Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are led by savvy financial analysts. But when it comes to forecasting the economy â not to toot my own horn â Iâm better. Let me show you why Iâm the best at what I do⦠And reveal how you can leverage me to profit in todayâs markets. For a [â¦] Youâre receiving this email as part of your subscription to Andrew Zatlinâs Moneyball Daily [Unsubscribe]( [Moneyball Daily] Bloombergâs Top Economic Forecaster? Thatâs Me February 09, 2024 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are led by savvy financial analysts. But when it comes to forecasting the economy â not to toot my own horn â Iâm better. Let me show you why Iâm the best at what I do⦠And reveal how you can leverage me to profit in todayâs markets. [CLICK HERE TO LAUNCH VIDEO OR READ THE FULL TRANSCRIPT BELOW »»]( For a transcript of this video, see below. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Bloombergâs Top Economic Forecaster? Thatâs Me Itâs time for a team meeting. You see, youâre on the Moneyball Economics team. And Iâm guessing you joined the team in order to get unique insights into the stock market and the economy⦠Insights that can help you earn market-beating returns and build long-term wealth. As your âcoach,â I sure hope Iâve steered you toward those goals. And today, I want to give you an inside look at the playbook I use. The Importance of Hiring Data OK, enough with the sports analogies. Letâs talk about hiring data. As you know, itâs the centerpiece of my economic forecasting. And itâs a big reason why Bloomberg ranked me No. 1 among all economists â not JP Morgan, not Goldman Sachs, and not any of those talking heads you see on television. Hiring data gives unparalleled visibility into how the economy, and often how the stock market, will fare in the weeks and months ahead. And thatâs for a simple reason. Companies that are heading in the right direction hire more people. Companies headed in the wrong direction donât. This is true for entire sectors, too. But thereâs another factor that relates to why hiring data can be so important. And it has to do with something that happened last week⦠I Beat the Experts A week ago, payroll numbers were released. As you can see by the chart below, the consensus projected the number to be around 168,000. Meanwhile, I was considerably more bullish, projecting a number closer to 280,000. The number that was released? More than 300,000. This indicated a strong economy and sent the Fed scrambling. It also demonstrated that Iâve got a much more accurate idea of whatâs going on out there compared to the âexperts.â But if you recall from a recent video, this 300,000 number shouldnât have come as a shock. January payrolls are historically high. And weâre in an environment where companies are operating lean and mean. The thing is, I donât expect this type of number to last. And thatâll play a role in the types of returns you can expect to earn in the stock market. Let me explain⦠Slow and Steady Growth Ahead You see, based on my hiring data, Iâm forecasting lower payroll numbers for the rest of the year â lower than 300,000, anyway. And that will translate to slow and steady growth â still growth, though! â for the stock market in 2024. Donât get me wrong. Iâm still expecting a double-digit climb this year. But itâs not likely to happen in a sudden burst. Hereâs a look at hiring activity for companies in the S&P 500: Toward the end of 2023, hiring levels jumped. But now, theyâre starting to level off. This is indicative of a slow and steady approach to hiring that companies are taking. And it means weâll need to be patient with respect to earning returns from the market. Of course, no matter which direction hiring activity is trending, we can always identify certain winners and losers⦠Whoâs Hiring? For instance, a lot of companies are betting big on Artificial Intelligence (AI). And theyâre hiring because of it. Intel (INTC) makes computer servers, which will handle a lot of AI-related tasks: Micron Technology (MU) makes memory chips and is expected to have similar AI-related responsibilities as Intel: Then thereâs Microsoft (MSFT), which is diving head-first into AI. Itâs even incorporating the technology into its upcoming computers: As AI transitions from a niche idea to a mainstream technology, companies that invest heavily in it could deliver their investors significant returns. Meanwhile⦠The Magic is Back at Disney A look at my hiring data tells me that consumers are back. And theyâre spending non-stop. One of the largest consumer-facing companies is Disney (DIS), whose hiring has ticked up: Following some shuffling at the executive level, and subsequent layoffs in an attempt to get lean and mean, Disney is ready to expand and grow its business. If youâre looking to add some âDisney magicâ to your portfolio, Iâd say youâre on the right track. Weâre in it to win it. Zatlin out. In it to win it, [Andrew Zatlin] Andrew Zatlin
Moneyball Economics Copyright 2024 © Moneyball Economics, All rights reserved. You signed up on
[]( Our mailing address is:
Moneyball Economics
1125 N. Charles Street
Baltimore, Maryland 21201
[Update Subscription Preferences]( | [Unsubscribe from this list]( | [Terms & Privacy]( RISK NOTICE: All investing comes with risk. That includes the investments teased in this letter. You should never invest more than you can afford to lose. Please use this research for the purpose that it's intended â as research only. You should consult a professional financial advisor before ever taking a position in any securities you see herein. DISCLAIMERS: The work included in this communication is based on diverse sources including SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and information published on funding platforms, but the views we express and the conclusions we reach are our own. As such, this content may contain errors, and any investments described in this content should be made only after reviewing the filings and/or financial statements of the company, and only after consulting with your investment advisor. Actual results may differ significantly from the results described herein. Furthermore, nothing published by Moneyball Economics, Inc should be considered personalized financial advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Moneyball Economics is an independent provider of education, information and research on publicly traded companies, and as such, it accepts no direct or indirect compensation from any companies or third parties mentioned in any of our letters, reports or updates