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[Protect Your Budget with a Home Warranty]( …and Spotify’s “Car Thing” becomes a real thing Disclosures   Blasting Billie Eilish on the Car Thing [Jose Luis Pelaez Inc. / Digital Vision via Getty Images]   Yesterday’s Market Moves   Dow Jones 33,597 (-1.42%) S&P 500 4,305 (-1.01%) Nasdaq 13,382 (-1.23%) Bitcoin $37,932 (-2.46%) Dow Jones 33,597 (-1.42%) S&P 500 4,305 (-1.01%) Nasdaq 13,382 (-1.23%) Bitcoin $37,932 (-2.46%) Hey Snackers, Not our usual intro: the world’s anxious over growing conflict and loss of life in Eastern Europe after Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine reached a new high. Yesterday, President Biden said Russia violated international law by declaring independence for separatist-held areas of Ukraine. The wider market slipped into correction territory as world leaders began imposing economic sanctions on Russia. Oil prices hit a seven-year high after Germany halted a key gas pipeline in response to Russia’s aggression. Bitcoin and other cryptos plunged as investors abandoned riskier assets. Tense How the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect markets — short and long term Stocks are down — what's new?... ICYMI: stocks have been falling all year as investors worry about inflation and the Fed’s coming interest-rate hikes. This month, there's a new concern: Russia's increasing aggression toward Ukraine. Refresher: - 1991: Ukraine gained independence from Russia when the Soviet Union fell, but Russia has never fully pulled back its influence there (see: 2014 annexation of Crimea). - Late January: Russia stationed 100K+ troops near its border with Ukraine, fueling invasion fears among Western leaders. - Monday: Russian President Putin recognized the independence of two separatist regions in Ukraine (see: this brutal exchange) and ordered Russian troops to enter. - Yesterday: President Biden said he viewed Russia's move into Ukraine as the beginning of an invasion, and announced the first wave of new US sanctions to cut off Russia from Western financing. Earlier, the EU agreed to ban the purchase of Russian government bonds. - Also yesterday: Germany halted the key Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which carries gas from Russia to Germany (oil exports = 30% of Russia's economy). The short-term effect on stocks... The S&P 500 index is down 5% for the month, as Russia-Ukraine tensions add to what’s already hurting markets: - Uncertainty: While some uncertainty is always a given, high turmoil is usually bad for markets. Investors tend to retreat to "safe-haven assets" like government bonds, gold, and even "defensive stocks" like healthcare and utilities, which tend to be less affected by volatility. - Inflation: Sanctions on Russia could cause prices of oil, food, and other commodities to soar even more. Russia supplies more than a third of the EU’s natural gas, while Russia and Ukraine produce much of the world’s wheat and corn. THE TAKEAWAY How could markets react long term?… We can’t predict the future, but historically the US market has bounced back from conflicts over time. Since 1941 the total fall in the stock market after major geopolitical events was, on average, 5% — with a couple months to eventually recover. Of course, even if the market recovers, individual stocks might not. That’s one reason some investors diversify to help hedge risk. Thingy Spotify rolls out its first physical product for your car — but don’t call it a hardware biz Blasting “Good 4 U” in your ’97 Civic… Spotify’s Car Thing is now a real thing. Its first physical product — it’s literally called Car Thing — went on sale in the US yesterday after a limited release last April, when 2M people joined the waitlist. The $90 dash-mounted gadget is meant for cars without infotainment screens, and lets drivers control their Spotify tunes via touchscreen or voice control: It works only with Spotify Premium and requires a smartphone with Bluetooth or an aux cord. Hard(ware) right turn… Spotify has twice as many listeners as its closest streaming rival (Apple). Now it joins a long list of tech companies that’ve attempted to make the jump from software to hardware. Those efforts have had mixed results: - Hail Mary hardware projects like Microsoft’s Zune MP3 player and Google Glass AR glasses were discontinued after falling flat with consumers. - But connected gadgets like Amazon’s Kindle and Google’s Home Speakers succeeded by offering simple integrations with their parent companies’ other products and services. THE TAKEAWAY Not all products are designed to be huge sellers… Since most new cars come with either Apple’s CarPlay or Google’s Android Auto preinstalled, Spotify is launching a product into a market that’s shrinking, not expanding. And it knows that. Car Thing isn’t meant to create long-term revenue — it’s meant to build loyalty and encourage more Premium listening at home, at work, and on the road now. Looking ahead, Spotify says it's focused on audio, not hardware. Its execs have even described Car Thing as a “means to an end.” What else we're Snackin' - Boosted: A handful of new studies suggest that three doses of a Covid vaccine can protect most people for a long time, making the need for a fourth shot potentially less likely. - Return: Former President Trump is coming back to social media. His social platform, Truth Social, rose to the top of Apple’s App Store downloads after launching on Sunday, despite some glitches. - Speedy: Volkswagen is considering a plan to spin off Porsche in a possible IPO (Initial Porsche Offering?) as VW looks for cash to fund its EV transition. On its own, Porsche could be worth $100B+. - Sunset: AT&T became the first US wireless company to shut down its 3G network for good, raising fears that old 3G-connected devices (think: home alarms and bus displays) could suddenly stop working. - Ripe: Keep the guac coming. The US lifted its ban on avocado imports from Mexico after striking an agreement with Mexican authorities to give American food inspectors more protection from cartel threats. 🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here. The Snacks Daily Podcast Fresh off hosting the Super Bowl, lending giant SoFi is splurging $1B+ to buy a company that makes software for banks. Tune in to hear how it’s all part of SoFi’s strategy of moving from student loans to full-service fintech. Snack Fact Of the Day The Beijing Winter Games had the worst TV ratings in Olympic history — but the largest streaming audience ever Wednesday - Earnings expected from: Lowe’s, TJX, eBay, Public Storage, Molson Coors, Monday.com, Toll Brothers, and Hertz Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple, AT&T, Google, Microsoft, Spotify, and Amazon ID: 2050700 Robinhood Snacks newsletters and podcasts reflect the opinions of only the authors who are associated persons of Robinhood Financial LLC (Member SIPC and do not reflect the views of Robinhood Markets, Inc. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. They are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any security, digital asset (cryptocurrency, etc) in any account. They are also not research reports and are not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. Any third-party information provided therein does not reflect the views of Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, or any of their subsidiaries or affiliates. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results. Robinhood Terms and Conditions • Disclosure Library • Our Editorial Principles • Contact Us • FAQ Manage Your Subscription Preferences Putin’s speech immerses the audience in detail, citing the history of Stalin, Khruschev, the 1917 October Revolution, the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and what Stalin did in 1922 with respect to the People’s Commissar of Ethnic Affairs. The need for the earlier Soviet Union to offer concessions to the nationalists is portrayed as one reason why Ukraine was allowed to have some of its identity as Ukraine. Here is a typical passage: “Soviet Ukraine is the result of the Bolsheviks’ policy and can be rightfully called “Vladimir Lenin’s Ukraine.” He was its creator and architect. This is fully and comprehensively corroborated by archival documents, including Lenin’s harsh instructions regarding Donbass, which was actually shoved into Ukraine.” News Alert: US concerned Kyiv could fall to Russia within days, sources familiar with intel say US intelligence officials are concerned that Kyiv could fall under Russian control within days, according to two sources familiar with the latest intelligence. The sources said that the initial US assessment from before the invasion anticipated that the Ukrainian capital would be overrun within one to four days of a Russian attack remains the current expectation. Russian forces have moved to within 20 miles of Kyiv, senior administration officials told lawmakers on Capitol Hill Thursday night. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Our contention is that the reason that the West “rules” can be traced back to two events both taking place in China: the invention of the cannon, which made possible the survival of the weakest in Europe; and the arrival of Genghis Khan, which led to the survival of the strongest in China." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (1) Don’t read too much into early excitement/narratives without proof. This is the most enduring lesson I’ve learnt. It is so easy to get excited about the new thing. New manager or player comes in. Everyone gets excited. The first three games go great. More excitement – the new person can do no wrong. Then reality hits. Before you know it, the narrative flips. Everyone moves onto the next thing. This has happened so often that I’ve learnt to completely ignore early narratives without proof. (2) Consistency in the long run is the only thing that matters. The quote I think of is – people come for the magic and stay for the math. In the long run, it is the consistency in delivering numbers (goals, saves, points) that counts. The rest is gravy.