Key Events to Watch This Week (August 21-25)

If you cannot see this email properly, please click [here]( To unsubscribe from this mailing list please click [here]( The dog days of summer are ending, but the action is just heating up across the markets. A quiet economic calendar will put the focus squarely on the Federal Reserve and comments from Chair Jerome Powell at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium. Powell takes center stage on Friday morning at 10am ET with a speech titled "Challenges for Monetary Policy." The world will be listening intently for any hints on whether the Fed's inflation fight could be nearing an inflection point with rate cuts potentially on the horizon. Here are the key events investors need to monitor over the coming week: Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium (August 24-26) Beyond just Chair Powell's keynote speech on Friday, the multi-day conference in Wyoming's Grand Teton mountains will feature a number of other presentations and panel discussions with Fed officials and economists. While not typically market-moving events, comments from the various speakers will be parsed closely for any revelations on the economic outlook and future policy path. A roster of which specific Fed officials are participating will be closely watched. --------------------------------------------------------------- Sponsor [Get out of cash before the Fed's next meeting]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Retail Earnings Parade A steady stream of major retailers will continue reporting their quarterly scorecards this week. On Tuesday, home improvement giant Lowe's (LOW) and discount chain TJX (TJX) are on the docket. The next day brings results from big-box giants Target (TGT) and Macy's (M). Then on Thursday, off-price player BJs Wholesale (BJ) reports. Investors will be looking for any signs of consumer spending fatigue or resilience, inventory levels, profit margin pressures, and forward guidance amid the economic crosscurrents. Economic Data Rundown It's an especially quiet week for heavyweight economic reports with just a handful of second-tier releases on tap: - Monday: Leading Economic Indicators - Tuesday: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Manufacturing & Services PMIs, Existing Home Sales - Friday: New Home Sales Housing data, though stale by the time its released, could draw some interest given real estate's sensitivity to interest rates. Signs of continued cooling in sales as mortgage rates remain elevated would suggest the Fed's hikes are still working through the economy. What Investors Should Watch Given the lack of market-moving catalysts before Powell's speech, investor focus could gravitate heavily towards interest rate expectations leading up to Friday. The CME's FedWatch tool currently shows an 87% probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the next FOMC meeting in September. However, markets see a 76% chance of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of 2023. Investors will be watching Powell's language intently for any pivot towards a more dovish policy stance that could accelerate the repricing towards rate cuts. Some potential dovish triggers would be references to achieving price stability "soon", concerns over overtightening and "unexpected" labor market weakness, or reiterating that recent inflation prints are "encouraging." On the other hand, Powell reiterating the Fed's data-dependence, stating the battle on inflation is "not yet won," and emphasizing commitment to the 2% inflation target could signal a still-hawkish bias potentially staying higher for longer on rates. This would set up a clash with current easing expectations and potentially roil markets. While unlikely to reveal specific policy leanings, any nuanced shift in tone from Powell could spark volatile reactions across stocks, bonds, forex and interest rate markets in the latter half of this week. Traders should stay nimble and data-dependent themselves as the Fed's latest messaging gets updated. In the absence of major macro news earlier in the week, markets could also take cues from the steady flow of corporate earnings reports from influential retailers with their valuable insights into consumer health. Overall, this backdrop sets up a potential make-or-break scenario for markets itching for clarity on when the Fed might start to take its foot off the economic brake after over a year of relentless tightening. Volatility could easily ensue depending on how Powell characterizes the latest data in framing potential rate cut timing - or absence of cuts - in his anxiously awaited speech. Stay tuned for what could be a pivotal August update from the world's most powerful central banker. YOU NEED TO WATCH THIS NOW [WARNING: Read This Before the Next Fed Meeting]( are looking to the Fed with high hopes for interest rate relief. Unfortunately, many have no idea there's another major story unfolding right now, one that could be worth $40 trillion. [This Wall Street millionaire just stepped forward with all the details, and how it could make some folks rich.]( DailyMarketMovers.com Disclaimer Content marked as "Sponsor" may be paid for and are not endorsed or warranted by our staff or company. The content in our emails is for educational or entertainment use, and is not a substitute for professional advice or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Neither the publisher nor the editors are registered investment advisors and we do not provide personalized financial counseling. 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