General Trading Discussion Digest for Tuesday September 12, 2017

6 new threads, 13 replies and 5 library entries from 10 authors in the "General Trading Discussion" community ... After been inserted in MT4 , what is supposed to tell me ? ------------------------------ [elias []saravanja] [trader] eliassaravanja@gmail.com ... [Complete Currency Trader]() [General Trading Discussion]( [Post New Message](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER-generaltradingdiscussion@ConnectedCommunity.org) [] Sep 12, 2017 started 12 hours ago, [Elias Saravanja]( (0 replies) [currency strength ?]( [external link to thread view]( 1. [After been inserted in MT4 , what is supposed to...](#m0) Elias Saravanja started 20 hours ago, [Maryna MURRAY]( (0 replies) [EURNZD BREAKOUT TRADE - 12 SEPT]( [external link to thread view]( 2. [Wow, NZD super strong in London session and what...](#m1) [post has attachment] Maryna MURRAY started 20 hours ago, [Arunas Bucevicius]( (2 replies) [Breakout]( [external link to thread view]( 3. [Hello, Breakout is not the best strategy for...](#m2) [post has attachment] Arunas Bucevicius 4. [Hi Aranus, The best strategy is the one you...](#m3) James Edward 5. [Hi Arunas, I don't trade or really care for...](#m4) Maryna MURRAY started 21 hours ago, [Maryna MURRAY]( (0 replies) [NZDJPY - LONDON OPEN - 12 SEPT]( [external link to thread view]( 6. [I mentioned in August that we should expect JPY...](#m5) [post has attachment] Maryna MURRAY started 21 hours ago, [Maryna MURRAY]( (0 replies) [GBPNZD - 100P in 3 seconds with London open - 12 SEP]( [external link to thread view]( 7. [Whoop!  I posted a trade idea that we should...](#m6) [post has attachment] Maryna MURRAY started 22 hours ago, [Stephen Rosser]( (1 reply) [adding breakout box to chart]( [external link to thread view]( 8. [Hi I have downloaded cct breakout box to MQL4...](#m7) Stephen Rosser 9. [Watch the video that Bryan posted on the...](#m8) Maryna MURRAY started yesterday, [Maryna MURRAY]( (6 replies) [GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT]( [external link to thread view]( 10. [Hi Maryna, Great to see you making such good...](#m9) James Edward 11. [Thnx James... You've just redirected me as to...](#m10) Joe Costanzi 12. [Hey Joe, I don't just trade the 5min chart with...](#m11) Maryna MURRAY 13. [Thnx Maryna... I know the BreakOut Box is not...](#m12) Joe Costanzi 14. [Great Joe and the price is the same on all time...](#m13) Maryna MURRAY 15. [Hello every one. My name is Irena , i am...](#m14) [post has attachment] Irena started yesterday, [Anush Mohafez]( (4 replies) [central banks positioned behind prime brokerages taking off volatility?]( [external link to thread view]( 16. [Sent from Mail <](#m15) Dan Roberts 17. [Hi James, Although i don't claim to know...](#m16) Dave Henderson 18. [Hi Dave, just got back home and don't have long...](#m17) James Edward started 3 months ago, [Brian Stickney]( (43 replies) [Please Introduce Yourself]( [external link to thread view]( 19. [Hi everyone, My name is Francisco Silveira...](#m18) Francisco Silveira [] [top](#toca) [next](#m1) 1. [currency strength ?]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_077d63c0-a317-45be-a113-29fa9a61c4a9@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: currency strength ) [Reply to Sender]( [Elias Saravanja]( Sep 12, 2017 11:25 AM [Elias Saravanja]( After been inserted in MT4 , what is supposed to tell me ? ------------------------------ [elias []saravanja] [trader] eliassaravanja@gmail.com [yellowknife] [NT] [1 867 873 8634] [CANADA] ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m0) [next](#m2) 2. [EURNZD BREAKOUT TRADE - 12 SEPT]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_e0695eb9-5878-46ec-8752-f602b184f069@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: EURNZD BREAKOUT TRADE - 12 SEPT) [Reply to Sender]( [Maryna MURRAY]( Sep 12, 2017 3:58 AM | [attachment][view attached]( [Maryna MURRAY]( Wow, NZD super strong in London session and what a London open! I placed 3 trades with London open using CSI and they were all strong and positive trades. Great day for trading and with momentum returning to the market, the next 6 months are going to be excellent! ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m1) [next](#m3) 3. [Breakout]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_d0a1662f-526d-4cb5-9e89-d0b6fbbb9c06@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: Breakout) [Reply to Sender]( [Arunas Bucevicius]( Sep 12, 2017 3:21 AM | [attachment][view attached]( [Arunas Bucevicius]( Hello, Breakout is not the best strategy for trading! You can check statistics. ------------------------------ Arunas Bucevicius ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m2) [next](#m4) 4. [Re: Breakout]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_f1e2b9d5-9e4f-4c27-8109-5014bc432e39@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: Breakout) [Reply to Sender]( [James Edward]( Sep 12, 2017 3:36 AM [James Edward]( Hi Aranus, The best strategy is the one you are able to stick to without much effort. For some people that's a breakout. There is no such thing as "the best strategy" per se. This is one of the reasons most traders fail... they think the system is critical and they need the best one. The system (whatever one you use) is the least important part of trading and has the least bearing on your profit. ------------------------------ James Edward London ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( ------------------------------------------- Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 03:21 From: Arunas Bucevicius Subject: Breakout Hello, Breakout is not the best strategy for trading! You can check statistics. ------------------------------ Arunas Bucevicius ------------------------------ [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m3) [next](#m5) 5. [Re: Breakout]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_d2c8098f-8ec2-4f64-b7e1-660c5d402a17@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: Breakout) [Reply to Sender]( [Maryna MURRAY]( Sep 12, 2017 3:46 AM [Maryna MURRAY]( Hi Arunas, I don't trade or really care for statistics, even the statistics saying that 95% or whatever fail at trading. I respect your opinion, but if you just look at all the breakout trades I take in a month and I don't even post them all, I'm doing extremely well with the London and US breakouts with the open of the sessions. Have you tried the breakout box trades to validate your comments? Give it a try please. Kind regards and if you need any help to make a success of breakouts, let us know please. Maryna ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( ------------------------------------------- Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 03:21 From: Arunas Bucevicius Subject: Breakout Hello, Breakout is not the best strategy for trading! You can check statistics. ------------------------------ Arunas Bucevicius ------------------------------ [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m4) [next](#m6) 6. [NZDJPY - LONDON OPEN - 12 SEPT]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_f0fbdc93-8b13-4252-9931-b3da18291cd1@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: NZDJPY - LONDON OPEN - 12 SEPT) [Reply to Sender]( [Maryna MURRAY]( Sep 12, 2017 3:03 AM | [attachment][view attached]( [Maryna MURRAY]( I mentioned in August that we should expect JPY weakness from the 3rd week of Aug and this is indeed playing out well.  NZD strong and JPY super weak with London open with a huge spike to the upside for some great pips. ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m5) [next](#m7) 7. [GBPNZD - 100P in 3 seconds with London open - 12 SEP]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_278057e8-3e05-446f-a1e6-460a316bca4f@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: GBPNZD - 100P in 3 seconds with London open - 12 SEP) [Reply to Sender]( [Maryna MURRAY]( Sep 12, 2017 2:28 AM | [attachment][view attached]( [Maryna MURRAY]( Whoop!  I posted a trade idea that we should watch this pair this week and it played out brilliantly with London open this morning. A shooting star formation formed at resistance on the 15min chart that was a great signal to sell and then the pair fell 100pips in a matter of 3 seconds! Great way to start a trading day with the London open using the breakout box. ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m6) [next](#m8) 8. [adding breakout box to chart]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_12620741-0500-495f-aaae-47fe6a100a2c@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: adding breakout box to chart) [Reply to Sender]( [Stephen Rosser]( Sep 12, 2017 1:29 AM [Stephen Rosser]( Hi I have downloaded cct breakout box to MQL4 folder and to expert advisor associated with MQL4 folder,but when I open my mt4 platform the cct breakout is not in the expert advisor location on the platform [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m7) [next](#m9) 9. [Re: adding breakout box to chart]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_86ae27a1-87b5-4e93-a72c-7e34fce509e5@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: adding breakout box to chart) [Reply to Sender]( [Maryna MURRAY]( Sep 12, 2017 1:55 AM [Maryna MURRAY]( Watch the video that Bryan posted on the installation and don't forget to restart your platform after you have uploaded the indicator. ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( ------------------------------------------- Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 01:28 From: Stephen Rosser Subject: adding breakout box to chart Hi I have downloaded cct breakout box to MQL4 folder and to expert advisor associated with MQL4 folder,but when I open my mt4 platform the cct breakout is not in the expert advisor location on the platform [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m8) [next](#m10) 10. [Re: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_c7486a13-e201-4a6e-985a-07d6b8e76c2b@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT) [Reply to Sender]( [James Edward]( Sep 12, 2017 4:19 AM [James Edward]( Hi Maryna, Great to see you making such good use of the breakout strategy. It's nice for people to see that trading strategies do not need to be complicated. Simple works. Consistency is the key, so thank you for posting. But, I'm going to make some comments for the good of the community, so please don't take this as though I'm picking on you. I just want to make sure this forum remains a place of factual information that will help newer traders. Most forums are filled with myths and false information and new traders don't know what they don't know and therefore can't distinguish helpful information from misinformation. I want to make sure CCT only teaches reality and becomes a professional place for people to learn. You just happen to be one of the most active posters at the moment so you've caught my attention :-) You mentioned the weekend gap was a bullish sign that predicted bullishness for the day ahead. My question is why would that be the case? Financial markets have been studied in more detail than perhaps anything else in the world due to their ability to create wealth for those who understand them. As such, every pattern and theory has been tested, retested, and then tested some more, over hundreds of markets and hundreds of years. So we know which patterns are real and which aren't. Gaps have no predictive power whatsoever and should be ignored. Think about what is happening behind the scenes. Why does price move? Something like 90% of all price movement happens without any transactions taking place. There are no buyers or sellers, and no exchange of currencies taking place. Most price movements in the market are the result of triangular equilibrium. The price movements that result from actual buying or selling, is mostly non speculative. Someone is exchanging currency for utilitarian reasons. They are not looking at charts and have no idea what shapes or gaps exist. And the exchange of money is usually agreed days or weeks in advance. So a large move on Monday, is usually the result of an agreed exchange made before the weekend and before any gaps appeared. Like I said, this is not a criticism. You are not alone in thinking certain shapes have relevance in the market, but for most of them it isn't true and I have a duty to help you and others determine fact from fiction. Out of interest, none of the popular technical analysis patterns have ever shown any predictive value - support/resistance, Fibonacci, Elliot wave, Gann, candlestick shapes, moving averages etc. You name it, they've never shown to have any value of prediction. They can be useful for traders and help you become profitable, not because they predict anything or have any relevance to market mechanics, but because they provide you with clearly defined rules to remain consistent with, and random coin flip systems are profitable if traded with consistency. So I'm not knocking those things for their value to an individual trader, but it is worth being aware of the real reason why they work, and it isn't because of prediction, it's because they give you a framework to work in (and in some cases they give you the confidence to act). So valuable, but not predictive. And contrary to more popular belief, short term price movements are not noise. They're the only time frames that have been proven to be predictable. We can predict short term price movements because of our knowledge of market mechanics, how liquidity is distributed either side of the market (depth), and how market orders interact with limit orders... all of which comes together to say "price is more likely to move in the direction of least liquidity". That is a fact. And as liquidity is concentrated in a very narrow bracket either side of the market, prediction is only possible over very short distances of a matter of pips. Stanford university did a good study on this and found that price prediction over short distances could be achieved with up to 81% accuracy, all because of trading in the direction of least liquidity, and only when a significant imbalance existed. I hope that helps you and others. I know much of what I say can be controversial to many people, and I'm not trying to be confrontational. Trading is a complex topic, but you are proving that markets can be traded profitably even with simple strategies. All I'm trying to do here is keep us on track to stick with provable facts so new traders do not get distracted with inaccurate ideas. Any questions about any of this, please don't hesitate to ask. ------------------------------ James Edward London ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( ------------------------------------------- Original Message: Sent: 09-11-2017 14:38 From: Maryna MURRAY Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Wow, this breakout box is really amazing and took this trade with London open and only closed it now after nearly 12 hours for 120p in a slow moving market. Nevertheless, it teaches us patience and to stay in trades when they are moving in our favor! Note the "gap" it made bullish last night in US session and that was a sure sign of bullishness to come today. ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m9) [next](#m11) 11. [Re: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_8bf69ef2-d43e-4c74-a721-50ce49dd4697@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT) [Reply to Sender]( [Joe Costanzi]( Sep 12, 2017 8:13 AM [Joe Costanzi]( Thnx James... You've just redirected me as to why I should persist with the shorter time frames. The way I understand it, and I may be wrong, is that price patterns do happen, are the resultant of human behaviour and can be determined only after the fact.  They are in no way predictive of the next move, however if you adopt a price pattern to act on, provided you always act in the same way, you turn out an eventual winner.  A Head & Shoulders is not predictive of the price going down, but if you trade it only when the price goes down and you put a tight stop on it so that you're out of the trade if the price moves otherwise, and if you further protect your account by a trailing SL then your would eventually end up winning. I tend to trade the Day, the 4 hour and recently started on 1 Hour charts on the days I'm at home and can monitor the trading day (Mondays, Tuesdays).  I use the Currency Strength Indicator as my guide, and have configured the Dashboard to those times...  I trade a reversal bar towards the end of a recovery phase, with a SL at the other end of the time reversal bar, with the full understanding that these are in no way predictive. The Currency Strength Indicator enables me first to be able to determine quickly which the strong and weak currencies are so that I only trade strong vs weak, and secondly to maintain consistency.  My wins are at last more than my losses. I am in no doubt that my improvement in results is the result of achieving consistency. The shorter time frames are too fast for me and I have gone on drawdowns trying to trade those while learning.  I risk 0.5% of the account so it is not so painful.  I have traded dummy accounts in the past but realised that the absence of pain on losing gave me a wrong attitude. The reason I fail is, as you often said James, that by the time I decide to enter, the momentum is expiring. Reading Maryna's posts I note that one way of getting used to trading on the 5min charts is via the Breakout Box which, I am trying to get familiar with.  Again using Currency Strength Indicator, DashBoard as my guides to choosing the 'right trades'... I would like to thank everyone for their posts and suggestions. Just thought I'd stick my ample nose into the conversation. JoeBC ------------------------------ Joe Costanzi United Kingdom ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( ------------------------------------------- Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 04:19 From: James Edward Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Hi Maryna, Great to see you making such good use of the breakout strategy. It's nice for people to see that trading strategies do not need to be complicated. Simple works. Consistency is the key, so thank you for posting. But, I'm going to make some comments for the good of the community, so please don't take this as though I'm picking on you. I just want to make sure this forum remains a place of factual information that will help newer traders. Most forums are filled with myths and false information and new traders don't know what they don't know and therefore can't distinguish helpful information from misinformation. I want to make sure CCT only teaches reality and becomes a professional place for people to learn. You just happen to be one of the most active posters at the moment so you've caught my attention :-) You mentioned the weekend gap was a bullish sign that predicted bullishness for the day ahead. My question is why would that be the case? Financial markets have been studied in more detail than perhaps anything else in the world due to their ability to create wealth for those who understand them. As such, every pattern and theory has been tested, retested, and then tested some more, over hundreds of markets and hundreds of years. So we know which patterns are real and which aren't. Gaps have no predictive power whatsoever and should be ignored. Think about what is happening behind the scenes. Why does price move? Something like 90% of all price movement happens without any transactions taking place. There are no buyers or sellers, and no exchange of currencies taking place. Most price movements in the market are the result of triangular equilibrium. The price movements that result from actual buying or selling, is mostly non speculative. Someone is exchanging currency for utilitarian reasons. They are not looking at charts and have no idea what shapes or gaps exist. And the exchange of money is usually agreed days or weeks in advance. So a large move on Monday, is usually the result of an agreed exchange made before the weekend and before any gaps appeared. Like I said, this is not a criticism. You are not alone in thinking certain shapes have relevance in the market, but for most of them it isn't true and I have a duty to help you and others determine fact from fiction. Out of interest, none of the popular technical analysis patterns have ever shown any predictive value - support/resistance, Fibonacci, Elliot wave, Gann, candlestick shapes, moving averages etc. You name it, they've never shown to have any value of prediction. They can be useful for traders and help you become profitable, not because they predict anything or have any relevance to market mechanics, but because they provide you with clearly defined rules to remain consistent with, and random coin flip systems are profitable if traded with consistency. So I'm not knocking those things for their value to an individual trader, but it is worth being aware of the real reason why they work, and it isn't because of prediction, it's because they give you a framework to work in (and in some cases they give you the confidence to act). So valuable, but not predictive. And contrary to more popular belief, short term price movements are not noise. They're the only time frames that have been proven to be predictable. We can predict short term price movements because of our knowledge of market mechanics, how liquidity is distributed either side of the market (depth), and how market orders interact with limit orders... all of which comes together to say "price is more likely to move in the direction of least liquidity". That is a fact. And as liquidity is concentrated in a very narrow bracket either side of the market, prediction is only possible over very short distances of a matter of pips. Stanford university did a good study on this and found that price prediction over short distances could be achieved with up to 81% accuracy, all because of trading in the direction of least liquidity, and only when a significant imbalance existed. I hope that helps you and others. I know much of what I say can be controversial to many people, and I'm not trying to be confrontational. Trading is a complex topic, but you are proving that markets can be traded profitably even with simple strategies. All I'm trying to do here is keep us on track to stick with provable facts so new traders do not get distracted with inaccurate ideas. Any questions about any of this, please don't hesitate to ask. ------------------------------ James Edward London ------------------------------ Original Message: Sent: 09-11-2017 14:38 From: Maryna MURRAY Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Wow, this breakout box is really amazing and took this trade with London open and only closed it now after nearly 12 hours for 120p in a slow moving market. Nevertheless, it teaches us patience and to stay in trades when they are moving in our favor! Note the "gap" it made bullish last night in US session and that was a sure sign of bullishness to come today. ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m10) [next](#m12) 12. [Re: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_bc0c5b2b-02c2-4cac-8211-bc7908e9f5ba@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT) [Reply to Sender]( [Maryna MURRAY]( Sep 12, 2017 8:47 AM [Maryna MURRAY]( Hey Joe, I don't just trade the 5min chart with London open and it depends on my strategy at the time. I post my trades on the time-frames easiest for forum members to view. With London open for instance, I will use the M1 until it breaks through and then I start moving to higher time frames as the trades go my way. Today, with the momentum, I ended up going to even higher time-frames.  I also took a NZDJPY buy with London on the 1-minute at 79.10 and ended up going to my H4 chart to take profits at 80.20. I more of less use my "momentum/volatility" strategy with London open. Thanks for your inputs! ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( ------------------------------------------- Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 08:13 From: Joe Costanzi Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Thnx James... You've just redirected me as to why I should persist with the shorter time frames. The way I understand it, and I may be wrong, is that price patterns do happen, are the resultant of human behaviour and can be determined only after the fact.  They are in no way predictive of the next move, however if you adopt a price pattern to act on, provided you always act in the same way, you turn out an eventual winner.  A Head & Shoulders is not predictive of the price going down, but if you trade it only when the price goes down and you put a tight stop on it so that you're out of the trade if the price moves otherwise, and if you further protect your account by a trailing SL then your would eventually end up winning. I tend to trade the Day, the 4 hour and recently started on 1 Hour charts on the days I'm at home and can monitor the trading day (Mondays, Tuesdays).  I use the Currency Strength Indicator as my guide, and have configured the Dashboard to those times...  I trade a reversal bar towards the end of a recovery phase, with a SL at the other end of the time reversal bar, with the full understanding that these are in no way predictive. The Currency Strength Indicator enables me first to be able to determine quickly which the strong and weak currencies are so that I only trade strong vs weak, and secondly to maintain consistency.  My wins are at last more than my losses. I am in no doubt that my improvement in results is the result of achieving consistency. The shorter time frames are too fast for me and I have gone on drawdowns trying to trade those while learning.  I risk 0.5% of the account so it is not so painful.  I have traded dummy accounts in the past but realised that the absence of pain on losing gave me a wrong attitude. The reason I fail is, as you often said James, that by the time I decide to enter, the momentum is expiring. Reading Maryna's posts I note that one way of getting used to trading on the 5min charts is via the Breakout Box which, I am trying to get familiar with.  Again using Currency Strength Indicator, DashBoard as my guides to choosing the 'right trades'... I would like to thank everyone for their posts and suggestions. Just thought I'd stick my ample nose into the conversation. JoeBC ------------------------------ Joe Costanzi United Kingdom ------------------------------ Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 04:19 From: James Edward Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Hi Maryna, Great to see you making such good use of the breakout strategy. It's nice for people to see that trading strategies do not need to be complicated. Simple works. Consistency is the key, so thank you for posting. But, I'm going to make some comments for the good of the community, so please don't take this as though I'm picking on you. I just want to make sure this forum remains a place of factual information that will help newer traders. Most forums are filled with myths and false information and new traders don't know what they don't know and therefore can't distinguish helpful information from misinformation. I want to make sure CCT only teaches reality and becomes a professional place for people to learn. You just happen to be one of the most active posters at the moment so you've caught my attention :-) You mentioned the weekend gap was a bullish sign that predicted bullishness for the day ahead. My question is why would that be the case? Financial markets have been studied in more detail than perhaps anything else in the world due to their ability to create wealth for those who understand them. As such, every pattern and theory has been tested, retested, and then tested some more, over hundreds of markets and hundreds of years. So we know which patterns are real and which aren't. Gaps have no predictive power whatsoever and should be ignored. Think about what is happening behind the scenes. Why does price move? Something like 90% of all price movement happens without any transactions taking place. There are no buyers or sellers, and no exchange of currencies taking place. Most price movements in the market are the result of triangular equilibrium. The price movements that result from actual buying or selling, is mostly non speculative. Someone is exchanging currency for utilitarian reasons. They are not looking at charts and have no idea what shapes or gaps exist. And the exchange of money is usually agreed days or weeks in advance. So a large move on Monday, is usually the result of an agreed exchange made before the weekend and before any gaps appeared. Like I said, this is not a criticism. You are not alone in thinking certain shapes have relevance in the market, but for most of them it isn't true and I have a duty to help you and others determine fact from fiction. Out of interest, none of the popular technical analysis patterns have ever shown any predictive value - support/resistance, Fibonacci, Elliot wave, Gann, candlestick shapes, moving averages etc. You name it, they've never shown to have any value of prediction. They can be useful for traders and help you become profitable, not because they predict anything or have any relevance to market mechanics, but because they provide you with clearly defined rules to remain consistent with, and random coin flip systems are profitable if traded with consistency. So I'm not knocking those things for their value to an individual trader, but it is worth being aware of the real reason why they work, and it isn't because of prediction, it's because they give you a framework to work in (and in some cases they give you the confidence to act). So valuable, but not predictive. And contrary to more popular belief, short term price movements are not noise. They're the only time frames that have been proven to be predictable. We can predict short term price movements because of our knowledge of market mechanics, how liquidity is distributed either side of the market (depth), and how market orders interact with limit orders... all of which comes together to say "price is more likely to move in the direction of least liquidity". That is a fact. And as liquidity is concentrated in a very narrow bracket either side of the market, prediction is only possible over very short distances of a matter of pips. Stanford university did a good study on this and found that price prediction over short distances could be achieved with up to 81% accuracy, all because of trading in the direction of least liquidity, and only when a significant imbalance existed. I hope that helps you and others. I know much of what I say can be controversial to many people, and I'm not trying to be confrontational. Trading is a complex topic, but you are proving that markets can be traded profitably even with simple strategies. All I'm trying to do here is keep us on track to stick with provable facts so new traders do not get distracted with inaccurate ideas. Any questions about any of this, please don't hesitate to ask. ------------------------------ James Edward London Original Message: Sent: 09-11-2017 14:38 From: Maryna MURRAY Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Wow, this breakout box is really amazing and took this trade with London open and only closed it now after nearly 12 hours for 120p in a slow moving market. Nevertheless, it teaches us patience and to stay in trades when they are moving in our favor! Note the "gap" it made bullish last night in US session and that was a sure sign of bullishness to come today. ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ [] [top](#toca) [previous](#m11) [next](#m13) 13. [Re: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT]( [Reply to Group](mailto:COMPLETECURRENCYTRADER_generaltradingdiscussion_769a932a-6efd-446d-ac61-21fbb1a85b8d@ConnectedCommunity.org?subject=Re: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT) [Reply to Sender]( [Joe Costanzi]( Sep 12, 2017 9:03 AM [Joe Costanzi]( Thnx Maryna... I know the BreakOut Box is not all you use.  I was just saying that the BreakOut Box might be a way for me to learn to track momentum on the 5min charts. I tried using Scalper and tended to fumble on that though there was one EURNZD which exploded into a nice 3:1 profit though with a large Spread hence risky.  I then tried using ATR_EA which I've been happier with but only achieved reasonable success on the 1Hr charts.  I found the 5min charts much too fast for me to catch onto.  Must persist however. The BreakOut box, I have been using another version of for over a year, before joining CCT and I initially found that too 'hit and miss' until I joined CCT and am able to identify strength and weakness more quickly. I shall use that for now in order to get used to speed of movement. Regards... JoeBC ------------------------------ Joe Borg Costanzi United Kingdom ------------------------------ [Reply to Group Online]( [View Thread]( [Recommend]( [Forward]( ------------------------------------------- Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 08:47 From: Maryna MURRAY Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Hey Joe, I don't just trade the 5min chart with London open and it depends on my strategy at the time. I post my trades on the time-frames easiest for forum members to view. With London open for instance, I will use the M1 until it breaks through and then I start moving to higher time frames as the trades go my way. Today, with the momentum, I ended up going to even higher time-frames.  I also took a NZDJPY buy with London on the 1-minute at 79.10 and ended up going to my H4 chart to take profits at 80.20. I more of less use my "momentum/volatility" strategy with London open. Thanks for your inputs! ------------------------------ Maryna MURRAY ------------------------------ Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 08:13 From: Joe Costanzi Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Thnx James... You've just redirected me as to why I should persist with the shorter time frames. The way I understand it, and I may be wrong, is that price patterns do happen, are the resultant of human behaviour and can be determined only after the fact.  They are in no way predictive of the next move, however if you adopt a price pattern to act on, provided you always act in the same way, you turn out an eventual winner.  A Head & Shoulders is not predictive of the price going down, but if you trade it only when the price goes down and you put a tight stop on it so that you're out of the trade if the price moves otherwise, and if you further protect your account by a trailing SL then your would eventually end up winning. I tend to trade the Day, the 4 hour and recently started on 1 Hour charts on the days I'm at home and can monitor the trading day (Mondays, Tuesdays).  I use the Currency Strength Indicator as my guide, and have configured the Dashboard to those times...  I trade a reversal bar towards the end of a recovery phase, with a SL at the other end of the time reversal bar, with the full understanding that these are in no way predictive. The Currency Strength Indicator enables me first to be able to determine quickly which the strong and weak currencies are so that I only trade strong vs weak, and secondly to maintain consistency.  My wins are at last more than my losses. I am in no doubt that my improvement in results is the result of achieving consistency. The shorter time frames are too fast for me and I have gone on drawdowns trying to trade those while learning.  I risk 0.5% of the account so it is not so painful.  I have traded dummy accounts in the past but realised that the absence of pain on losing gave me a wrong attitude. The reason I fail is, as you often said James, that by the time I decide to enter, the momentum is expiring. Reading Maryna's posts I note that one way of getting used to trading on the 5min charts is via the Breakout Box which, I am trying to get familiar with.  Again using Currency Strength Indicator, DashBoard as my guides to choosing the 'right trades'... I would like to thank everyone for their posts and suggestions. Just thought I'd stick my ample nose into the conversation. JoeBC ------------------------------ Joe Costanzi United Kingdom Original Message: Sent: 09-12-2017 04:19 From: James Edward Subject: GBPJPY - LONDON BREAKOUT TRADE 11 SEPT Hi Maryna, Great to see you making such good use of the breakout strategy. It's nice for people to see that trading strategies do not need to be complicated. Simple works. Consistency is the key, so thank you for posting. But, I'm going to make some comments for the good of the community, so please don't take this as though I'm picking on you. I just want to make sure this forum remains a place of factual information that will help newer traders. Most forums are filled with myths and false information and new traders don't know what they don't know and therefore can't distinguish helpful information from misinformation. I want to make sure CCT only teaches reality and becomes a professional place for people to learn. You just happen to be one of the most active posters at the moment so you've caught my attention :-) You mentioned the weekend gap was a bullish sign that predicted bullishness for the day ahead. My question is why would that be the case? Financial markets have been studied in more detail than perhaps anything else in the world due to their ability to create wealth for those who understand them. As such, every pattern and theory has been tested, retested, and then tested some more, over hundreds of markets and hundreds of years. So we know which patterns are real and which aren't. Gaps have no predictive power whatsoever and should be ignored. Think about what is happening behind the scenes. Why does price move? Something like 90% of all price movement happens without any transactions taking place. There are no buyers or sellers, and no exchange of currencies taking place. Most price movements in the market are the result of triangular equilibrium. The price movements that result from actual buying or selling, is mostly non speculative. Someone is exchanging currency for utilitarian reaso