Nate Silver got this one very wrong

In 2022, no one gave my husband Adam Frisch a chance against Lauren Boebert. ‌‌‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ Democratic Values is dedicated to supporting candidates who stand strong on their Democratic principles and stand up to the MAGA far-right extremists tearing apart our country. If you really want to receive only our most urgent emails, [click here](. If you'd like to stop receiving these messages, you may [unsubscribe](. [Democratic Values](#) Hey {NAME}, In 2022, no one gave my husband Adam Frisch a chance against Lauren Boebert. Everywhere you looked, the political pundits were calling Colorado’s 3rd congressional district “Safe Republican” or “Solid R.” Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight only gave Adam a 3% chance of defeating Boebert. They projected he’d lose by over 45,000 votes! 5, 5, 5, 5, 5&nvep=ew0KICAiVGVuYW50VXJpIjogIm5ncHZhbjovL3Zhbi9OR1AvTkdQNTAvMS8xMDMxODgiLA0KICAiRGlzdHJpYnV0aW9uVW5pcXVlSWQiOiAiNDM4ODAwZWItZmRlOS1lZDExLThlOGItMDAyMjQ4MzJlYjczIiwNCiAgIkVtYWlsQWRkcmVzcyI6ICJ0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MUBnbWFpbC5jb20iDQp9&hmac=GAEMgaL1AThjvE4HUjrzYpibeqM8bPsr5seb2c0e1j0= In the end, though, the race went to a recount. Lauren Boebert won by just 546 votes, and Adam lost the closest race in the entire country. Because here’s what their “models” and “forecasts” didn’t factor in: Adam put in the work. He traveled 24,000 miles in our red pickup truck to every corner of the district. He met thousands and thousands of voters – and he listened. Now, my husband’s running again, and I’ll be honest: The first campaign was hard. But defeating Lauren Boebert is just too important to sit this out. Adam’s all-in to finish the job in 2024. I’m all-in. Can we count on you? [Please, if you can afford to, will you split a donation right now between Adam’s campaign and Democratic Values to help him defeat Lauren Boebert? We were outspent in 2022 and just barely lost. Whatever you can afford to give today will help us invest early and win.]( 5, 5, 5, 5, 5&nvep=ew0KICAiVGVuYW50VXJpIjogIm5ncHZhbjovL3Zhbi9OR1AvTkdQNTAvMS8xMDMxODgiLA0KICAiRGlzdHJpYnV0aW9uVW5pcXVlSWQiOiAiNDM4ODAwZWItZmRlOS1lZDExLThlOGItMDAyMjQ4MzJlYjczIiwNCiAgIkVtYWlsQWRkcmVzcyI6ICJ0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MUBnbWFpbC5jb20iDQp9&hmac=GAEMgaL1AThjvE4HUjrzYpibeqM8bPsr5seb2c0e1j0=) If you've saved payment information with ActBlue Express, your split donation between Adam Frisch and Democratic Values will go through immediately: [$5 »]( 10, 25, 50, 75, 100&nvep=ew0KICAiVGVuYW50VXJpIjogIm5ncHZhbjovL3Zhbi9OR1AvTkdQNTAvMS8xMDMxODgiLA0KICAiRGlzdHJpYnV0aW9uVW5pcXVlSWQiOiAiNDM4ODAwZWItZmRlOS1lZDExLThlOGItMDAyMjQ4MzJlYjczIiwNCiAgIkVtYWlsQWRkcmVzcyI6ICJ0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MUBnbWFpbC5jb20iDQp9&hmac=GAEMgaL1AThjvE4HUjrzYpibeqM8bPsr5seb2c0e1j0=) [$10 »]( 10, 25, 50, 75, 100&nvep=ew0KICAiVGVuYW50VXJpIjogIm5ncHZhbjovL3Zhbi9OR1AvTkdQNTAvMS8xMDMxODgiLA0KICAiRGlzdHJpYnV0aW9uVW5pcXVlSWQiOiAiNDM4ODAwZWItZmRlOS1lZDExLThlOGItMDAyMjQ4MzJlYjczIiwNCiAgIkVtYWlsQWRkcmVzcyI6ICJ0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MUBnbWFpbC5jb20iDQp9&hmac=GAEMgaL1AThjvE4HUjrzYpibeqM8bPsr5seb2c0e1j0=) [$25 »]( 10, 25, 50, 75, 100&nvep=ew0KICAiVGVuYW50VXJpIjogIm5ncHZhbjovL3Zhbi9OR1AvTkdQNTAvMS8xMDMxODgiLA0KICAiRGlzdHJpYnV0aW9uVW5pcXVlSWQiOiAiNDM4ODAwZWItZmRlOS1lZDExLThlOGItMDAyMjQ4MzJlYjczIiwNCiAgIkVtYWlsQWRkcmVzcyI6ICJ0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MUBnbWFpbC5jb20iDQp9&hmac=GAEMgaL1AThjvE4HUjrzYpibeqM8bPsr5seb2c0e1j0=) [$50 »]( 10, 25, 50, 75, 100&nvep=ew0KICAiVGVuYW50VXJpIjogIm5ncHZhbjovL3Zhbi9OR1AvTkdQNTAvMS8xMDMxODgiLA0KICAiRGlzdHJpYnV0aW9uVW5pcXVlSWQiOiAiNDM4ODAwZWItZmRlOS1lZDExLThlOGItMDAyMjQ4MzJlYjczIiwNCiAgIkVtYWlsQWRkcmVzcyI6ICJ0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MUBnbWFpbC5jb20iDQp9&hmac=GAEMgaL1AThjvE4HUjrzYpibeqM8bPsr5seb2c0e1j0=) [$75 »]( 10, 25, 50, 75, 100&nvep=ew0KICAiVGVuYW50VXJpIjogIm5ncHZhbjovL3Zhbi9OR1AvTkdQNTAvMS8xMDMxODgiLA0KICAiRGlzdHJpYnV0aW9uVW5pcXVlSWQiOiAiNDM4ODAwZWItZmRlOS1lZDExLThlOGItMDAyMjQ4MzJlYjczIiwNCiAgIkVtYWlsQWRkcmVzcyI6ICJ0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MUBnbWFpbC5jb20iDQp9&hmac=GAEMgaL1AThjvE4HUjrzYpibeqM8bPsr5seb2c0e1j0=) [$100 »]( 10, 25, 50, 75, 100&nvep=ew0KICAiVGVuYW50VXJpIjogIm5ncHZhbjovL3Zhbi9OR1AvTkdQNTAvMS8xMDMxODgiLA0KICAiRGlzdHJpYnV0aW9uVW5pcXVlSWQiOiAiNDM4ODAwZWItZmRlOS1lZDExLThlOGItMDAyMjQ4MzJlYjczIiwNCiAgIkVtYWlsQWRkcmVzcyI6ICJ0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MUBnbWFpbC5jb20iDQp9&hmac=GAEMgaL1AThjvE4HUjrzYpibeqM8bPsr5seb2c0e1j0=) This is a journey we’re making again because so many people like you reached out and encouraged Adam to run one more time. I know it means a lot to Adam that you have his back. Thank you, Katy Paid for by Democratic Values PAC [CONTRIBUTE »]( Democratic Values PAC PO Box 15320 Washington, DC 20003 United States If you wish to donate by check, please make a check payable to "Democratic Values PAC" and mail it to PO BOX 15320 WASHINGTON, DC 20003 If you would like to receive only our most important emails, [click here.]( If you no longer wish to receive emails please [unsubscribe](. This message was sent to {EMAIL}.