What GOP Voters Have Told Me Since Trump’s Indictment

[Daily Kos Morning Roundup]( A morning roundup of worthy pundit and news reads, brought to you by Daily Kos. [Click here to read the full web version.]( - [What GOP Voters Have Told Me Since Trump’s Indictment]( What GOP Voters Have Told Me Since Trump’s Indictment, Sarah Longwell, The Atlantic They’re open to an alternative to the former president, but his rivals can’t touch him Over the course of hundreds of focus groups I’ve conducted, a large chunk of GOP voters have made clear that they would be content with a nominee other than Trump in 2024—preferably a “Trump without the baggage”–style candidate. They like that the former president is, in their words, a “fighter.” But after eight years of Trump tweets, taunts, and tantrums, they’re open to—in many cases eager for—new alternatives. So how is Trump on pace to run away with the nomination? ... As the base sours on DeSantis, it’s coming home to Trump. When I convened a group of GOP voters the day after Trump’s indictment, their assessment was nearly unanimous: “It’s a complete distraction and it’s a waste of time.” “It’s being blown out of proportion.” “Just ridiculous and a terrible direction for us to go.” We asked one group whether they had donated to Trump before the indictment. Only three out of nine had, but after the indictment, all nine said they would. None said another indictment or arrest would change their minds. And none thought Trump should drop out. - [Daily Kos t-shirts are going fast. Get one now and show your support for progressive, independent media!]( - [Don’t count on the House discharge rule to raise the debt limit]( Don’t count on the House discharge rule to raise the debt limit, Sarah A. Binder, Brookings House Democrats turned heads on Capitol Hill last week when news surfaced of their proposed procedural gambit to raise the federal government’s debt limit. Relying on the century-old House discharge rule, minority party Democrats aim to force a vote on a measure to lift the debt ceiling. The discharge rule, however, is ill-suited for swift, surgical strikes, and Democrats will struggle to secure the necessary support of a handful of Republicans. While nothing can be ruled out, the discharge rule is unlikely to resolve today’s impasse. - [The Trendlines DeSantis Doesn’t Want to See]( The Trendlines DeSantis Doesn’t Want to See, Seth Masket, Politico A new survey of Republican grassroots leaders shows Trump making real gains. Two months ago, my polling of GOP county chairs across the country had some ominous signs for Trump. Despite his vaunted grip on the party, he was basically tied with DeSantis among those who had committed to backing a presidential candidate. DeSantis also seemed to have far more room to grow his support. But a lot has happened since then. Trump sharpened his attacks against DeSantis, who has largely declined to respond before formally jumping into the race. Perhaps most important, the former president was indicted by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg over his hush money payment to a porn star. The response to the indictment from rank-and-file GOP voters, according to recent polls, was a substantial improvement in Trump’s standing, with many Republicans rallying around Trump after the indictment. Would grassroots leaders active within the party move in the same way as other GOP voters, or were they more inured to the news cycle and take a different view of Trump’s legal challenges? The short answer: They moved, with DeSantis support softening and Trump a beneficiary. - [What Could Turn Biden’s Reelection Upside Down]( What Could Turn Biden’s Reelection Upside Down, David Frum, The Atlantic The X factors of the 2024 presidential race X factors don’t appear out of nowhere. WikiLeaks had dumped one load of Russian-hacked materials in summer 2016, as the presidential race warmed up; no surprise the group released another load in the fall, priming Comey’s announcement. For an audio clip to emerge offering evidence of Trump’s sexual misconduct was no great surprise either, even though the crude boasting in his own voice temporarily jolted senior Republican leaders such as Paul Ryan and Mike Pence. For 2024, too, we can discern the outline of possible X factors. Still, the idea of a thing is never the same as the thing itself, which cannot be fully understood until it materializes. One potential factor is Joe Biden’s health. Only about a third of Americans feel confident that Biden is up to the physical and mental demands of the presidency, according to the most recent Washington Post/ABC poll. This pervasive unease has already created a potential opportunity for Biden’s Republican opponent, whoever that may be… Xfactors apply not just to Biden. The Republican campaign faces problems of its own: Trump is not much younger than Biden. But the risks that most thickly crowd around the GOP’s leading candidate are legal, not medical. Trump has already been indicted by the Manhattan district attorney. What if he’s convicted in that case, or indicted in additional possible cases being pursued by the Department of Justice and a Georgia district attorney? Trump’s indictments have, thus far, generated a rally effect among his co-partisans, widening his lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to 30 points in the month after. Trump’s famous confidence that his supporters would follow him even if he shot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue seems vindicated. - [This Is What Would Happen if Biden Ignores the Debt Ceiling and Calls McCarthy’s Bluff]( This Is What Would Happen if Biden Ignores the Debt Ceiling and Calls McCarthy’s Bluff, Robert Hockett, The New York Times Given the stakes, it’s important to explore the likely consequences if Mr. Biden ignores the debt ceiling — how doing so would affect our economy and the markets, our retirement savings and even our constitutional system. There is encouraging news for the president and those who follow our first Treasury secretary, Alexander Hamilton, in believing we must pay our legally incurred debts. We are far better off doing so, even if it means short-term chaos if Mr. Biden allows the June 1 deadline to come and go. First, consider the consequences if the United States stopped paying its debts and defaulted on June 1. This would undo what Hamilton and his successors sought to ensure: a national credit rating beyond cavil or reproach. We would see a great tottering — if not worse — of U.S. banking, U.S. financial markets and the world’s capital markets. - [What Would the G.O.P. Plan Actually Do to the Budget?]( What Would the G.O.P. Plan Actually Do to the Budget?, Margot Sanger-Katz and Alicia Parlapiano, The New York Times House Republicans want to cut federal spending — and they just passed a bill that would do that. But they don’t want to cut defense spending. They don’t want to cut veterans’ health care spending. They don’t want to cut Medicare or Social Security. Their bill, which would raise the country’s borrowing limit for a year in exchange for a decade of spending reductions, does not include many specifics. It achieves most of its savings with spending caps for discretionary spending — the part of the budget allocated annually by Congress that is not automatic like Social Security payments — but it doesn’t say what discretionary programs should be cut and which ones should be spared… The charts above show how exempting big categories of spending would make the budget caps more draconian. Universal discretionary caps would cut spending by an average of 18 percent over a decade, compared with what’s expected if current levels grew according to inflation. But with defense, veterans’ care and homeland security exempted, the caps would result in cutting the rest of the discretionary budget by more than half. - [Nazi cavorting anti-vaxxer, and now candidate for president, RFK Jr., is suing Daily Kos for protecting our community. 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