The Edge: What Higher Ed Needs to Know About the Radical Demographic Shift on the Horizon

Catch up on the coming “sansdemic” economy, short-term credentials, and the debts that leave students with stranded credits. ADVERTISEMENT [Advertisement]( [logo] Was this newsletter forwarded to you? [Please sign up to receive your own copy.]( You’ll support our journalism and ensure that you continue to receive our emails. [Read this newsletter on the web](. I’m Goldie Blumenstyk, a senior writer at The Chronicle covering innovation in and around academe. Here’s what I’m thinking about this week. Summertime 🎶 ... and The Edge is making some changes. Welcome to the unofficial start of summer — and with it a temporary new format for this newsletter. Call it a post-vaccine reflection period, or a winding down from the frenzy-of-a-pandemic format. This week, and then every other week until fall, I’ll send an abridged version devoted to a few recommended readings. It’ll be a chance for all of us (me included!) to stop, think, and catch up before the next academic year smacks us in the face. So here we go. ADVERTISEMENT [Advertisement]( Subscribe to The Chronicle The Chronicle’s award-winning journalism challenges conventional wisdom, holds academic leaders accountable, and empowers you to do your job better — and it’s your support that makes our work possible. [Subscribe Today]( • Been hearing a lot lately about employers’ difficulty filling jobs right now? Just wait. Tracking mass retirements of baby boomers, low birth rates, and declining levels of labor-market participation among millennials and Gen Xers, experts at the economic-modeling firm Emsi have predicted a radical demographic shift that will ripple through higher ed, as well as the rest of the economy. The Emsi report on this “sansdemic” (meaning without people, or in this case, without enough people) is called “[The Demographic Drought]( The firm isn’t the first to document these phenomena, but its report is a helpful compendium and analysis of some key trends. Coupled with the latest [findings from the U.S. Census Bureau on the nation’s slowing population growth]( (partly the result of a slowdown in immigration), the report makes for some useful reading for anyone thinking about where higher ed might be headed. • Short-term credentials are getting lots of attention these days, especially from higher-ed leaders who see them as potentially more appealing to college-wary students — and from politicians considering whether to extend Pell Grants and other student aid to more non-degree programs. New America’s recent report “[The Short-Term Credentials Landscape]( describes what several prior studies reveal about the value of these credentials, and what policy makers at all levels still need to understand about their related flaws and inequities. Among the many points that caught my attention: the finding that “even if certificate programs are theoretically stackable, they are rarely stacked in practice.” That’s partly or largely attributable to colleges’ academic policies, the report says. And in many instances, researchers have found wide disparities by students’ gender, race, and ethnicity in various credentials’ economic payoffs. • The “stranded credits” that, because of old debts, block former students from accessing their transcripts, remain a problem. [I’ve reported before]( thanks to work by Ithaka S+R, how some 6.6 million students were affected. Now, as the nonprofit consultancy continues to plug away at this issue, it has released “[A State-by-State Snapshot of Stranded Credits Data and Policy]( which might offer some pathways out of this quagmire. If you’ve heard me on the topic of obstacles returning students face, you know I’ve been beating this old-debt drum for a while now. What especially caught my eye here was that in states where average debt balances are relatively low, but many more students are affected, Ithaka S+R suggests that “debt-forgiveness programs may be a promising option.” And from what the folks there tell me, that’s exactly what they hope to do next: Run a pilot in a single state to test a model for such debt forgiveness. Stay tuned for more as that rolls out. Got a tip you’d like to share or a question you’d like me to answer? Let me know, at goldie@chronicle.com. If you have been forwarded this newsletter and would like to see past issues, [find them here](. To receive your own copy, free, register [here](. If you want to follow me on Twitter, [@GoldieStandard]( is my handle. Goldie’s Weekly Picks COVID-19 AND THE PUBLIC TRUST [One College’s Mission: Vaccinate 120,000 People]( By Emma Pettit and Francie Diep [image] The pandemic deepened perceptions that higher education is doing damage. Can the University of Florida change minds? THE FACULTY [Academic Freedom Is on the Ropes]( By Alexander C. Kafka [image] Academics are caught in a pincer grip from the political right and left. DATA [State Funding for Higher Ed Increased in 2020 for the 8th Straight Year. It Won’t Make Up for Past Cuts.]( By Audrey Williams June [image] In 25 states, students now account for at least half of total education revenue. Paid for and Created by Rochester Institute of Technology [Preparing Students for Successful Careers in the Emerging Economy]( To meet the needs of a new economy, RIT has created New Economy Majors, a future-focused, multidisciplinary category of study, designed with flexibility and specific industries in mind to promote student success. ADVERTISEMENT [Advertisement]( Job Announcement Instructor - Marketing & Supply Chain Management at Southeastern Louisiana University.[Visit jobs.chronicle.com]( for more details. Paid for and Created by Lamar University [Lamar University implements virtual solutions during remarkable times]( Expanding their recruitment reach into the virtual realm, Lamar University’s Enrollment Services team launched virtual events and text campaigns to target tech-savvy students, showcasing the institution as a place where they can attain their life goals. Today's Global Campus Strategies for Reviving International Enrollments and Study Abroad Pandemic travel restrictions cut both ways, causing international enrollments to plummet and limiting study-abroad opportunities. This Chronicle report provides an in-depth look at how the global education experience has changed and offers strategies for assessing and adapting programs to ensure students' exposure to cultural and global diversity. [Order your copy today.]( Job Opportunities [Search the Chronicle's jobs database]( to view the latest jobs in higher education. What did you think of today’s newsletter? [Strongly disliked]( // [It was OK]( // [Loved it](. [logo]( This newsletter was sent to {EMAIL}. [Manage]( your newsletter preferences, [stop receiving]( this email, or [view]( our privacy policy. © 2021 [The Chronicle of Higher Education]( 1255 23rd Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20037