Time to Move?

Why You Might Want to Consider Moving Were you forwarded this email? [Sign-up to The Daily Reckoning here.]( [Unsubscribe]( [Daily Reckoning] Time to Move? - The value of independence from vulnerable supply chains… - “Where do we want to be in the vast human herd when social order unravels?”… - Better to move sooner rather than later… Recommended Link [Attention! Before You Read Any Further…]( Before you read any further in today’s issue, an urgent situation needs your immediate attention. If you don’t plan on claiming this new upgrade to your Strategic Intelligence subscription, you’re missing out on a huge opportunity. Right now is your chance to grab one of the biggest (and most valuable) upgrades our company has ever made to a newsletter. I’m taking Strategic Intelligence to an entirely new level and I’d hate to see you left behind. [Click Here Now]( San Francisco, California January 15, 2022 Editor’s note: Recent supply chain disruptions have revealed the system’s vulnerabilities. Today, Charles Hugh Smith shows you why he thinks moving to a rural area might be a good option before the next major crisis, and the sooner the better. [Charles Hugh Smith]Dear Reader, The status quo is fantastically wasteful and ineffective. For example, it now takes 20–25 years to build a single bridge or tunnel, and each project is billions of dollars over budget. Yet we're assured that the entire nation will seamlessly and painlessly transition away from hydrocarbon fuels to alternative energy in 20–25 years. Never mind that this would require building a new nuclear plant or the equivalent every month for the next 20 years; skeptics are just naysayers. While a successful transition to a degrowth economy and society is certainly physically possible, the current status quo lacks the will, structure, leadership or desire to manage such a transition. While no one is entirely independent of long supply chains and energy-intensive industrial economies, the lower one's dependency and one's exposure to the risks of social disorder, the better off one will be. Put another way, the greater one's self-reliance and independence from global supply chains, the lower the impact should things break down. The closer one is to local sources of energy, fresh water, food, etc., the lower the likelihood of losing all access to these essentials. Pricing out the Locals The wealthiest few hedge their risks by having one or more homes they can escape to if urban life breaks down. When risks rise, the wealthy start buying rural homes sight unseen for double the prices locals paid a few months earlier. Here's the problem: Roughly 81% of Americans live in urban zones (270 million people), and around 19% (60 million people) live in rural areas. About 31% of urban residents live in dense urban cores, about 25% live in suburban counties and the remaining 24% live in urban clusters and metropolitan areas — smaller cities, etc. Rural regions have plenty of land but relatively few dwellings due to the low population density. Many rural economies have stagnated for decades, so the housing stock has not grown by much and older homes have deteriorated due to being abandoned or poorly maintained. Few building contractors survived the stagnation and so finding crews to build a new home is also non-trivial. So when the wealthiest few rush out to buy second or third homes in desirable rural areas in Idaho, Montana, Utah, Colorado, North Carolina, etc., they find a very restricted supply of homes available. This generates a bidding war for the relatively few homes considered acceptable and prices skyrocket, pricing out locals who soon resent the wealthy newcomers' financial power and fear the inevitable rise of the political and commercial power their wealth can buy. (Cough, Bill Gates, cough.) Recommended Link [[URGENT] If You Missed Bitcoin’s 103,533% Explosion, Claim This New Book Right Away]( [Read more here...]( If you’ve missed Bitcoin’s historic run-up to over $60,000… Then you need to check out page 54 of crypto millionaire James Altucher’s new book. In it, he details a cryptocurrency he believes could one day surpass Bitcoin. Now, James famously said Bitcoin was the future all the way back in 2013 – when it traded at just $61… Anyone who followed him had the chance at gains as high as 103,533%. But he says this new opportunity could be even bigger. And for a limited time, he’s releasing his new book through his special link. [Click Here To Claim Your Copy]( The Vulnerable Cities At present, few anticipate urban America becoming a dicey place to live and own a home. But inequality and the hollowing out of the economy by globalization and financialization have left cities entirely dependent on diesel-fueled trucks to deliver virtually everything. This is also true of rural communities, of course, but some rural areas still produce energy and food, and given the lower population densities, these communities are less dependent on global supply chains and are therefore more self-sufficient. Rural households have more opportunities to raise animals, grow vegetables, etc., and more opportunities to have supportive relationships with neighbors who actually produce something tangible and essential. Dependence is a matter of scale: If you can get by on five gallons of gasoline a month, you're much more likely to put your hands on enough fuel to get by than if you needed a minimum of 50 gallons of fuel to survive. The same is true of food, fresh water and other essentials: The less you need, the more you supply yourself, the lower your vulnerability to supply disruptions. Lower population densities lend themselves to greater self-sufficiency/resilience and community cohesion. Roving mobs are less likely to form simply because the low density makes such mobs difficult to assemble. Urban Social Cohesion Is Gone Social cohesion is a combination of civic virtue, shared purpose, agency (having a stake in the local economy and a say in decisions that affect everyone) and moral legitimacy, i.e., a community that isn't divided into a self-serving elite that owns the vast majority of the wealth, capital and political power and a relatively powerless majority (i.e., debt serfs and tax donkeys). In my analysis, social cohesion in most urban zones has already eroded to the point of no return. The tattered remnants will crumble with one swift kick. Social collapse has consequences, so we have to ask: Where do we want to be in the vast human herd when social order unravels? The conventional view is the urban populace will continue to grow at the expense of rural regions, a trend that's been in place for hundreds of years. But this trend exactly parallels the rise of hydrocarbon energy. Large cities existed long before hydrocarbon energy, but these cities arose and fell depending on the availability of essential resources within reach. Imperial Rome, for example, likely had 1 million residents at the apex of its power. These residents were largely dependent on grain grown in North African colonies and shipped across the Mediterranean to Rome's port of Ostia. Once those wheat-exporting colonies were lost, Rome's population fell precipitously, reaching a nadir of perhaps 10,000 residents living amidst the ruins of a once-great metropolis. More recently, economic and social shifts hollowed out many city cores in the 1970s as residents and jobs moved to the suburbs. Recommended Link [Does this tiny battery company have the key to Tesla’s Million Mile Battery?]( [Read more here...]( Chief Technology Officer of St. Paul Research, Ray Blanco, says a tiny company founded by a former senior Tesla battery engineer is a crucial part of the story… A technology that’s already protected by patent application No. 3069168. And according to Ray, a partnership with Tesla could be imminent. If that happens, he predicts the tiny stock could skyrocket 100% in a matter of minutes. That’s why he just went live in an urgent briefing to give you the breakdown of the situation he sees unfolding. This is by far the most urgent stock research we’ve ever issued. Click the link below to get more urgent details on this fast moving situation. [Click Here To Learn More]( A Quiet Exodus A reversal of this trend in favor of small cities/towns and rural areas may already be gathering momentum under the radar. All this is abstract until the attractions of city living fade and economic vitality declines to the point of civic and financial bankruptcy. Cities have cycles of expansion, decay and decline just like societies and economies, and it behooves us to monitor the fragility, dependency and risk of the place we inhabit. At nadirs, homes and buildings that were once worth a fortune are abandoned, or their values drop to fractions of their former values. Putting these dynamics together, the problem boils down to a systemic scarcity of housing in attractive, productive rural towns and regions and a massive oversupply of urban residents who may decide to move once urban zones unravel. Let's assume that a mere 5% of urban residents decamp for rural regions. Given that there are about 130 million households in the U.S. and the urban 81% of that total is 105 million households, 5% of that is 5.25 million households. Given that the number of rural communities that have all the desirable characteristics is not that large, we can estimate that it might be difficult for even 500,000 urban households to relocate to their first choice, never mind 5.25 million. This gives an extreme advantage to those few who move first, long before they must. Better to Move Sooner Rather Than Later The financial advantage for first movers is equally extreme, as they can still sell their urban homes for a great deal more money than they will fetch once conditions deteriorate. (The value of homes can drop to zero, as Detroit has shown.) Those few who decide to join the early movers, even though the difficulties are many, have all the advantages. Those who wait until conditions slip off a cliff may find their once-valuable homes have lost most or all of their value and the communities they would have chosen are out of reach financially. Most people reckon they have plenty of time to act — decades or at least many years. The problem with systemic fragility was aptly described by Seneca: "Increases are of sluggish growth but the way to ruin is rapid." My own expectation is a self-reinforcing unraveling that gathers momentum to breaking points by 2024–25, only a few years away. Rather than fix the systemic problems of inequality and scarcity, the status quo's expedient fixes (printing trillions out of thin air and hoping there will be no adverse consequences from distributing free money to financiers and bread and circuses) will only accelerate the unraveling. There may not be as much time as we think. Regards, Charles Hugh Smith for The Daily Reckoning Editor’s note: How can you protect your wealth in chaotic times? Some are turning to cryptocurrencies. But history points to something far more enduring... When Rome was overrun by barbarians and the empire collapsed… [powerful families survived by storing their wealth in gold.]( [Click here for more...]( Gold is real money. It’s private, secure and remains incredibly valuable today. It is also dirt, dirt cheap… for now. When the bug really hits the windshield, gold will likely explode in value, and quickly become out of reach for most investors. Centuries ago, smart families maintained their lifestyle while the rest of Europe plunged into centuries of chaos by owning gold. [Click here to see how gold can potentially save you from chaos today.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you for reading The Daily Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Charles Hugh Smith][Charles Hugh Smith]( is an American writer and blogger, and serves as the chief writer for the blog "Of Two Minds". Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites, and his commentary is featured on a number of sites including Zerohedge.com, The American Conservative, and Peak Prosperity. Add feedback@dailyreckoning.com to your address book: [Whitelist us]( Additional Articles & Commentary: [Daily Reckoning Website]( Join the conversation! Follow us on social media: [Facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [Twitter]( [RSS Feed]( [YouTube]( The Daily Reckoning is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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