Guideposts: Terminating the Black Republican Taboo

You are receiving this email because you signed up to receive our free e-letter Gilder's Guideposts, or you purchased a product or service from its publisher, Eagle Financial Publications. [Gilder Guideposts] [Technology Report]( [Tech Report PRO]( [Moonshots]( [Private Reserve]( Guideposts: Terminating the Black Republican Taboo by George Gilder and Richard Vigilante 05/24/2023 SPONSORED CONTENT [Gold explodes past $2,000, here's what's next]( After what feels like nearly a decade of disappointing returns, gold is entering a major bull market. You can get started today for less than $10. [Click here for full details.]( Generally, politics as a horse race bores us, though we are bored by neither horses nor races. Yet Sen. Tim Scott’s entry to the presidential race is interesting, mostly for what everyone knows but so far no one is saying out loud. Republicans should support Tim Scott for President because he is black. If Sen. Scott were black and liberal, or black and a Democrat, or black and stupid, or black and inarticulate, then they shouldn’t support him. But since Sen. Scott is Republican, conservative, articulate, smart, and all those things in a very traditional, optimistic, Reagan Republican way, and also black, Republicans should support him. The Republican Party nominating a black American for President would cure, overnight and permanently, the most destructive inefficiency in American politics. Political markets, like economic markets, work reasonably well because both have strong but imperfect tendencies to efficiency. Victorious candidates, like victorious products or victorious companies, broadly reflect the preferences of their respective markets. None of these markets, however, are perfectly efficient. In a metaphor favored by the late Jude Wanniski, in any given year voters may long for chicken. Because political markets are only imperfectly efficient, chicken may not make it to the menu. If instead, the partly efficient market offers turkey and tofu, voters will likely elect the turkey if somewhat grudgingly. It is popular today to blame the extremism of American politics on the inefficiencies of the primary system, which tends to narrow our choices on divisive issues to the opposing preferences of a minority of vocal voters.  On abortion for instance, Democrats who want to split open babies’ skulls as they try to sneak from the womb and Republicans who, even to save those babies, will make no concessions on rape or incest, write the menu. The most destructive inefficiency in American politics, however, long predates the current primary system: the unwillingness of nearly 80% of black Americans to even consider voting Republican. Notwithstanding a bit of slippage thanks to Trump, this remains true despite the large number of black voters whose issue preferences run closer to the Republicans than Democrats. The result is a profound market inefficiency. It is, in fact, a taboo. A taboo is not a rational choice because it is not a choice at all. It is the removal of choice. We don’t say, “Oh I don’t think I will eat human flesh today, there are so many better options.” We don’t consider it at all. It doesn’t make it to the menu. (We know; please forgive us!) For nearly 80% of black Americans, voting Republican does not make it to the menu. Tim Scott would at least put it on the menu for a majority of black voters. He might even win a majority of black voters—with implications for decades to come. [Learn how to predict the future of technology with our “paradigms”]( Technology is always evolving. Nobody knows what direction it might go until it’s already here. But what if you had a roadmap that has accurately predicted the future of technology for more than 40 years? My flagship service Technology Report has been guiding my subscribers through the technology market for years now. If you want to learn more about investing in technology companies, [click here now.]( Decades, precisely because taboos are not experienced as rational choices. They disappear almost the moment they are first violated. If that South American rugby team ever has the misfortune to crash land in the Andes again, they will not likely postpone the inevitable. For most black Americans, the first time they vote Republican the taboo will disappear forever, profoundly disrupting American politics. White church-going Americans already overwhelmingly vote Republican. They are increasingly joined by church-going Hispanics. Churchgoers will find themselves all but unanimously voting for the Republican party once they are joined by church-going blacks. (Observant Jews already are mostly there.) Realignment would take place not only around the obvious social issues but economic issues with profound social implications. Essentially all white American politicians have given up on fixing welfare, which means essentially all of them have given up on black Americans in poverty. The last prominent white politician to attempt welfare reform was also the one dubbed “the first black president,” Bill Clinton, not coincidently the most conservative Democrat president of the 20th century. Tim Scott speaks on this issue more forcefully than any politician in our lifetimes, not excluding Reagan. Reagan ran on “morning in America.” Scott, far more explicit, is basing his bid on the choices between “victory and victimhood,” “grievance or greatness.” Offering an entrepreneurial upside surprise to all Americans, a GOP nomination for Scott could transform American politics for a century to come. [What To Do With Your Trades Now]( Would you rather read the news, or get a jump start on the markets by predicting trends up to 72 hours ahead with up to 87.4% proven accuracy? The future is here, and it wants a piece. [Join the Training on A.I. 101 Live Session for Free.]( *** Notable for Tech Investors China refuses to buy advanced chips from the U.S., outraging U.S lawmakers who banned U.S. from selling advanced chips to China [( Duh. In breaking news, leading semiconductor industry survey says world fails to end [( The Q1 2023 issue of Semiconductor Manufacturing reports—consistent with current guidance from most of the industry—that the record-breaking slump appears to be bottoming, with sales promising to rebound by 2H 2023. It includes a nice chart of inventory vs. fab utilization. ALD/CVD Precursors – Better Times Ahead [( Another leading indicator of an industry rebound comes from recovering orders for semiconductor “precursor” materials, high-purity gas or liquid materials for semiconductor manufacturing processes, such as chemical vapor deposition and atomic layer deposition.  Intel Foundry Services get competitive boost from newly announced collaboration with Arm [ Intel Foundry Services, which currently commands less than 1% of the outsourced chip manufacturing market dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung, will benefit from Arm creating optimized processes for Intel to use when manufacturing chips based on Arm designs. Micron adopts EUV in breakthrough for memory [( Extreme ultraviolet lithography, which has made possible the most advanced logic chips in the world, manufactured in so-called 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm processes, has heretofore not played a role in DRAM memory chips which have employed less demanding processes. Now Micron is bringing EUV to enable its latest and most sophisticated memory devices WANT TO MAKE MONEY IN TECH? [Subscribe to the Gilder Technology Report]( by George Gilder, the tech investor’s most prescient guide for more than three decades. P.S. Come join George Gilder and other Eagle colleagues on an incredible cruise! We set sail on Dec. 4 for 16 days, embarking on a memorable journey that combines fascinating history, vibrant culture and picturesque scenery. Enjoy seminars on the days we are cruising from one destination to another, as well as dinners with members of the Eagle team. Just some of the places we’ll visit are Mexico, Belize, Panama, Ecuador and more! [Click here]( now for all the details. Sincerely, [The Editors] George Gilder, Richard Vigilante, Steve Waite, and John Schroeter Editors, Gilder's Guideposts, Technology Report, Technology Report Pro, Moonshots, and Private Reserve About George Gilder: [George Gilder]George Gilder is the most knowledgeable man in America when it comes to the future of technology and its impact on our lives. He’s an established investor, bestselling author, and economist with an uncanny ability to foresee how new breakthroughs will play out, years in advance. George and his team are the editors of Gilder Technology Report, Gilder Technology Report Pro, Moonshots and Private Reserve. To ensure future delivery of Eagle Financial Publications emails please add financial@info2.eaglefinancialpublications.com to your address book or contact list. View this email in your [web browser](. This email was sent to {EMAIL} because you are subscribed to George Gilder's Guideposts. To unsubscribe please click [here](. 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