A special memo from Daily Kos Political Director David Nir

Friend, two years ago—right from the earliest days of the Biden administration—I sent Daily Kos readers a series of emails about how the 2022 midterm election was shaping up to buck historical trends and could actually be good for Democrats. I probably don't need to remind you how things turned out: - Democrats expanded their majority in the Senate - We very nearly held on to the House despite Republicans jamming through some breathtakingly gerrymandered maps in red states - And we made major gains in key offices downballot, like governors, state attorneys general, secretaries of state, and state legislatures It was a damn good election. I don't write this to toot my own horn, but to say this: 2024 could be a blue wave election. [I'll explain more in a moment, but first I need to ask: Can you start a $5 monthly recurring donation to Daily Kos to support our work and help make 2024 a blue wave election?]( [DONATE MONTHLY]( [Can't donate monthly? Click here to donate $20.24 one time to help secure victory in 2024.]( The 2024 election is more than a year and a half away. That's a long way off, and there’s much we don’t know. There is something we do know, though: Democrats are absolutely crushing it in special elections so far this year. Special elections [strongly correlate with and are often predictive of]( coming general elections. To put it simply, the party that does well in special elections throughout a given election cycle tends to do well in the next general election: Strong Democratic performances in special elections in 2017-2018 presaged the 2018 blue wave, just as strong Republicans performances in special elections in 2009-2010 were followed by the 2010 red wave. Right now, Democrats aren't just doing well—they're [absolutely dominating]( special elections across the country. [Does this mean Democrats are a sure bet to win in 2024? No, absolutely not. But it's an early piece of evidence that we may be on the cusp of a major victory—and we need to position ourselves to take advantage of a blue wave should one materialize. That's why I'm asking you to start a $5 monthly recurring donation to Daily Kos right now.]( [DONATE MONTHLY]( [Can't donate monthly? Click here to donate $20.24 one time.]( Thank you, David Nir, Political Director Daily Kos P.S. Want to stay up to date on how 2024 is shaping up? [Sign up for the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest.]( It's the most comprehensive roundup of downballot elections news anywhere on the internet and we make it available to anyone who wants it for free. Click here to sign up now. P.P.S. Don't believe me when I say that Daily Kos had a good read on how 2022 was going to go? Check out just how right we were about the midterms way back in the spring of 2021: Friend, if cleaning up the smoldering wreckage left behind by Donald Trump is Priority #1 for Democrats—and it is!—then we need to crush Mitch McConnell to get the job done right. McConnell just declared that "[100% of my focus is on stopping this new administration]("—and this is no idle threat. McConnell threw down the gauntlet against President Obama in 2009 and, while he didn't keep his promise to make Obama "[a one-term president](," he was very successful at stymieing the Democratic agenda. So, I want to take a minute to give you a quick preview of next year's battle for the Senate, which will determine whether McConnell stays in the minority—or whether he gains veto power over everything Joe Biden and the Democrats want to do. [Before I do, though, you should know that you can get all the latest news on the all the key Senate races in the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest—the most comprehensive downballot elections news digest in the country. Click here to sign up now and we'll deliver it to you every weekday morning—for free!]( [SIGN UP NOW]( First, the very basics: - After the amazing runoff victories in Georgia, Democrats just barely control the evenly-divided 50-50 Senate, thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris's tie-breaking vote. Republicans need to net just a single seat to take back the majority. - 34 Senate seats are on the ballot next year, including two seats that Democrats won in special elections last year—Raphael Warnock's in Georgia and Mark Kelly's in Arizona. Both are now on the ballot again for their regularly scheduled elections. - Of those 34 seats, 20 are held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. This might sound like a great situation for Democrats, since they have fewer seats to defend and room to go on offense, but that doesn't factor in the headwinds of a normal midterm election, when the party that controls the White House typically loses seats in Congress. Worse still, Republicans are rushing to get [new voter suppression laws]( on the books ahead of next year's election, and they're gunning to gerrymander every district they can get their claws on. But all is not lost! Far from it, in fact—there are signs that next year's midterms could actually be good for Democrats: - Firstly, [Republicans are eating their own](, as Trumpists work to destroy those deemed insufficiently loyal to their Dear Leader. - Secondly, Republicans senators are [retiring in key states](, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania. - And maybe most importantly, the economy is [beginning to boom]( as the country emerges from the coronavirus pandemic. Since voters tend to associate the economy with the party in the White House, that's good news for Team Blue. So, with all of that in mind, here's a color-coded rundown of races most likely to determine the future of the Senate: - Pennsylvania (open seat): The Keystone State has been a swing state for decades, so seeing Pennsylvania at the top of the list probably doesn't need much explanation. Two-term incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey has already announced his retirement, so this seat would be a gain for Democrats if they win it. - North Carolina (open seat): Another Republican retirement—three-term Sen. Richard Burr—makes North Carolina the Democrats' second-best shot at flipping a seat from red to blue. North Carolina has emerged as a crucial swing state in recent years, and if Democrats can win here and in Pennsylvania, there's a good chance they'll retain their majority. - Georgia (Democratic): Sen. Raphael Warnock flipped this seat from the Republicans in a stunning special election runoff, but now he has to run for a full six-year term next year. Georgia's razor-thin margins for Democrats have provoked an enormous backlash from Trumpists in the Peach State, and a new voter suppression law passed this year has drawn national condemnation and a flurry of lawsuits. Warnock is sure to be the focus of an intense campaign of attacks from Republicans. - Arizona (Democratic): Sen. Mark Kelly is the second Democratic incumbent who won a special election in the last election and now faces a regularly scheduled election in 2022. Arizona is a historically Republican state that's rapidly shifted toward Democrats over the past decade. Next year's election will be the first test of Democratic strength in the post-Trump era, and Republicans have already declared Kelly to be one of their top targets. - Wisconsin (Republican): Two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson is on the retirement [watch list](, but this race will be a close one whether or not he runs. - Florida (Republican): Florida is always a swing state and Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is seeking a third term. [Want to follow where each of these races go from here? Then please sign up to get the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest delivered to your inbox each weekday at 8 AM Eastern sharp.]( [SIGN UP NOW]( Thank you, David Nir, Political Director Daily Kos If you wish to donate by mail instead, please send a check to Daily Kos, PO Box 70036, Oakland, CA, 94612. Contributions to Daily Kos are not tax deductible. Sent via [ActionNetwork.org](. 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