Why You Need to Think Differently

Stop Thinking Inside the Box [The Daily Reckoning] August 03, 2022 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Why You Need to Think Differently - Welcome to Paradigm Press Group… - Wrong paradigms, wrong results… - Jim Rickards develops breakthrough paradigms that crush existing forecast models… [[SCIENTISTS SPEECHLESS] Patent No. 11,219,620 B2: The End Of Arthritis?]( [Click here for more...]( This tiny stock’s new patent could give new hope to millions… and make early investors rich. And it all kicks off with an announcement that I expect any day now… when this $87 million company will announce what could be the potential end of arthritis. [Click Here Now]( Annapolis, Maryland August 3, 2022 [Brian Maher] BRIAN MAHER Dear Reader , Chaotic, confounded, confused… “like an infield during a bunt.” That is how the legendary New Yorker editor E.B. White once described the commotion surrounding the bunted ball. Today’s markets are often confusing. And you are likely confused. You are battling a bunt. As an erring fielder throws to the wrong base, an erring investor throws his money to the “wrong base.” What is more, the ground rules have changed — yesterday’s stock market is not today’s stock market. The changes merely exacerbate the confusion. Yet we seek clarity… so that we may view the action with clear eyes, with knowing eyes. That is, we need new paradigms to discern the order within the apparent chaos. Welcome to Paradigm Press Group Paradigm: “A standard, perspective or set of ideas. A paradigm is a way of looking at something.” In the top right corner of our new masthead, you will note this symbol: [IMG 1] That is because The Daily Reckoning will henceforth publish under the proud banner of Paradigm Press Group. Paradigm Press Group is less a fresh venture than a coming together, a warm reunion of separated friends. Explains colleague Dave Gonigam of our sister publication, The 5 Min. Forecast: Without getting into the gory details, [some five years ago] our little firm split into several constituent firms that went by different names… The arrangement was unwieldy and unmanageable for our publishers and marketers. Much worse, it was a source of confusion for our readers. That was especially true if you were a new subscriber to one of our entry-level newsletters (such as The Daily Reckoning). Suddenly you were inundated with emails from outfits you’d never heard of — certainly not in the initial sales pitch to which you responded. If you were overwhelmed (best-case scenario) or ticked off (worst case)... we don’t blame you. Yet we are delighted to inform you that the confusion, the overwhelming and the ticking off (we certainly hope) are no more: As of today, that’s all over. All of our operations are back under one corporate umbrella. Henceforth, everything you get from us will come from Paradigm Press Group. [Federal Ruling does WHAT?]( [Click here for more...]( The Federal Government just passed an obscure new ruling. It could change your life in ways you’ve never thought possible. And help some Americans make a small fortune in the process. [Click Here To Learn How]( Who Cares? “Just so,” you say. “But why should I care? And what’s with that Paradigm name or whatever it is you’re now calling yourselves?” Your question is a valid question, worthy of a valid answer. We cannot improve upon Mr. Gonigam’s response. Therefore we shall not attempt to. Says he: There’s no shortage of places where you can find formulaic “investment advice.” But it’s a rare thing indeed to find investment recommendations that rest on a systematic worldview. That is, we’re talking about a model of how the economy and the markets work — one that’s grounded in tried-and-true principles, yes, but one that can also evolve in the face of new information. We firmly believe that by acting on a rigorous paradigm, you can achieve significant outperformance in your portfolio — preserving your wealth, growing your retirement, securing your future. Especially now at a time when confusion and commotion pervade the markets in a way they haven’t in many, many decades. More: Over time, we hope you’ll thrive by following the paradigms [our experts] have developed over a lifetime of market experience. What’s more, we hope you’ll come to feel a sense of community with your fellow readers — an appreciation that you’re not alone in a world that all too often seems as if it’s going off the rails. Wrong Paradigms, Wrong Results “Swell,” you quip, “but can you please give me an example of a new paradigm?” We happily refer you to the fine example of Jim Rickards. Mr. Rickards maintains — steadfastly and adamantly — that the economics profession employs defective and obsolete forecasting models: A forecaster who turns out to be accurate 70% of the time is way ahead of the crowd. In fact, if you can be accurate just 55% of the time, you’re in a position to make money, since you’ll be right more than you’re wrong. If you size your bets properly and cut losses, a 55% average will produce above-average returns. Even monkeys can join in the game. If you’re forecasting random binary outcomes (stocks up or down, rates high or low, etc.), a trained monkey will average 50%. The reason is that the monkey knows nothing and just points to a random result. Random pointing with random outcomes over a sustained period will be “right” half the time and “wrong” half the time, for a 50% forecasting record. You won’t make any money with that, but you won’t lose any either. It’s a push. [Biden to Replace US Dollar?]( [Click here for more...]( Thanks to Biden’s Executive Order 14067, every dollar you own could be in serious jeopardy. They could be made worthless, or even confiscated – practically overnight. [Click Here To Learn More]( So if 70% accuracy is uncanny, 55% accuracy is OK and 50% accuracy is achieved by trained monkeys, how do actual professional forecasters do? The answer is less than 50%. In short, professional forecasters are worse than trained monkeys at predicting markets. The bottom line is that if you have defective and obsolete models, you will produce incorrect analysis and bad policy every time. Monkeys Make Monkeys of the Fed And no models are so defective and obsolete as the Federal Reserve’s forecasting models. The trained monkey trounces this bunch. This primate makes — if you’ll indulge the expression — monkeys of them: There’s no better example of this than the Federal Reserve. The Fed uses equilibrium models to understand an economy that is not an equilibrium system; it’s a complex dynamic system. The Fed uses the Phillips curve to understand the relationship between unemployment and inflation when 50 years of data say there is no fixed relationship. The Fed uses what’s called value-at-risk modeling based on normally distributed events when the evidence is clear that the degree distribution of risk events is a power curve, not a normal or bell curve. As a result of these defective models, the Fed printed US$3.5 trillion of new money beginning in 2008 to “stimulate” the economy, only to produce the weakest recovery in history (and that was before the pandemic!). Need proof? Every year, the Federal Reserve forecasts economic growth on a one-year forward basis. And it’s been wrong every year for the better part of a decade. When I say “wrong,” I mean by orders of magnitude. If the Fed forecast 3.5% growth and actual growth was 3.3%, I would consider that to be awesome. But the Fed would forecast 3.5% growth and it would come in at 2.2%. That’s not even close, considering that growth is confined to plus or minus 4% in the vast majority of years. That is because the Federal Reserve gutters along using the wrong paradigms. It is also why Jim has pioneered fresh, advanced and comprehensive models. A New Paradigm These models mirror reality to degrees often fantastic. To construct them he sweated and pored over the arcane sciences of complexity theory, advanced statistics, behavioral psychology — and more: I’ve got the right models, which I developed for the CIA working in collaboration with top applied mathematicians and physicists at places like the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Applied Physics Laboratory. These models do not assume equilibrium systems and normally distributed risk like mainstream models. My models are based on complexity theory, Bayesian statistics, behavioral psychology and history. They produce much more accurate results than all of the alternatives. Jim’s the One Who Ended up Laughing It is these crackerjack, future-divining models that allowed Jim to predict the Great Financial Crisis of 2008… the unlikely election of Donald Trump… Brexit… this year’s bear market… to list some. All the “experts” laughed him out of court beforehand. Yet Jim laughed last — and hardest. He was right and they were wrong. It was because Jim Rickards developed the proper filters, the proper forecasting models — the proper paradigms. Because of them Jim carries around with him a crystal ball of remarkable clarity (that also allowed his subscribers to post gains of over 700% on one recent trade recommendation). Now you know precisely why our firm has consolidated under the name of Paradigm Press Group… under whose wing we now roost snugly and happily. And we are pleased beyond description to have you tucked in alongside us. Regards, [Brian Maher] Brian Maher Managing Editor, The Daily Reckoning Editor’s note: Jim Rickards has gone live with an [urgent Zoom call]( where he talked about everything from the recent debacle with Pelosi and Taiwan to the Fed’s most recent rate hike. Jim says this is by FAR one of the most explosive and high-demand Zoom calls he’s ever done. Because of Zoom limitations and the fact that we had more than 10,000 people registered for the call, you may have been locked out. If so, don’t worry. Here’s a replay link: [CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE ZOOM REPLAY]( But because of the time-sensitive nature of the content, this message will be removed from the internet by Thursday at midnight at the latest. So don’t delay. [Click here now for immediate access to today’s urgent Zoom call.]( Thank you for reading The Daily Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Brian Maher] [Brian Maher]( is the Daily Reckoning's Managing Editor. Before signing on to Agora Financial, he was an independent researcher and writer who covered economics, politics and international affairs. His work has appeared in the Asia Times and other news outlets around the world. He holds a Master's degree in Defense & Strategic Studies. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( The Daily Reckoning is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please read our [Privacy Statement](. 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