❓ Did you make these investment mistakes?

​[view in browser](=)​ Did you make these investment mistakes? ​ I sat up in the middle of the night in cold sweats thinking about, one of those I can't believe people do this kind of mistakes. Let's work on avoiding that, shall we? Speaking of mistakes...people always want to talk about wins, but what about the truth? Our most recent weekly call inside [Contrarian Cashflow]( had two members spill on deals they walked away from, money lost, and lessons learned, so you can avoid them. If you want to listen, get in here. [Explore Cashflow]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Today in < 10 minutes we’re going to talk about: - The stupidest ways people lost money over the last 3 years - Where else we see the bubble about to pop - 5 lessons to make sure you don’t purchase the next $1.3M jpeg rock --------------------------------------------------------------- INTRO JPEG Rocks are still dumb… ​ How do we know we are coming into a bear market? The following examples in this email would be a damn good start. This email is a dose of reality. It’s a splash of cold water in the face of FOMO. It’s a reminder of the lunacy of tulip mania’s. It’s a call to arms to being boring and skipping frantic. It’s also an incredible moment to say… I told you so Mfers. Ahhhh nothing more satisfying. Sidenote: let’s just skip over all the times I was horridly wrong now shall we? Do you know the best way to repeat history? Don’t study it. Do you know the best way to lose money? Don’t learn from losses. A Walk Down Idiocy Lane: Exhibit A: Metaverse land The idea: Buy virtual land, like “real land.” Then you do what you do with normal land. You have tenants, use signage, pay for home improvements… whatever. Small itty-bitty details like, land has value because it is inherently limited, should just be ignored. Or that there are currently not just 1 metaverse but a million versions competing for where we will send our brains while our oversized corpses sit in VR basements. I even had an investor tell me I didn’t understand reality because I refused to invest in “prime” real estate in some earth website nonsense. ​ He wasn’t alone, in 2021 $501 million was invested (do we really call it that?) into virtual properties on four metaverse platforms, Sandbox, Decentraland, Cryptovoxels, and Somnium. Stories lined up about gents like this guy, Samuel Arnold, who bought land for $300 in virtual-ville and made $60,000 on it. Also Samuel… you like you'd own land in the matrix. ​ Or the guy who bought virtual land next to Snoop Dogg for $450,000. I mean you can’t make up tv this good. Now what has happened? Well, the metaverse land bought for $100’s of millions is worth approximately pennies on the dollar. �€‹ The moral of the story. Until we have a few solidified realms with massive users, strong use cases, independent validation for the cost of land that does not involve only price speculation, I would stay away from virtual land grabbing. --------------------------------------------------------------- SPONSORED BY ONENINE Never Worry About Your Website Again Managing your website can be tricky, complicated, annoying...we get it. Doesn't have to be the case. [OneNine,]() gives you end to end website management services across Shopify, Wordpress, and Webflow. They've made our lives a heck of a lot easier. Get $250 off, with OneNine. [Check them Out]() --------------------------------------------------------------- CONTINUED Exhibit B: JPEG Rocks The idea: Buy a jpeg Rock, there are only 100 of them. Somehow you owning it makes you smarter, better looking and gains clout. Or something like that. Then if you can tear your eyes away from the glorious beauty of your rock in order to sell it, you may just make millions. Truth: The only thing brilliant about this project are the marketers. Even if my child drew this rock, I’d be hesitant putting it on the fridge. And yet, these clever devils not only sold 100 of these, the made a % of all sales on go forward basis. ​ I have an internet acquaintance Tom Osman who [sold a JPEG rock for $1.3M]() that he bought for a couple grand. Yes, that is a true story. First of all, kudos to Tom because I wouldn’t have paid $100 for these things and thus am $1.3M poorer. However, once I started seeing these rocks trade for thousands, then hundreds of thousands of dollars, and finally millions, I had to get in on the fun. �€‹ I love a good troll amongst buds. I really should go and collect money from Tom given my Airbnb house is now worth $3.3M and his rock is worth $100-300k. Which tbh still seems ridiculously high. ​ But the fascinating part were the comments section in twitter. Always a dangerous place. My timeline was littered with NGMI: Not Gonna Make It and “Have fun staying poor,” spoofs. Yet I have a sneaking suspicion these guys would rather own the house long term. IDK just guessing. ​ The lesson is if it looks like a duck, talks like a duck and walks like a duck… it’s probably a duck. Exhibit C: See Them All Market bubbles have happened as far back as humans have had a medium for exchange aka money, and an ability to buy more things than we can use at any given time. Market bubbles do one thing really well, they take money from the impatient and transfer them to the patient. If you don't want to repeat the NFT craze, or the bitcoin plummet go study these bubbles. You'll start to recognize the tune. ​ --------------------------------------------------------------- NOW WHAT Did we learn our lesson? Speculative bets that will come crashing down usually share the same characteristics. Once you’ve seen two or three, it’s hard not to recognize them. In investing we say, they rhyme. How can you tell a falling knife? Here’s my framework for whether something may be a bubble or not. I call it CRISN. Pronounced like christening a big, huge bubble of a baby. CRISN - Cult enthusiasm - Is there a group of raving “fans” who have an emotional attachment to the price of the good going up? Not raving fans for the product itself, but who benefit if the cost rises? Think bitcoin HODL’ers or multiverse land hype men. ​ - Retail vs Institutional players - Do you see Blackrock, Goldman, and Hedge Funds investing and take long term bets? Or is it mostly your local tech guy or mom next door? ​ - Idiot theory - Everyone says they want to get in now, but they want to sell to the “next idiot”? It’s like a giant game of musical chairs. ​ - Short-term holders - Will people hold onto these for decades like Amazon stock? Or are they quick in and out? ​ - No inherent growth besides price - Does the product or asset become more valuable because it’s growing sales, generating cashflow, increasing its utility? Or is the only play that someone else thinks it’s worth more later? ​ Ray Dalio explains the theory of bubbles quite well in a more numerical way. He looks at rolling prices and trends across 6 areas: - Prices vs Norm ​ - Prices are Discounting unsustainable conditions ​ - New Buyers In ​ - Bullish Sentiment ​ - Lots of Leverage for Purchases ​ - Buyers are Overextending Purchases ​ What are the next rocks (get it) to drop? Let’s get into that next week. For now, can you read the signs? Reply to me which areas of the market you think are in a bubble, we’ll compile all your responses. And hold your wallet closer than an ape with a banana right now, too many people getting hungry. --------------------------------------------------------------- CONTRARIAN EXTRAS The Not So Boring Section - $525m? No big deal - Cox nabs [Axios]() in a $525m deal. - Buying It Up - [Blackstone](=)finished its biggest Real Estate raise ever. - Make better (money) choices - [Personal Capital]()makes money management, well, easy. --------------------------------------------------------------- How I made my first $10,000,000 Inspired by Casey Neistat's video on how to get 10 million subscribers, I realized it's so similar to making your first $10 Million. So, I decided to make this video for y'all... Watch and I’ll tell you the exact steps I took to hit each level from five all the way to eight figures. ​ SPOILER ALERT. Once again, this is not some BS video saying it’s going to be easy. You will have to do the work. But you can copy my homework…if you want to copy my strategies. *This week's YouTube video is sponsored by our friends at [Flippa](. ​ [Watch the Breakdown](=) Stack cash + avoid idiocy, Codie & Contrarian Team --------------------------------------------------------------- ​ Share Contrarian Thinking, Win Cool Stuff! Invite friends - get free stuff. Get cool stuff. When someone you refer subscribes, you get the prize. That dad hat, tho! [( [facebook]() [twitter]() [whatsapp]( [email]() PS: You have referred 0 people so far [⚡️ by SparkLoop](=) ​ --------------------------------------------------------------- What Did You Think of This Week's Newsletter? ​[💲💲💲💲💲F*cking Killer]()​ ​[💲💲💲Meh]()​ ​[💲Do Better]()​ --------------------------------------------------------------- ​Disclaimer – This is the “Be an adult” section. Everything mentioned above isn’t advice, just a recount of what I did. That said: This article is presented for informational purposes only. The opinions stated here are not intended to recommend any investment or provide tax advice. Neither are they an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any current or future investment vehicle managed or sponsored by Codie Ventures, LLC or its affiliates. All material presented in this newsletter is not to be regarded as investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. Day trading and investing do involve risk, so caution must always be utilized. We cannot guarantee profits or freedom from loss. You assume the entire cost and risk. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. We recommend consulting with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. If you choose to invest with or without seeking advice from such an advisor or entity, then any consequences resulting from your investments are your sole responsibility. 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