Joe Biden’s Terrible Approval Rating May Not Matter

[Daily Kos Morning Roundup]( [Abbreviated Pundit Roundup]( is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet. - [Joe Biden’s Terrible Approval Rating May Not Matter]( The president’s approval rating is abysmal. But he can still win. Six months before the most fateful election of our lifetimes, we are entering that moment in the campaign when model makers rush onstage hawking their presidential predictions. And, no, we are not talking about hobbyists who put ships in a bottle or glue together plastic replicas of World War II fight planes. These model makers are election theorists from academia, economic forecasting firms, and polling websites who offer their presidential forecasts based on their proprietary formulas—many of which are blithefully unconcerned with the identities of the actual White House contenders. To oversimplify a bit, these mathematical approaches to political soothsaying involve combining some variant of presidential approval ratings, economic growth numbers, the inflation rate, prior election returns, and an exclusive blend of herbs and spices to reveal who is going to win long before anyone votes. Almost nothing scares Democrats more than those ominous three words: “presidential approval rating.” But context is badly needed. - [Unlike a lot of the news outlets you read, Daily Kos is NOT owned by a billionaire. Help keep it that way by donating monthly]( - [The less people know, the more they like Trump]( Republican voters find comfort in their intentional ignorance A lot of Trump supporters are not really voting for Trump. They’re voting for their own fears and prejudices. Trump is a channel for their grievances, and when it comes to the specifics of what Trump says and does, even his supporters don’t always buy in. So what do they do about Trump’s immorality and Nazi-style rhetoric? They ignore it or laugh it off. They don't want the specifics of Trump’s negative behavior to taint their vague but positive feelings about him. - [The New York trial is wearing down Trump — and it shows]( His nodding off in court is a sign that he is weaker and more vulnerable than ever. On the very first day of Trump’s falsifying business records trial, New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman reported, “Even as a judge was hearing arguments on last-minute issues in a criminal case that centers on salacious allegations and threatens to upend his bid for the presidency, Mr. Trump appeared to nod off a few times, his mouth going slack and his head drooping onto his chest.” (That earned her a glare from Trump.) Pundits inside the courtroom chime in to inform Americans when he nods off. You can believe Trump’s sleepiness has become noticeable when Fox News propagandists try to cover for him by praising his naps. - [Geoff Duncan: Why I’m voting for Biden and other Republicans should, too]( Donald Trump has disqualified himself through his conduct and his character I get it. No one likes paying higher taxes, and these protests are unsettling. But the last year of the Trump presidency was hardly a time of tranquillity. His handling of the pandemic was erratic, including at one point musing about consuming disinfectants. His reliance on incendiary phrases such as “when the looting starts, the shooting starts” fueled racial unrest. His infamous march to St. John’s Episcopal Church across the street from the White House, flanked by top aides (including Barr) and brandishing a Bible, further set the nation ablaze. Trump has shown us who he is. We should believe him. To think he is going to change at the age of 77 is beyond improbable. - [Money isn’t enough to smooth the path for Republican candidates hoping to retake the Senate]( Frustrated by the seemingly endless cash flowing to Democrats, Republicans aiming to retake the Senate have rallied around candidates with plenty of their own money. The goal is to neutralize Democrats’ roughly 2-to-1 financial advantage, among the few bright spots for a party defending twice as many Senate seats as Republicans this year. But it also risks elevating untested candidates who might not be prepared for the scrutiny often associated with fiercely contested Senate campaigns. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, GOP Senate candidates are being pressed on whether they live in the state. In Montana, the party’s Senate candidate recently admitted lying about the circumstances of a gunshot wound he sustained. And in Ohio, the Republican contender pitched himself as financially independent but now may be turning to donors for help repaying loans he made to his campaign. - [Doesn't matter if you're a coffee or tea person—it's sure to taste better out of a Daily Kos mug. Get yours now!]( - [What Must Prosecutors Prove in Trump’s NY Trial?]( Some in-the-weeds questions on which the New York Trump trial depends. But what about the standard of proof for the object offense? Recently, legal commentators on Twitter have been debating whether Bragg must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump committed that “other crime” as well, or just that he intended to commit it... One way to think about this is to consider the burden of proof for the offenses listed under A and B. Must Bragg prove beyond a reasonable doubt that both sets of offenses occurred? Or must he prove that A occurred beyond a reasonable doubt, and prove Trump’s intent to commit one or all of the offenses in B—but not the fact that the offenses themselves occurred? This distinction might seem nitpicky. But given the high burden of proof in a criminal case—proof beyond a reasonable doubt, as opposed to the lower preponderance of evidence standard in civil cases—it could be crucial. If Bragg must prove both A and B beyond a reasonable doubt, and the jury retains some uncertainty as to whether the object offenses under B actually occurred, that could sink the entire case. On the other hand, if Bragg must only prove A beyond a reasonable doubt, along with the intent to commit B, that potentially leaves prosecutors with more wiggle room to secure a conviction. Jurors might not buy with 99 percent certainty that the object crime was committed, but they could still vote to convict if they believe the intent was there. As an initial matter, the text of Section 175.10 suggests that what’s required is proof of intent, rather than of the object crime. Want to write your own stories? [Log in]( or [sign up]( to post articles and comments on Daily Kos, the nation's largest progressive community. Follow Daily Kos on [Facebook](, [Threads](, and [Instagram](. Thanks for all you do, The Daily Kos team We're not asking for much Over the past 12 months, the average donation to Daily Kos has been just $9.44. These donations may seem small, but they're a big deal to us. In fact, they are our largest source of income. We literally couldn't do the work we do without them. Can you join thousands of other Daily Kos readers and help us with a donation of $9.44 right now? [Chip in $9.44]( If you wish to donate by mail instead, please send a check to Daily Kos, PO Box 70036, Oakland, CA, 94612. Contributions to Daily Kos are not tax deductible. 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