Christmas music this week... Last night, before I even got home from trick-or-treating, #MariahSZN was already trending on Twitter (TWTR), as holiday enthusiasts can't wait to start playing the 1994 hit "All I Want for Christmas Is You" nonstop for the next two months, much to the dismay of the "too soon" crowd... Source: someecards.com Meanwhile, over at coffee chain Starbucks (SBUX), it's already time for pumpkin spice to move over and make room for peppermint everything. Food bloggers report that the chain's holiday menu will launch this Thursday, November 4. Rumors say that a new "sugar cookie, almond milk latte" will be heading to your red cup imminently, according to reporting from food magazine Taste of Home. Meanwhile, it seems like some stores couldn't even wait until after Halloween to get into yuletide mode... On Saturday, the New York Times noted that the holidays were showing up extra early this year, deeming the phenomenon "Christmas creep"... The article noted... Retailers, including upscale boutiques and discount shops, have turned their stores into winter wonderlands weeks, even months, earlier than last year. Nordstrom (JWN) unveiled its displays of Balsam Hill artificial Christmas trees in most of its stores in early October, about one to two weeks earlier than last year. Bloomingdale's moved up its virtual holiday events (where you can learn to make charcuterie boards and other Instagram-ready tableaus) to late October rather than November as it did in 2020. Other retailers – such as home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW), luxury department store chain Neiman Marcus, and 99 Cents Only Stores – the Times noted were getting into the Christmas game early... So Christmas creep is hitting the high end, the low end... and everything in between. Retailers pushing Christmas in October prompt other businesses to start early, too. Even in places where Halloween is like a cottage industry... "I live in Salem, Mass., where the witch trials were," said Bridget Saunders, 20, an undergraduate at Salem State University. "Halloween is a huge ordeal." But when she walked out of her house last Tuesday, five days before Halloween, she saw that her landlord had skipped the holiday altogether and put up a fully decorated Christmas tree. "Couldn't he just have waited a few days?" she said. Clearly, a lot of the Christmas creep is a response to the constant messaging consumers have heard regarding the [clogged supply chain](... We've been repeatedly told to buy early or else risk being shut out. And people are taking that message to heart, for a good reason... Big Lots (BIG), another budget chain, put out Christmas lights and trees right after Labor Day. (Halloween goods were sold in July.) "Customers now know if they don't get out there and shop early, they might not get what they want," said Bruce Thorn, the company's chief executive. With permission, encouragement, and ample supplies available from retailers, people are installing community Christmas trees in Milwaukee in late October and [putting up trees in Louisville living rooms in mid-October](. Clearly, they didn't get this memo from the Christmas timing traditionalists... 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Save your seat by [clicking here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- While the trend to get an earlier jumpstart on every holiday is long-established, it seems to be on steroids this year... But there is more than just fear over potential out-of-stocks pushing people to kick off the holiday season even earlier than usual...  After a very scaled-down celebration of the holidays last year, people are making up for lost time. After a season of canceled holiday parties and Zoom (ZM) Christmas celebrations, people are revving up for an extra-special holiday season this year. Despite the inclination to jump past it and get straight to Christmas, Halloween looks like it was probably a blowout this year in terms of spending. The National Retail Federation ("NRF") estimated that American consumers would spend a record $10 billion on Halloween this year, a 25% jump from last year's pandemic-depressed holiday... Source: National Retail Federation The average consumer was expected to shell out $103 on costumes, candy, decorations, and greeting cards, up 11% from last year. The rest of the growth was expected to come from higher participation than last year... with 82% of households with children and 55% of households without children expected to go in on the festivities. These numbers are comparable to 2019 levels... so in short, Halloween was back – and bigger than ever. In my corner of the world, this was certainly the case. Last year, I had so much Halloween candy left untaken that we never even finished the leftovers. This year, I bought twice as much... and the little goblins completely cleaned me out. The kids seemed to want to go longer and more intensely on their candy quests this year... just one more sign of the nearly universal desire to make up for what was missed in 2020. At the intersection of ['you only live once spending' ('YOLO')]( and 'fear of missing out' ('FOMO') holiday celebrating, it's shaping up to be a record holiday season for retail... YOLO and FOMO are strong motivators on their own... Together, they may prove unstoppable, especially with a heavy assist from a strong stock market, soaring cryptocurrencies, and paper gains on homes – all of which combine to make an already-healthy consumer feel even more comfortable about parting with cash. The NRF came out with its holiday forecast last week... and it's expecting a record season. The NRF predicts holiday sales in November and December will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% versus 2020 and come in between $843 billion and $859 billion. Even at the low end of the range, holiday sales would set a record... and grow much more than the average 4.4% gain they have clocked over the past five years. While acknowledging the challenges related to the supply chain and labor availability, NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay thinks retailers planned appropriately and will have enough inventory to sell. And if consumers don't find exactly what they came for, they will spend anyway. Shay predicted, "One way or the other, they will shop, they will purchase, and they will find that item." Retailers will get another boost when the U.S. opens its borders fully on November 8 to vaccinated international tourists, who were mostly absent in holiday 2020. The NRF expects e-commerce sales to continue to outpace growth at brick-and-mortar locations, calling for 11% to 15% growth in holiday e-commerce. E-commerce should account for around 26% of holiday sales this year. Despite the incessant messaging about the very real supply chain problems plaguing retailers, many retail chains will be getting profits – not coal – for Christmas. Pessimism about how supply chain woes will impact holiday sales has nevertheless taken many retail stocks down in recent months. But because the pent-up demand for the holiday experience – and all the spending that goes with that – is real, holiday sales should come through. Thus, the market is setting up for some good holiday bargains in retail stocks. I'll share two of my favorite beaten-down retailers during my presentation at the MoneyShow virtual conference tomorrow at noon. It's free to attend, but you need to reserve your spot [here](. In the mailbag, readers react to Saks, and possibly Macy's (M) spinning off their online divisions...  Did you spend more, less, or the same on Halloween this year versus last year? Do you plan to celebrate the holidays earlier than usual... or spend more money? Do retailers displaying holiday goods prompt you to shop and decorate earlier, or do you tune out those cues? And is it too soon for Christmas music? Share your opinions in an e-mail to feedback@empirefinancialresearch.com. As for me, anyone who knows me knows that I never think it is a good time for the overplayed Mariah song... just another contrarian opinion from me. I'll take Bing Crosby and David Bowie's "Little Drummer Boy" over Mariah's trills and runs... no matter what month it is. "Hello, Jana Partners should ask [Amazon Founder and chairman] Jeff Bezos, the king of retail, why is he opening physical stores all over the place? Regards," – Fabian H. Berna comment: Fabian, exactly! I actually had this comment in my initial draft of the essay but cut it out because I was running long. You are spot-on! "Hi Berna, Both my wife and I are omnichannel shoppers. Being able to either pick up or return an item purchased online is very important. I love the time it saves. One detail I wish more stores would have available is to have the location of the item texted to you. Home Depot (HD) has this feature, and I will tell you that I favor Home Depot over Lowe's (LOW) on many items." – John B. Berna comment: I agree this is a great feature, and I have used this many times on Home Depot online, as well as at Target (TGT), which has something similar. "Dear Berna, Firstly, I prefer to do most of my buying in-store, rather than online. But that's because of my upbringing, where making special purchases was somewhat of a special event. "Even though I've rarely been to Macy's stores, I have a special bond with them since my niece was named for the company. But the idea of spinning out half the business to reward some financial engineering geeks is BS (Beyond Stupid). I've had over 35 years as a professional accountant and investor, and I can't find the sanity for this type of financial engineering. "I still find it ridiculous when companies propose changing their names. Take a look at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)... Even though they no longer produce the shirts that were the original business of the company, the company itself refuses to change its name (so far). And I think the company will still have that name on the day Warren Buffett finally retires. But Facebook (FB) decided to change its name this week. I think they chose the wrong new name, though; they should have chosen Free Speech Died Here. "I didn't mean to rant this long, but I cast my vote against the financial engineers. Sincerely," Kevin B. Berna comment: Kevin, I agree entirely with you about the financial engineers! And some of these corporate name changes are indeed silly! Regards, Berna Barshay November 1, 2021 If someone forwarded you this e-mail and you would like to be added to my e-mail list to receive e-mails like this every weekday, simply [sign up here](. © 2021 Empire Financial Research. All rights reserved. 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