Make No Mistake, the Investigation of Donald Trump and the Stormy Daniels Scheme Is Serious

[Daily Kos Morning Roundup]( A morning roundup of worthy pundit and news reads, brought to you by Daily Kos. [Click here to read the full web version.]( - [Make No Mistake, the Investigation of Donald Trump and the Stormy Daniels Scheme Is Serious]( Make No Mistake, the Investigation of Donald Trump and the Stormy Daniels Scheme Is Serious, Ryan Goodman and Andrew Weissmann, The New York Times Though it may be tempting to do so, it is a mistake to assess the Manhattan district attorney’s investigation of Donald Trump by comparing its relative severity with those of myriad other crimes possibly committed by him. That is not how state and federal prosecutors will — or should — be thinking about the issue of charging Mr. Trump, or for that matter, any other defendant. Prosecutors are trained to consider whether a case can be brought — in other words, is there proof beyond a reasonable doubt to support a conviction? They also consider whether a case should be brought — principally, is the crime one that is typically charged by the office in like circumstances? Put another way: Is bringing the charge consistent with the rule of law that requires treating likes alike? Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, would be well within his discretion in determining that the answer to those questions is yes and therefore supports charging Mr. Trump in connection with any crimes arising from an effort to keep Stormy Daniels from disclosing an alleged affair to the electorate before the 2016 election. - [Stop Overthinking It: An Indictment Would Be Bad For Trump]( Stop Overthinking It: An Indictment Would Be Bad For Trump, Alexander Burns, Politico Yes, the Trump diehards can be expected to rise up against Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. But that still wouldn’t earn him a single additional vote. The widely expected indictment of Donald Trump in Manhattan has all the makings of a political disaster for him. It should be the climactic event in a yearslong saga involving marital infidelity, sleazy financial dealings and now the first-ever criminal charge against a former American president. Naturally, the question arises: Could this actually be good for Trump? ... At another point in his political life, perhaps Trump might have turned this case into rich fodder for a comeback. Not now. For all his unusual strengths, Trump is defined these days more by his weaknesses — personal and political deficiencies that have grown with time and now figure to undermine any attempt to exploit the criminal case against him. - [Daily Kos revenue is down, and we may not be able to continue producing the quality of work you have come to expect from us. Donations from our readers and activists is our largest source of income. Please donate $5 to support independent, progressive news.]( - [The Trump Investigation You Probably Haven’t Heard About]( The Trump Investigation You Probably Haven’t Heard About, Kimberly Wehle, Bulwark Plus: A handy list to sort out the ones you have heard of, including the case expected to result in his arrest this week. Even among the especially well informed, five has been the magic number of criminally tinged investigations implicating former President Donald J. Trump: First, there is the investigation by the Department of Justice (DOJ) into the classified documents found at Mar-a-Lago. [lead investigator Jack Smith] Second, there is DOJ’s investigation of the effort to stymie the transfer of power following the 2020 election, including the January 6th insurrection at the U.S. Capitol… [Jack Smith] Third is the investigation—led by Fani Willis, the district attorney for Fulton County, Georgia—into election fraud in that state, arising from Trump’s having asked the Georgia secretary of state to “find” enough votes to hand him an Electoral College win there. Fourth is the set of investigations (some criminal, some civil) into Trump’s various corporate enterprises… [Alvin Bragg, Letitia James each in separate probes] Fifth is the long-running investigation Bragg is leading into the alleged campaign hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels. This is the case that could dominate the headlines this week: Trump himself said on Saturday that he expects to be “ARRESTED ON TUESDAY” and called on his followers to “PROTEST.” But as it turns out, there’s a sixth—this one involves both DOJ and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and it implicates conduct since Trump left office and after he was expelled from Twitter and launched his own social media platform, Truth Social. - [‘The Circus Continues’: For Trump, Legal Woes Resurrect Old Habits]( ‘The Circus Continues’: For Trump, Legal Woes Resurrect Old Habits, Michael C. Bender, The New York times The former president strengthened his political position in recent weeks, but an impetuous response to his potential indictment could alienate voters he will need to win back the White House. Donald J. Trump, the former prime-time reality TV star known for his love of big stages and vast crowds, has embraced a more humbling and traditional style on the campaign trail in recent months…. But now Mr. Trump faces a likely indictment in New York in the coming days, and how he responds to this moment could determine whether he continues to stabilize his standing as the Republican presidential front-runner or whether he further alienates the voters he will need to return to the White House. The result will help answer a pressing question about his candidacy for many Republican primary voters: Can Mr. Trump show enough restraint to persuade moderate Republicans and independent swing voters to choose him over President Biden in 2024? - [Unlike a certain tacky red hat, Daily Kos hats are made in the USA and union decorated. Click here to get yours now.]( - [Why Stormy Daniels matters]( Why Stormy Daniels matters, Judd Legum, Substack At their heart, presidential elections are relatively simple. Voters learn things about each candidate and then use that information to select their choice — including whether or not to vote at all. A campaign is a process of shaping that information environment through ads, events, policy announcements, and other activities. There are some basic rules about how federal campaigns operate. If you spend money to benefit your campaign, it must be publicly reported. If you run an ad, you must disclose that your campaign paid for the ad. The underlying principle of these rules is transparency — voters have a right to know what you are saying and doing to get elected. If Trump is charged, it will be because prosecutors believe he violated the law in order to hide relevant information from voters in the days leading up to the 2016 election. After Election Day, Trump allegedly engaged in more crimes, including falsifying business records, to cover up his actions. - [‘An indictment would help Trump!’ is wholly premature]( ‘An indictment would help Trump!’ is wholly premature, Jennifer Rubin, The Washington Post In all this, I did not expect the voice of sanity come from former New Jersey Republican governor and occasional Trump ally Chris Christie. “What else do you expect Trump to say ... than to say it helps his campaign,” he said on ABC News’s “This Week” on Sunday. “But, being indicted I don’t think ever helps anybody.” This view should be taken seriously, coming from a former prosecutor and longtime observer of Trump’s psyche. Unfortunately, the media seems almost entirely credulous in airing the exact view Trump wants pushed — as happened too often in the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. That raises the possibility of a self-fulfilling impact in the near term. His poll numbers might spike, but that says little about his ability to navigate through a primary season under the shadow of a criminal case, and possibly civil or criminal charges stemming from other current investigations. There’s no shortage of Trump-related legal matters that merit sober analysis. ICYMI: Popular stories from the past week you won't want to miss: - [A billboard truck is driving around Mar-a-Lago showing Tucker Carlson's text about Trump]( - [All along the front line, Russia's big offensive looks like a big fizzle]( - [One of what looked like George Santos' lies is true—but it only makes him look more suspicious]( Want even more Daily Kos? Check out our podcasts: - [The Brief: A one-hour weekly political conversation hosted by Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld]( - [The Downballot: Daily Kos' podcast devoted to downballot elections. New episodes every Thursday]( Want to write your own stories? 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