2021: A Year of Bad Luck?

The Forgotten Role of Lady Luck Were you forwarded this email? [Sign-up to The Daily Reckoning here.]( [Unsubscribe]( [Daily Reckoning] 2021: A Year of Bad Luck? - "This time it's different"… - Why vaccines might not be as effective as advertised… - Are we only in the first inning of a sustained run of back luck?… Recommended Link [(1)Pending Message from Publisher]( [Read more here...]( San Francisco, California January 18, 2021 Editor’s note: We like to believe we are the captains of our own destiny, that there’s always a solution. But is there? Today Charles Hugh Smith shows you luck plays a major role, and why we may be only in the “first inning” of bad luck. [Charles Hugh Smith] Dear Reader, Among the many "interesting" (a safe word to use in perilous times) signs and portents swirling around us, here are some financial tidbits "of interest." Just like in 2000, proponents claim "this time it's different." Back then, the claim was that since the Internet would be growing for decades, dot-com stocks could go to the moon and beyond. The claim that the Internet would continue growing was sound, but the prediction that this growth would drive stock valuations into a never-ending bubble was unsound. Once again we hear reasonable-sounding claims being used to support predictions of a never-ending rise in stock valuations. They’re perfectly justified by today’s low interest, we hear. There’s always a reason why it’s different this time. Financial assets as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have hit an all-time extreme. In the "Glorious Thirty" postwar years (1946-1975) of broad-based prosperity, financial assets were around three times GDP. Now financial assets are over six times the GDP. This ratio increased with every one of the three bubbles since the mid-1990s: the dot-com bubble in 1999-2000, the Global Financial Meltdown in 2008-09 and now the bubble of 2020-21. That financial assets are now six times the size of the "real economy" (GDP) is an "interesting" data point. Despite assurances that "this time it's different," all speculative bubbles pop because they are based in human emotions. We attempt to rationalize the bubble by invoking the real world, but bubbles are manifestations of human emotions and the feedback of being in a herd of social animals. I'm not sure if this even qualifies as "interesting" or not; perhaps it's too "obvious" to be "interesting." But people are all too sure about everything, so sure we’re the masters of our own destiny… We’ve Forgotten Lady Luck In our self-deluded hubris, we reckon we've moved beyond the influence of fortune, a.k.a. Lady Luck: our technologies are so powerful and our monetary policies so godlike that nothing as random as luck could ever crush our limitless expansion. Thus does hubris beg for a comeuppance: the greater the hubris, the greater the reversal of fortune, the greater the confidence in our godlike powers, the greater the collapse of our prideful faith in technology and economic policies. So we've enshrined our hubris-soaked happy story: the virus will naturally weaken, vaccines will conquer the Covid virus in short order, and by opening the monetary spigots and flooding the global economy with trillions in newly created currencies, we'll unleash the greatest boom in history, because it's so righteously "green." Recommended Link [The Biggest Transfer of Wealth in History?]( [Read more here...]( He’s the man who predicted the 2008 recession… Recognized as the #1 personal finance expert in the world… Author of Rich Dad Poor Dad with 41 million copies sold… Now, he’s coming to you to reveal EXACTLY what’s going on under the nose of every American… an urgent warning to every single American… The biggest transfer of wealth in U.S. history… It’s a disturbing new movement set-off by a group of 12 unelected officials… “secretly” siphoning money from the poor and middle class to the wealthy. Unfortunately, nobody will be able to stop this new movement… Not Democrats. Not Republicans. Not Congress… Not even the president. Unfortunately, 99% of Americans don’t understand what’s going on… But today Robert Kiyosaki will blow the lid off the entire operation and help you take 5-steps to protect & grow your wealth during the coming weeks. There’s not much time... [Click Here To Get More Details]( We seem to have forgotten that to elicit a laugh, tell God your plans. We confused a sustained run of good fortune with godlike powers that are impervious to mere luck. Unfortunately for all the true believers in our vaunted technology and human agencies, luck still matters, and after 50+ years of under-appreciated, fabulously good fortune, we're in the first at-bat of a sustained reversal of fortune, for good luck doesn't last forever, nor is it some birthright of technologically advanced civilizations. Are we ill-prepared for seven lean years of increasingly bad luck? Absolutely. Whatever technology can't resolve, trillions in newly issued currency will: either the magic of technology will work miracles, or the magic of limitless free money will work whatever miracles are left after technology wipes up the spot of bother. You Couldn’t Draw It up Any Better If you wanted to script an unprecedented collapse of faith in the false gods of technology and money-printing, you'd outline exactly what transpired in 2020: a reckless dismissal of the pandemic followed by a monumental financial crash that opened the floodgates of free money, which triggered a massive "recovery" rally in risk assets, driving gamblers' confidence to new heights of fantasy. All hail our new secular gods, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful force in the Universe! Then you'd release miraculous vaccines that promised a permanent resolution to the pandemic and a measured return to the carefree pre-pandemic orgy of debt-based consumption. (Never mind the doubts of some experts about the vaccine protocols). Then you'd script the opening inning of the tragi-comedy unfolding in 2021: Rather than fading as so many were pleased to confidently predict, the Covid virus has made remarkable gains in function, becoming more contagious and more elusive as multiple variants emerge globally. Rather than conquering the virus, we're unable to even keep pace. The variant ravaging Britain was finally identified in late December, and subsequent sequencing of previously collected samples indicates that it emerged (or arrived) in September. In the meantime, this variant (and other mutations with similar characteristics) have spread around the world with business travelers, tourists, etc. One or more of these variants may reduce the efficacy of the much-hyped vaccines. Recommended Link [The Bull Market Biden Can’t Stop…]( [Read more here...]( No matter how you feel about the presidential election… Our research indicates that the bull market that started last year will continue in 2021… Regardless of who’s in the White House. And this under-the-radar profit opportunity – with ties to Elon Musk – could lead the charge. This has NOTHING to do with Tesla, AI or self-driving cars. But the gains here could be just as staggering. [See What Elon Is Up To Here]( Three Reasons Vaccines Might Not Be as Effective as Advertised Everything that was supposed to work smoothly due to our oh-so-advanced technological and administrative prowess is now either in doubt or in shambles. Consider the potential for less than 95% efficacy in the vaccines due to the interactions and mutually reinforcing dynamics of: 1) vaccine hesitancy in those who understand the conventional processes of testing vaccines best, i.e. healthcare professionals... 2) the potential for consequential numbers of those who receive the first shot of vaccine failing to come back for the second shot due to unpleasant experiences after the first shot or other conditions such as being overworked, evicted, etc., and... 3) variants further reducing the efficacy of the vaccines in unpredictable ways. So let's say the efficacy drops from the promised 95% to 65%. Are you in the 2/3 camp who are protected by the vaccine from serious illness (though you may be a carrier and infect others, a possibility that was not tested by the trials protocols), or are you in the 1/3 camp who for whatever reason is no longer protected by the vaccine? Since we're chasing a fast-mutating virus, there may not be a fast, accurate way to identify who's fully protected and who isn't. Since this may be unknowable, everyone will have to continue the behavioral methods of limiting exposure and transmission of the virus. In which case the vaccines will have accomplished very little in terms of returning the world to the pre-pandemic glory days of 2019. If we have indeed begun a sustained reversal of fortune, it might be prudent to consider the possibility we're only in the first inning of a sustained run of back luck. We might want to consider learning a new theme song for 2021, Albert King's Born Under a Bad Sign (composed by Booker T. Jones and William Bell): "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all." The cycles of human history are amenable to a reversal of fortune. Suppressing discussions about the potentially lavish banquet of consequences set by a reversal of fortune won't actually change the outcome of the next eight innings. It will only serve to increase the odds of catastrophically consequential decisions being made by those at the top of the hubris-heap. Regards, Charles Hugh Smith for The Daily Reckoning Editor’s note: At the end of a barren cul-de-sac, in Chattanooga Tennessee, lies a nondescript warehouse protected by cheap barbed wire fence. [Click here for more...]( [The story behind what’s inside this warehouse is incredible. If you are ready to enter the rabbit hole, click here to continue.]( Most would pass this industrial wasteland without a second thought. But inside this warehouse, what could be the technological revolution of the century is getting ready to be unleashed on the world. Founded by a former senior engineer at Tesla, a tiny, $2 company is ready to change an entire industry as we know it. A change our colleagues believe will impact your life. [This page will explain everything.]( Click the link above to learn about what could be the craziest stock story of our generation. --------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you for reading The Daily Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Charles Hugh Smith][Charles Hugh Smith]( is an American writer and blogger, and serves as the chief writer for the blog "Of Two Minds". Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites, and his commentary is featured on a number of sites including Zerohedge.com, The American Conservative, and Peak Prosperity. Add feedback@dailyreckoning.com to your address book: [Whitelist us]( Additional Articles & Commentary: [Daily Reckoning Website]( Join the conversation! 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