Yellen Claims All Is Well But...

Inflation up, gas prices surging...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 August 15, 2023 | [Read Online]( Dawn Report August 15, 2023 Do you believe her or not? Say whatever you want, but I’m skeptical. All right, forget that, NO, I don’t believe her. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says that everything is JUST FINE with the economy. “Over the past year, our task has been to transition the economy from rapid recovery to stable growth,” she said. “Our path so far shows that we are on the right track, even as we remain vigilant about potential challenges and uncertainties.” She defended the narrative of “Bidenomics,” saying that the president’s economic policies are one of the main reasons everything is going well, especially because of the so-called Inflation Recovery Act. “The continued strength of our labor market is particularly impressive given our flight against inflation,” she said. “We know that progress rarely moves in a straight line. But I still believe that there is a path to continue reducing inflation while maintaining a healthy labor market.” In fairness, the Biden Administration has met with some success in maintaining this balancing act so far. However, as we discussed yesterday, unexpectedly strong inflation data in Friday’s producer figures could put pressure on the Fed… And the Fed is why we are in this mess to begin with. Remember transitory inflation? The Fed is no longer projecting a recession this year. Neither is Bank of America or JPMorgan Chase. Yet we will get some real numbers on consumption this week - from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot. If earnings disappoint even as inflation spikes, we will have a big problem. If we don’t then the Fed may be able to pull this off in the short-term… even as the entitlement and debt crisis is kicked down the road for us to deal with later. For now… Get What’s Yours, Jeff Bishop WORD ON THE STREET Trump Hit With RICO, Yellen Touts Bidenomics, UBS Pays Up - What’s One More Indictment? - Just add it to the list. Former president Donald Trump and numerous associates (including former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani) were hit with criminal charges related to anti-racketeering for allegedly trying to overturn the election in Georgia. Trump, who continues to lead the polls for the GOP nomination, called it “shocking and absurd.” - America’s Manufacturing Boom - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence that the labor market will remain strong even as inflation is contained. She also said America’s efforts to bring manufacturing home are paying off. “The explosion in U.S. factory construction is a uniquely American story, one then we do not see replicated in other peer countries,” she said, touting $500 billion in manufacturing investments since January 2021. - $1.4 Billion Bill For UBS - UBS will pay $1.4 billion to settle claims of fraud and misconduct over selling residential mortgage-backed securities. Many of the claims date back to the financial crisis, and the bank called it a “legacy matter” that put the case firmly behind it. - Gas Prices Climbing Again… - Another sign inflation could be increasing. Gas prices are approaching $4.00 a gallon nationally, the highest level since October 19. Supply cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia and high demand caused by extreme heat are blamed. HOT SPOTS: What's Going on in Geopolitics - Japanese GDP Up By 6% - Some unexpected good news for the global economy - Japan posted annualized 6% growth in the second quarter, far more than expected. Quarterly expansion was 1.5%, more than the 0.8% predicted. The Nikkei 225 was up about 1% on the news. - Russian Central Bank Holds Emergency Meeting - The Russian central bank held an emergency meeting as the ruble has passed 101 rubles to the dollar, hitting its lowest level in about 17 months. The government is expected to hike interest rates and do whatever is needed to strengthen the currency, after a top advisor to Vladimir Putin said a weak currency “negatively affects people’s real incomes.” - China Won’t Report Youth Unemployment - The National Bureau of Statistics has an interesting way to combat unrest about high unemployment for young people - just don’t report the figures. However, it couldn’t cover up other disappointments, as China in July posted smaller retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment figures than expected. CUTTING EDGE: What['](s Happening In Tech - DeSantis Says He’ll Ban TikTok - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said he would ban TikTok if given the chance. “I do think it represents a threat to our country given China’s ownership of it,” he said. He characterized China as the “top threat to this country.” - Netflix Testing Video Games - And so it begins. Netflix has begun a testing program with a “small number of users” as it seeks to crack the video game market. “Today, we’re taking the first step in making games playable on every device where our members enjoy Netflix - TVs, computers, and mobile,” it said. - Musk Auctioning Off Twitter Merchandise - That’s one way to raise capital. Elon Musk will be auctioning off 584 lots from Twitter (now X) as he seeks to rebrand. Oil paintings, bird cages, and other items are on offer - including a Twitter sign that is still attached to the outside of the HQ building. FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION “I still think we will bring home one last triple digit gain.” NVDA is an important part of the RID Legacy Portfolio. And investors got some good news yesterday that sent the chip company surging. Mr. X has more. [NVDA HAS FARTHER TO GO]( Enjoying Dawn Report? Learn something, made some money? SHARE YOUR STORY WITH US OR TELL US HOW TO SERVE YOU BETTER. 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