Sex, Drugs, and Market-Beating Returns

Gettin’ drunk... gettin’ high… laying down ten grand at the roulette table in Vegas. To some, this may just sound like party time… But to me, activities like these are powerful economic indicators. And today, I’ll explain how investors can use them to make money. For a transcript of this video, see below. This transcript […] You’re receiving this email as part of your subscription to Andrew Zatlin’s Moneyball Daily [Unsubscribe]( [Moneyball Daily] Sex, Drugs, and Market-Beating Returns December 15, 2023 Gettin’ drunk... gettin’ high… laying down ten grand at the roulette table in Vegas. To some, this may just sound like party time… But to me, activities like these are powerful economic indicators. And today, I’ll explain how investors can use them to make money. [CLICK HERE TO LAUNCH VIDEO OR READ THE FULL TRANSCRIPT BELOW »»]( For a transcript of this video, see below. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Sex, Drugs, and Market-Beating Returns My strategy to identify profitable investment opportunities always starts with the consumer. After all, consumer spending is foundational to our economy. And all that money has to flow somewhere — to specific sectors and specific companies. Understanding where this money is going hinges on looking at the right data. But surprise, surprise: most of the “experts” out there don’t analyze the correct information. But we do. At Moneyball Economics, we’re focused on reading the data that matters, the data that’s going to give the right insights and lead to the right investment decisions. So in Part 1 of this two-part series, I want to show you the two data sets I use to guide my investing strategy… What’s the Consumer Up To? But let’s start with an important question: What is the consumer doing? Recent retail-spending data came out and surprised the consensus. Essentially, consumers spent more than the experts had forecasted — well, most experts. My spending forecasts reported in Bloomberg were on par with what actually transpired. How do I get my finger closer to the pulse than the guys at Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan? Simple: I look at different data. You see, every month, you might hear about data released as part of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). This is a look at the average consumer’s mindset when it comes to things like spending and saving money. The thing is, that data is compiled using responses from just 400 consumers. That’s it! That’s not enough for me — and it’s why I look at other spending-related data… Sex, Drugs, and Gambling I track countless data points each month, including consumer spending on things like alcohol, drugs, and gambling. It’s a category I refer to as “vice spending.” And it’s one that’s become reliable when getting a picture of the overall economy. For starters, vice spending isn’t niche. It cuts across all ages, genders, and earners. Additionally, it involves millions of data points, giving me a far more powerful view on how consumers are faring. Vice spending is also, by and large, discretionary. If consumers are spending money on these things, it can signal to me that they’re feeling good and are able to purchase products or experiences that aren’t essential. The Importance of Import Data But to make an actual investment decision, I’ve got to get more granular. And to do that, I focus on import data. In other words, I look at what goods are coming in from offshore. Because today’s imports equal tomorrow’s sales. Here’s a look at consumer imports in billions of dollars this year compared to last year: Essentially, each bar represents import spending for a single month. And the number in white is the difference compared to that same month a year ago. January 2023, for example, had $5 billion less in import spending than January 2022. Notice how import levels have been down all year. And perhaps surprisingly, this decline is concentrated in four key sectors… Clothing, for example, is down $30 billion year-over-year. Household items like appliances, rugs, and furniture is down $19 billion. And camping/sporting goods is down $16 billion. Hold the Phone At first blush, your reaction might be to avoid these sectors. But hold on a minute. Because buried in this data are a few bullish signals… And to find them, we need to get even more granular. We’ll dive into how to do that next week. For now, though, check out my Pro investment idea below, and remember — we’re in it to win it. Zatlin out. FOR MONEYBALL PRO READERS ONLY > [LEARN MORE]( < In it to win it, [Andrew Zatlin] Andrew Zatlin Moneyball Economics Copyright 2023 © Moneyball Economics, All rights reserved. You signed up on []( Our mailing address is: Moneyball Economics 1125 N. 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