False Singularity of AI

You are receiving this email because you signed up to receive our free e-letter Gilder's Guideposts, or you purchased a product or service from its publisher, Eagle Financial Publications. [Gilder Guideposts] [Technology Report]( [Tech Report PRO]( [Moonshots]( [Private Reserve]( False Singularity of AI by George Gilder 05/29/2024 SPONSORED CONTENT [The Next Nvidia?]( Wall Street legend has just uncovered one tiny Maryland company that could become the next Nvidia. Few in the media are talking about this story yet... but in the next 6 months that's all they'll talk about. [Go here now for this breaking story.]( From stones to bronze to iron and aluminum, we trace our human saga through signature substances. Now engulfing the world is what is widely deemed a climax to the story: a 20th century “age of silicon.” While claiming that we have infused our systems with a nimbus of mind, we warn the world of an age of runaway conscious machines, of generative or degenerative “artificial intelligence (AI).” We proclaim a new Genesis—or deGenesis—of AI creation and Armageddon myths. Recognizing that processing, mapping, and weighing links in huge databases, AI systems can solve intellectual problems that are difficult or impossible for unaided humans, Google CEO Sundar Pichai declares that “AI is more profound than fire or electricity.” Hey, AI is hot stuff, a terrific new search engine that conceals its sources! “Look Ma, no sources!” Google likes that. It’s a breakthrough user interface that adapts you to political correctitude, automagically! Woke bureaucrats love that. It’s an ingenious way to synthesize and summarize, and best of all to plagiarize without leaving tracks! “Let no one else’s work evade your eyes,” in the Tom Lehrer lyrics, but AI is better than that, as you don’t have to sprain your eyes, which looks shifty. Best of all, it is never wrong! Because it knows right is an average—a probabilistic pattern matching mix—refined by endless “training parameters” which can be relied upon because they are politically correct and as myriad as the money supply! And all is charmingly retro! It dependably tells you what used to be right, on average. Sure, we understand that the mean or median probabilities of the past may not be good enough for you. AI systems correlate randomness with “temperature.” Low temperature accuracy is boring. In AI, low temperature means just the accurate average. ChatGPT knows that. But you’re obviously a risktaker. You want a high-temperature setting with lots of randomness, off the wall. You want originality, creativity, inventiveness, even it it’s wrong. No sweat! ChatGPT simulates all that good stuff by injections of randomness gauged by temperature. High temperature AI is the source of the surprising and amazing output of AI. The cost of this high temperature creativity, however, is what the industry terms “hallucination.” [Millionaires Will Be Minted OVERNIGHT]( Legendary tech futurist who predicted the rise of Amazon, Netflix, and Apple YEARS in advance now says: “The biggest, most profitable technological advances in the future will ALL stem from this single breakthrough. Millionaires will be minted overnight.” [He’s revealing EVERYTHING here.]( Last week, I visited Caltech for the 90th birthday celebration of Carver Mead, a titan of the silicon age and the internet age, and a key figure in dozens of companies, beginning with Fairchild and Intel. Mead is a key source of any wisdom we provide in our newsletters and guideposts. Today, Carver continues his creative work during long hours in his lab at Caltech researching the still-unsolved conundrums of superconductivity with colleague Jamil Tahir-Kheli. At Carver’s party, I encountered one of his former students Lloyd Watts, whom I had followed as the founder of Audience Inc., a pioneer of hearing technology now owned by Knowles corporation. A master of neuroscience, Dr. Watts now has a startup called Neocortix, aimed to solve the “hallucination problem.” Watts is a genius and I wish him luck. But hallucination is at the heart of artificial intelligence. It’s why giant companies, governments, and bureaucrats love it. What is political correctness and the vision of a “singular intelligence” with all the “right” answers but hallucination? Don’t get me wrong. I admire the accomplishments in the field. Yes, the new AI is the latest computer platform, extending the silicon age, and it will improve a lot as we understand its limitations. Its sponsors’ strategy is always to point you to future advances and adjustments. If you have reservations about today’s products, the industry assures you it is busy fixing them all. The next turbo release, even Open AI chief Sam Altman declared, will be better on all fronts. Trillions of parameters, imagine that! You can’t? Get help from your AI assistant, to whom trillions are trivial. Wait for Google’s Mind and Bard and Gemini as they get ever broader and deeper, mix Shakespeare with Einstein and throw in a few bytes of high temperature Feynman and low temperature Torah (not to disparage the wisdom in the Koran and its religion of peace!). Can’t beat that! But Sundar, get real. Without fire, there would be no Sundar and no cities, and without electricity no computer, no Google or telephone or horseless Airbus, no inkling of AI. [Stock Watchlist Now Available [Live]]( If you want to trade smarter (not harder) and be prepared for this week's markets, then you're not going to want to miss out on this. We'll show you soon - LIVE - what [stocks & commodities may be about to explode]( in the next few days and how we can help you conquer volatility by avoiding losses. You need to be ready for any market changes, and nothing is more rewarding to us than knowing we helped you avoid potential losses. [Get in the room now]( Our computing machines deceive us by superficial similarities between creativity and randomness, between invention and entropy. Contrary to the hype, James Watt and William Shakespeare and Charles Babbage and Thomas Edison and Suji Nakamura (inventor of blue and white light emitting diodes, or LEDs) were not random number generators. Nor were Google Founders Larry Page and Sergei Brin. They did not seek “high temperatures”; they sought right answers by falsifiable experiments. Creativity resembles randomness only in its statistical signature. To determine if it is real, you have to prove it, test it. The mind and the creativity remain ours. It may be partly concealed or transmogrified by the photomasks and reticles of our silicon masquerade. Proclaiming ourselves on a mountain top—the pinnacle of human achievement, envisioning apocalyptic epiphanies of man-made new mind—we are engulfed by machines that obscure our real future behind their telecom clouds. We are in danger of being blinded to our real path ahead, our beckoning Graphene Moment. Graphene is a two-dimensional form of diamond. It is a scintillating jewel one atom deep, so thin as to be almost invisible. But it is so strong you could stand upon it and so flexible you could bounce on it like a trampoline. There suspended above the world, as if dancing on air in a spaceship, you might see graphene as a substance to signify a new technological epoch. We write about it constantly in all our newsletters. It offers the largest opportunities in the history of technology. It will make AI as widely distributed as the human minds it will serve as a tool. By enabling not a singularity, but a multiplicity of cognitive aids, the graphene moment can transform AI into RI (real intelligence). Watch this space. Sincerely, [The Editors] George Gilder, Richard Vigilante, Steve Waite, and John Schroeter Editors, Gilder's Guideposts, Technology Report, Technology Report Pro, Moonshots, and Private Reserve About George Gilder: [George Gilder]George Gilder is the most knowledgeable man in America when it comes to the future of technology and its impact on our lives. He’s an established investor, bestselling author, and economist with an uncanny ability to foresee how new breakthroughs will play out, years in advance. George and his team are the editors of Gilder Technology Report, Gilder Technology Report Pro, Moonshots and Private Reserve. 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