Bearish Data Can Hide Bullish Signals

Last Friday, we examined where consumers are spending their money. Now, it’s time to focus on our money… More specifically, how we can use shoppers’ spending habits to identify money-making opportunities for ourselves! For a transcript of this video, see below. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Bearish Data Can Hide […] You’re receiving this email as part of your subscription to Andrew Zatlin’s Moneyball Daily [Unsubscribe]( [Moneyball Daily] Bearish Data Can Hide Bullish Signals December 19, 2023 Last Friday, we examined where consumers are spending their money. Now, it’s time to focus on our money… More specifically, how we can use shoppers’ spending habits to identify money-making opportunities for ourselves! [CLICK HERE TO LAUNCH VIDEO OR READ THE FULL TRANSCRIPT BELOW »»]( For a transcript of this video, see below. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Bearish Data Can Hide Bullish Signals Welcome back to our deep dive into consumer spending, where I show you how we can leverage this data to identify high-potential investment opportunities. In [Part 1]( I shared some unconventional data I use to get my ideas. Today, I’d like to examine that data more closely… Including one category that tells me how much consumers are willing to spend, and where. A Look at the Data The information I’m referring to is import data. If you recall on Friday, I showed a snapshot of four sectors where imports have plummeted: As you can see, spending in these sectors is down significantly this year. And all four sectors represent products and goods that are imported from other countries. Spending on clothing, for example, is down $30 billion year-over-year. Spending on computers, meanwhile, is down $19 billion. Between these four categories, consumers have spent almost $100 billion less this year than in 2022. Yet perhaps surprisingly, I see some bullish signs here. Let me explain… Piecing Together the Positives The spending data above reveals trends that happened over the past ten months. But let’s look at more recent spending in these categories — specifically, for the month of October. Look at clothing. It’s down 22% for the last ten months compared to last year. But in October, spending was down just 5%. Computer sales are down 16% for the last ten months compared to last year. But in October, sales were actually up 10% compared to a year ago. The same reversal happened with household items. Sales are down 19% from the last ten months, but were up 2% in October. We’re seeing a slight reversal when it comes to consumer spending. But importantly, this isn’t sector-specific. It’s across the board: This chart shows consumer imports in billions of dollars this year compared to last year. Each bar represents import spending for a single month. And the number in white is the difference compared to the same month a year ago. Notice that while spending has been down every month this year, the difference was much more drastic early in 2023. The past few months have seen import spending closer to 2022 levels. Any reason for this reversal? What’s Going on Here? When it comes to clothing, production costs are coming down. So retail prices are coming down, too. That’s encouraging consumers to put more clothes in their carts. Meanwhile, a lot of people purchased computers during the pandemic, when there wasn’t much to do but surf the Web. But that is going on four years ago. Laptops purchased in 2020 and even 2021 might be getting a little stale. And consumers might be itching for an upgrade. In any case, consumers are starting to spend like it’s 2022 again. And the import data reflects this shift. If you’re looking to get ahead of mainstream investors, jump into sectors like clothing and household goods. There are profits to be made. But be careful… Not So Fast... Not every category is trending in the right direction. Camping and sporting goods sales are down 23% so far this year. And even recent data suggests this sector isn’t ready to rally. Sales are down 15% in October alone. And it’s possible that sales continue to head south in 2024. This is a sector I’d be bearish on. If you’re a Moneyball Pro subscriber, I’ll share my favorite way to take advantage of this bearish outlook and position yourself for a chance to double your money. We’re in it to win it. Zatlin out. FOR MONEYBALL PRO READERS ONLY > [LEARN MORE]( < In it to win it, [Andrew Zatlin] Andrew Zatlin Moneyball Economics Copyright 2023 © Moneyball Economics, All rights reserved. You signed up on []( Our mailing address is: Moneyball Economics 1125 N. Charles Street Baltimore, Maryland 21201 [Update Subscription Preferences]( | [Unsubscribe from this list]( | [Terms & Privacy]( RISK NOTICE: All investing comes with risk. 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